5 ETFIQ benchmarks for tactical and dynamic models. The rule, as the method states it, with x the stock share: “Start from S(x). At each month end, each sleeve is tested on its own total-return index (built from the same daily returns the engine uses): if that index is at or above its average over the last 10 month ends, the sleeve is held; otherwise it moves to BIL until a later month end passes the test.” Launched on Oct 3, 2026.
Dots: each member’s stock share, measured through its funds’ holdings as of Jun 30 to Jul 31, 2026. Labels: each rule’s stock share. A return marked * is hypothetical.
Over 10 years to Sep 30, 2026, the 5 tactical benchmarks returned +3.22% to +9.76% a year, hypothetical.
One sentence, recomputed every trading night. A benchmark is a rule, not a recommendation.
Family grid
Tactical family · base weights, before each month’s trend test
Weights by sleeve and by fund, then total returns: YTD to Oct 7, 2026, the trailing windows to Sep 30, 2026, annualised over 3 years and more. A row marked * is hypothetical as a whole.
Sleeve · fund
Tactical from 20
Tactical from 40
Tactical from 60
Tactical from 80
Tactical from 95
Global stocks
20%
40%
60%
80%
95%
VT
20%
40%
60%
80%
95%
T-bills
80%
60%
40%
20%
5%
BIL
80%
60%
40%
20%
5%
Stocks · bonds
20 · 80
40 · 60
60 · 40
80 · 20
95 · 5
YTD*hypothetical
+3.04%
+5.78%
+8.54%
+11.33%
+13.44%
1 year*hypothetical
+4.14%
+7.17%
+10.22%
+13.32%
+15.66%
3 years, annualised*hypothetical
+6.05%
+8.50%
+10.97%
+13.45%
+15.33%
5 years, annualised*hypothetical
+2.65%
+4.31%
+5.95%
+7.58%
+8.80%
10 years, annualised*hypothetical
+3.22%
+4.99%
+6.75%
+8.48%
+9.76%
The reference
Strategic 20
Strategic 40
Strategic 60
Strategic 80
Strategic 95
1 year, percentage points against the reference*hypothetical
2.47 ahead
1.90 ahead
1.29 ahead
0.67 ahead
0.17 ahead
Construction rule.The family’s rule, as the method states it, with x the stock share: “Start from S(x). At each month end, each sleeve is tested on its own total-return index (built from the same daily returns the engine uses): if that index is at or above its average over the last 10 month ends, the sleeve is held; otherwise it moves to BIL until a later month end passes the test.”Reset to each new allocation’s weights, 192 of them since Nov 1, 2010, one each month at the close of the trading day after its month-end test.*Returns before Oct 5, 2026 are hypothetical.The reference: ETFIQ Strategic at each member’s stock share; at 100%, All US stocks or All stocks, by the measured US share of the member’s stocks. The difference is the member’s printed 1-year total return less the reference’s.
The five members through each stress window
Rule version 1 · 11 windows since Jan 4, 2010
Every fall of VT of 10% or more and of AGG of 5% or more since Jan 4, 2010, found by a written rule on every run and chosen by no one. For each benchmark, its return from the close of the window’s first day to the close of its last, what $10,000 became, and its largest drawdown inside the window. A window outside a benchmark’s history, or only partly inside it, shows no figure for it: a window is never cut to fit.
