Data as of Nov 4, 2026.
CTA vs TFPN: Correlation to the S&P 500
Over the year to Nov 4, 2026, CTA moved less with the S&P 500 than TFPN: correlation −0.14 against +0.75.
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Net assets: $1.3bn on Nov 3, 2026 for Simplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF, and $170m on Jun 30, 2026 for Blueprint Chesapeake Multi-Asset Trend ETF.
CTA in the 26 weeks SPY fell, year to Nov 4, 2026: SPY averaged −1.07%, CTA −0.06%.
TFPN in the 26 weeks SPY fell, year to Nov 4, 2026: SPY averaged −1.07%, TFPN −1.32%.
Pair scorecard
CTA costs 0.27 points a year less; their one-year returns differ by 9.6 points.
| Measure | CTA | TFPN |
|---|---|---|
| Return | ||
| Total return, 1 year | +4.6% | +14.2% |
| Against its benchmark | ||
| Treasury bills, 52 weeks | +3.7% | |
| Cost and size | ||
| Expense ratio | 0.86% | 1.13% |
| Net assets, CTA as of Nov 3, 2026 and TFPN as of Jun 30, 2026 | $1.3bn | $170m |
| Holdings | ||
| Holdings in common | not published | |
| Risk | ||
| Beta to the S&P 500 | −0.30: about 0.30% for each 1% | +1.00: about 1.00% for each 1% |
| Its average week when the S&P 500 fell | fell 0.06% | fell 1.32% |
How much it diversifies a stock portfolio, ranked against 17 systematic trend alternatives ETFs with a full year. 100 is best. How it is computed
One year of weekly moves against the S&P 500, within one strategy; it ignores what the fund returned. All alternatives ETFs ranked by it →
Risk and return
Jul 21, 2023 to Oct 30, 2026 · 171 weekly returnsFrom Jul 2023 to Oct 2026, CTA returned more: +45.3% to +18.9%. TFPN swung less: 10.7% to 17.2%. TFPN fell less at its worst: −15.4% to −19.0%.
Full scorecard
9 measures, with how each is measured Open ↓
| Measure | CTA | TFPN | Edge | How it is measured |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return | ||||
| Total return | +45.3% | +18.9% | CTA | Price change plus distributions, reinvested. |
| Annualized | +12.0% | +5.4% | CTA | Total return as a yearly rate. |
| Price return | +19.1% | +16.7% | CTA | Price change alone, distributions left out. |
| Risk | ||||
| Volatility | 17.2% | 10.7% | TFPN | Spread of weekly returns, annualized. Lower is steadier. |
| Downside deviation | 11.6% | 7.9% | TFPN | Like volatility, counting only weeks below the Treasury bill rate. |
| Max drawdown | −19.0% | −15.4% | TFPN | Deepest fall from a high to the low after it. |
| Risk-adjusted | ||||
| Sharpe | 0.48 | 0.12 | CTA | Return above Treasury bills per unit of volatility. |
| Sortino | 0.71 | 0.17 | CTA | Return above Treasury bills per unit of downside deviation. |
| Calmar | 0.63 | 0.35 | CTA | Annualized return divided by the max drawdown. |
Computed by ETFIQ from Tiingo daily prices and ETFIQ's distribution records, 171 weekly returns. Cash rate: the 13-week Treasury bill.
Window by window
| Total return | vs its benchmark | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Window | CTA | TFPN | CTA | TFPN |
| 3 months | +6.2% | −3.4% | not measured | −3.3 pts vs VOO |
| 6 months | −10.8% | −8.5% | not measured | −13.5 pts vs VOO |
| 1 year | +4.6% | +14.2% | not measured | −0.6 pts vs VOO |
| 3 years | +22.3% | +18.6% | not measured | −64.7 pts vs VOO |
| Since launchNot the same days: CTA Mar 2022 · TFPN Jul 2023 | +37.8% | +17.8% | not measured | −61.6 pts vs VOO |
Side by side
As of Nov 4, 2026. Source: ETFIQ.
One strategy, two funds
CTA and TFPN both run a managed futures strategy. Over the same 52 weeks to Nov 4, 2026, CTA’s weekly returns had a correlation of −0.14 with the S&P 500 and TFPN’s +0.75. In the 26 weeks the index fell, by 1.07% a week on average, CTA averaged −0.06% and TFPN −1.32%. Over the same weeks, CTA finished level with cash and TFPN finished 10.8 points ahead of cash.
Client brief:
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CTA
CTA is a managed futures fund. ETFIQ measures what every alternatives fund is sold on: whether it moves differently from the stock market. Over the year to Nov 4, 2026, its weekly returns had a correlation of −0.14 with the S&P 500’s and a beta of −0.30, so for each 1% the index moved it moved about 0.30% the other way. The S&P 500 fell in 26 of those 52 weeks, by 1.07% on average. In the same weeks CTA fell 0.06% on average, a down-week capture of 5.3%. Over the same 52 weeks CTA returned +3.6% and a Treasury bill fund +3.7%, so it finished level with cash.
TFPN
TFPN is a managed futures fund. Over the year to Nov 4, 2026, its weekly returns had a correlation of +0.75 with the S&P 500’s and a beta of +1.00, so for each 1% the index moved it moved about 1.00% the same way. In the same weeks TFPN fell 1.32% on average, a down-week capture of 123.6%. Over the same 52 weeks TFPN returned +14.4% and a Treasury bill fund +3.7%, so it finished 10.8 percentage points ahead of cash.
Questions people ask
- Which moved less with the S&P 500, CTA or TFPN?
- Over the 52 weeks to Nov 4, 2026, CTA’s weekly returns had a correlation of −0.14 with the S&P 500 and TFPN’s +0.75, so CTA moved less with the index.
- Which did better when the S&P 500 fell, CTA or TFPN?
- In the 26 weeks the S&P 500 fell, by 1.07% a week on average, CTA averaged −0.06% and TFPN −1.32%, so CTA returned more in those weeks.
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How this is computed
It is a place in a set, not a rating or a recommendation.
Every number is an ETFIQ calculation with distributions reinvested.
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ETFIQ, CTA against TFPN, data as of Nov 4, 2026. https://etfiq.com/compare/alternatives/cta-vs-tfpn
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