When will these funds launch?

No launch date has been announced. As of Oct 9, 2026 the filings ask to take effect on these dates: Hedgeye, Oct 16, 2026; Direxion, Dec 5, 2026. Issuers often push these dates back with a further filing, and going effective is not the same as starting to trade.

How would these funds pay?

Each holds a portfolio of event contracts rather than one, so no single outcome settles the fund.

Prediction marketsNone trades yet

Prediction market ETFs holding a portfolio

As of Oct 9, 2026, 6 prediction market funds holding a portfolio of contracts have been filed with the SEC by 2 issuers, and none of them trades.

Their filings have been pushed back 2 times. The earliest of these filings can go effective on Oct 16, 2026, the date Hedgeye has asked for after a delay it filed. An issuer can push that date back with a further filing, and going effective is not the same as starting to trade.

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How a binary fund pays

If it happens

$1.00

If it does not

$0.00

funds filed

issuers

How a binary fund pays, in full →

Every fund filed, as a table

Prediction market ETFs holding a portfolio, as of Sep 25, 2026. Source: ETFIQ.

Outcome	Issuer	Fund	Ticker	Filed	Can go effective
AI Doomsday Prediction Markets	Direxion	Direxion AI Doomsday Prediction Markets ETF	not assigned	Sep 21, 2026	Dec 5, 2026
AI Prosperity Prediction Markets	Direxion	Direxion AI Prosperity Prediction Markets ETF	not assigned	Sep 21, 2026	Dec 5, 2026
Democratic Party	Hedgeye	Hedgeye Democratic Party ETF	HDEM	Jul 23, 2026	Oct 16, 2026
El Niño	Direxion	Direxion El Niño ETF	not assigned	Sep 21, 2026	Dec 5, 2026
La Niña	Direxion	Direxion La Niña ETF	not assigned	Sep 21, 2026	Dec 5, 2026
Republican Party	Hedgeye	Hedgeye Republican Party ETF	HREP	Jul 23, 2026	Oct 16, 2026

Questions people ask

Is there a prediction market ETF holding a portfolio of contracts?: Not one that trades. As of Oct 9, 2026, 6 prediction market funds holding a portfolio of contracts have been filed with the SEC by 2 issuers (Direxion, Hedgeye), and none of them trades yet.
When will these funds launch?: No launch date has been announced. As of Oct 9, 2026 the filings ask to take effect on these dates: Hedgeye, Oct 16, 2026; Direxion, Dec 5, 2026. Issuers often push these dates back with a further filing, and going effective is not the same as starting to trade.
How would these funds pay?: Each holds a portfolio of event contracts rather than one, so no single outcome settles the fund.

Read from these filings

Direxion Shares ETF Trust, form 485APOS, filed Sep 21, 20260001193125-26-396805 ↗ETF Opportunities Trust, form 485APOS, filed Jul 23, 20260001771146-26-001498 ↗

Every name, date and figure on this page is read from the registration statements above. Where a filing leaves a value blank, this page says so rather than showing a placeholder. None of these funds trades, so there are no prices, fees or returns here.

The issuers

Direxion on ETFIQ

Hedgeye on ETFIQ

Where to next

US election prediction ETFs→Bitcoin and Ethereum price prediction ETFs→Oil price prediction ETFs→Recession and tech layoffs prediction ETFs→All prediction market ETFs38 filed →How a binary fund pays→

Where these figures came from

SEC EDGAR, full-text search of fund filings ↗SEC Form N-PORT, what a fund filed it holds ↗Rule 19a-1, what a distribution notice must say ↗

ETFIQ links to the documents behind every figure; a link is not an endorsement. ETFIQ is an independent publisher and makes no recommendations; every figure is calculated from published data. Standards and sources

Cite this page

ETFIQ, Prediction market ETFs holding a portfolio, data as of Sep 25, 2026. https://etfiq.com/prediction-markets/portfolios/

Open data →

Free to use with attribution for figures ETFIQ computes; issuer data stays under its owner's terms. The underlying files are at Open data.