Jan 11 to Feb 8, 2010
VT fell 10.76% from its peak, back at it on Apr 1, 2010
$10,000history starts Nov 1, 2010; the window ends before it
Member
Return
On $10,000
Max DD
Tactical from 20
not published
Tactical from 40
not published
Tactical from 60
not published
Tactical from 80
not published
Tactical from 95
not published
Apr 14 to Jun 7, 2010
VT fell 16.44% from its peak, back at it on Oct 13, 2010
$10,000history starts Nov 1, 2010; the window ends before it
Member
Return
On $10,000
Max DD
Tactical from 20
not published
Tactical from 40
not published
Tactical from 60
not published
Tactical from 80
not published
Tactical from 95
not published
Apr 29 to Oct 3, 2011
VT fell 23.83% from its peak, back at it on Jan 2, 2013
$10,000
Member
Return
On $10,000
Max DD
Tactical from 20
+1.46%
$10,146
−2.42%
Tactical from 40
−2.31%
$9,769
−6.29%
Tactical from 60
−6.00%
$9,400
−10.84%
Tactical from 80
−9.60%
$9,040
−15.37%
Tactical from 95
−12.25%
$8,775
−18.68%
May 2 to Sep 5, 2013
AGG fell 5.14% from its peak, back at it on May 14, 2014
$10,000
Member
Return
On $10,000
Max DD
Tactical from 20
−1.34%
$9,866
−2.86%
Tactical from 40
−0.57%
$9,943
−4.19%
Tactical from 60
+0.19%
$10,019
−5.71%
Tactical from 80
+0.93%
$10,093
−7.22%
Tactical from 95
+1.47%
$10,147
−8.33%
May 21, 2015 to Feb 11, 2016
VT fell 19.79% from its peak, back at it on Dec 13, 2016
$10,000
Member
Return
On $10,000
Max DD
Tactical from 20
−2.74%
$9,726
−4.28%
Tactical from 40
−5.30%
$9,470
−6.40%
Tactical from 60
−7.83%
$9,217
−8.81%
Tactical from 80
−10.32%
$8,968
−11.32%
Tactical from 95
−12.17%
$8,783
−13.19%
Jan 26 to Dec 24, 2018
VT fell 19.97% from its peak, back at it on Oct 28, 2019
$10,000
Member
Return
On $10,000
Max DD
Tactical from 20
−1.63%
$9,837
−2.66%
Tactical from 40
−3.54%
$9,646
−5.27%
Tactical from 60
−5.46%
$9,454
−7.87%
Tactical from 80
−7.37%
$9,263
−10.45%
Tactical from 95
−8.80%
$9,120
−12.38%
Feb 12 to Mar 23, 2020
VT fell 34.23% from its peak, back at it on Aug 24, 2020
$10,000
Member
Return
On $10,000
Max DD
Tactical from 20
−2.57%
$9,743
−7.07%
Tactical from 40
−4.05%
$9,595
−6.74%
Tactical from 60
−5.52%
$9,448
−7.21%
Tactical from 80
−6.99%
$9,301
−8.55%
Tactical from 95
−8.09%
$9,191
−10.44%
Mar 6 to Mar 18, 2020
AGG fell 9.58% from its peak, back at it on May 21, 2020
$10,000
Member
Return
On $10,000
Max DD
Tactical from 20
−7.07%
$9,293
−7.07%
Tactical from 40
−5.29%
$9,471
−5.29%
Tactical from 60
−3.50%
$9,650
−3.50%
Tactical from 80
−1.70%
$9,830
−1.70%
Tactical from 95
−0.34%
$9,966
−0.38%
Aug 4, 2020 to Oct 20, 2022
AGG fell 18.44% from its peak, not yet back at it
$10,000
Member
Return
On $10,000
Max DD
Tactical from 20
+1.79%
$10,179
−4.11%
Tactical from 40
+9.23%
$10,923
−5.11%
Tactical from 60
+17.05%
$11,705
−6.30%
Tactical from 80
+25.27%
$12,527
−7.58%
Tactical from 95
+31.69%
$13,169
−8.55%
Nov 8, 2021 to Oct 12, 2022
VT fell 26.39% from its peak, back at it on Jan 29, 2024
$10,000
Member
Return
On $10,000
Max DD
Tactical from 20
−2.40%
$9,760
−4.11%
Tactical from 40
−2.79%
$9,721
−5.11%
Tactical from 60
−3.20%
$9,680
−6.30%
Tactical from 80
−3.64%
$9,636
−7.58%
Tactical from 95
−3.99%
$9,601
−8.55%
Feb 18 to Apr 8, 2025
VT fell 16.51% from its peak, back at it on May 16, 2025
$10,000
Member
Return
On $10,000
Max DD
Tactical from 20
−0.39%
$9,961
−1.42%
Tactical from 40
−1.76%
$9,824
−2.17%
Tactical from 60
−3.11%
$9,689
−3.78%
Tactical from 80
−4.45%
$9,555
−5.49%
Tactical from 95
−5.44%
$9,456
−6.75%
Questions people ask about the tactical benchmarks
What is an ETFIQ benchmark?
A rule over broad, low-cost ETFs, written down before its returns were looked at, that measures model portfolios the way the S&P 500 measures large US stocks. Its weights, rule and returns are published.
Can I invest in an ETFIQ benchmark?
No. A benchmark is a published yardstick, not a fund, and ETFIQ publishes no trades for any of them. It takes no payment from the issuer of any fund a benchmark holds.
Why are some returns hypothetical?
Each family’s rule is frozen on a stated date. Returns before it apply today’s rule and funds to earlier prices, which is look-ahead; returns from it are tracked. The price source does not carry funds that closed before 2016, so nothing here is free of survivorship bias.
Free to use with attribution for figures ETFIQ computes; issuer data stays under its owner's terms. The underlying files are at Open data. Figures before Oct 5, 2026 are hypothetical.
