Prediction market ETFs: every fund filed so far

Not yet. As of Nov 12, 2026, 39 funds have been registered by 5 issuers and none of them trades. The most recent filing is dated Nov 4, 2026. Each would hold event contracts, which settle at $1.00 if a stated thing happens and $0.00 if it does not.

No launch date has been announced. As of Nov 12, 2026 the earliest filings, from GraniteShares and Hedgeye, ask to take effect on Nov 20, 2026, and the latest asks for Dec 28, 2026. Issuers often push these dates back, and going effective is not the same as starting to trade.

Each filing asks to take effect 75 days after it is filed, and an issuer that is not ready files a 485BXT naming a later date. As of Nov 12, 2026 the 10 prediction market filings carry 61 such delays between them; GraniteShares' filing of Feb 17, 2026 has been pushed back 18 times. The filings do not say why.

Not one that trades. As of Nov 12, 2026, 18 funds on the 2026 and 2028 US elections have been filed, listed on election ETFs, and none of them trades yet.

A fund that holds event contracts rather than shares or bonds. An event contract is a derivative settling at exactly $1.00 or $0.00 on whether a stated thing happens, so its price in between reads as the market's estimate of the chance of it.

Not yet. As of Nov 12, 2026 none of these registrations is effective. Each is filed as a post-effective amendment marked Subject to Completion, which is the stage before a fund may be sold, and none states a fee. Each asks to take effect on a date, and the issuers have moved those dates 61 times.

No fund has been filed that holds Kalshi itself. The funds here hold event contracts listed on a CFTC-regulated designated contract market, which is the kind of venue Kalshi operates, but none of them holds shares in the exchange.

No. As of Nov 12, 2026, 39 funds have been registered by 5 issuers and none of them trades. The most recent filing is dated Nov 4, 2026 and every one is marked Subject to Completion, so none has a ticker or a fee yet.

A derivative that settles at exactly $1.00 if a stated thing happens and $0.00 if it does not. Its price in between is where the market puts the chance of the event, so it reads like a probability. They trade on a CFTC-regulated designated contract market.

The contracts settle at $0.00. The filings say the fund may lose substantially all of its value, which is why these are filed in pairs: one fund for each side of the same question.

Each of these funds holds its contracts through a wholly-owned Cayman Islands subsidiary rather than directly, which is the structure the filings describe.

Bitwise, Direxion, GraniteShares, Hedgeye, Roundhill.

16 distinct outcomes: US election, 18 funds; Bitcoin and Ethereum price, 4 funds; oil price, 2 funds; recession and tech layoffs, 8 funds. 7 further funds hold a portfolio of contracts rather than one event.