Prices to Nov 3, 2026 · paper tracking starts Nov 4, 2026.

Strategy Lab · 2x single-stock

Leverage with a trend filter

Based on Gayed & Bilello, 2016

2x single-stockHigh riskPartly inHypotheticalNext rebalance Dec 1, 2026

At the Nov 3, 2026 close Leverage with a trend filter is partly in and holds MSFU 13%, NVDL 13%, TSLL 12% and 1 more, with 50% in cash. Since the funds listed on Oct 10, 2024, it returned +2.6% a year with a deepest fall of −39.5%.

IQ · Nov 3, 2026

Since the funds listed, Oct 10, 2024 to Nov 3, 2026

Paper recordNot startedStarts Nov 4, 2026

Since listing, a year+2.6%vs SPY +14.9%

Deepest fall−39.5%since Oct 10

Sharpe0.14517 days

Turnover173%a year

Funds5held now

Back-testMostly simulated, and these stocks are today’s winners picked with hindsight.

Back-test, a year+42.5%Apr 2013 to Nov 3, 2026

Max drawdown−45.3%back-test

Sharpe1.09back-test

Growth of $10,000

Oct 4, 2024 to Nov 3, 2026 · after costs

Nov 3, 2026Back-testStrategy$10,691+6.9%SPY$13,468+34.7%

Mostly simulated before the funds listed (Oct 2024)

$10,000$12,000$16,000$13.5k$10.7k

Oct 2024Mar 2025Aug 2025Jan 2026Jun 2026Nov 2026

StrategySPYBack-testPaper record

2x funds reset daily, so over longer periods they can return more or less than twice their stock.

Drawdown

Fall from the last high

Strategy worst −35.4%SPY worst −18.3%

−30%−20%−10%0%

Oct 2024Mar 2025Aug 2025Jan 2026Jun 2026Nov 2026

Rolling 12-month return

−27.6%+13.6%

−20%0%+20%+40%+60%

Oct 2025Feb 2026Jun 2026Nov 2026

Rolling 12-month Sharpe

−1.010.79

−1.00.01.02.0

Oct 2025Feb 2026Jun 2026Nov 2026

How daily resets erode 2x funds

12 months to Nov 3, 2026

Fund2 × stock vs fund, measuredErosion

AAPU

2 × AAPL +47.6%AAPU +31.8%

−15.8 pts

AMZU

2 × AMZN −2.6%AMZU −21.3%

−18.7 pts

GGLL

2 × GOOGL −2.1%GGLL −21.2%

−19.2 pts

MSFU

2 × MSFT +3.2%MSFU −15.4%

−18.6 pts

FBL

2 × META −4.6%FBL −26.8%

−22.2 pts

NVDL

2 × NVDA +0.3%NVDL −21.7%

−22.0 pts

TSLL

2 × TSLA −29.8%TSLL −48.2%

−18.4 pts

AVL

2 × AVGO −15.4%AVL −38.7%

−23.3 pts

Holdings now

Nov 3, 2026 close

CashCash and T-bills49.8%MSFUDirexion Daily MSFT Bull 2X ETF13.1%NVDLGraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF13.0%TSLLDirexion Daily TSLA Bull 2X ETF12.1%AAPUDirexion Daily AAPL Bull 2X ETF11.9%

Signals

Hold each 2x single-stock fund while its stock trades above its 200-day average, else hold cash.

5 in · 3 out

Nearest to flipping

FundVs averageRankDistance to flipState

NVDL+1.2%−1.2% to flipIn

FBL−1.6%+1.7% to flipOut

AMZU+3.0%−2.9% to flipIn

TSLL+3.5%−3.4% to flipIn

AVL−9.4%+10.3% to flipOut

FundVs averageRankDistance to flipState

AAPU+11.7%−10.5% to flipIn

AMZU+3.0%−2.9% to flipIn

GGLL−17.6%+21.4% to flipOut

MSFU+19.1%−16.0% to flipIn

FBL−1.6%+1.7% to flipOut

NVDL+1.2%−1.2% to flipIn

TSLL+3.5%−3.4% to flipIn

AVL−9.4%+10.3% to flipOut

Each bar shows how far a fund is from flipping. Nov 3, 2026 close.

Trade blotter

Points (pts) are percentage points.

Date	Action	Fund	Price	Weight	Reason	Record
Oct 30, 2026	In	TSLL	at close	12.5%	Rule added it. Next close, after costs.	Back-test
Oct 30, 2026	Out	GGLL	at close	0.0%	Rule dropped it. Next close, after costs.	Back-test
Oct 30, 2026	Out	FBL	at close	0.0%	Rule dropped it. Next close, after costs.	Back-test
Oct 30, 2026	Out	AMZU	at close	0.0%	Rule dropped it. Next close, after costs.	Back-test
Sep 30, 2026	In	FBL	at close	12.5%	Rule added it. Next close, after costs.	Back-test
Sep 30, 2026	Out	AVL	at close	0.0%	Rule dropped it. Next close, after costs.	Back-test
Jul 31, 2026	Out	TSLL	at close	0.0%	Rule dropped it. Next close, after costs.	Back-test
Jul 31, 2026	In	MSFU	at close	12.5%	Rule added it. Next close, after costs.	Back-test
May 29, 2026	In	TSLL	at close	12.5%	Rule added it. Next close, after costs.	Back-test
Apr 30, 2026	In	NVDL	at close	12.5%	Rule added it. Next close, after costs.	Back-test
Apr 30, 2026	In	AVL	at close	12.5%	Rule added it. Next close, after costs.	Back-test
Apr 30, 2026	In	AMZU	at close	12.5%	Rule added it. Next close, after costs.	Back-test
Mar 31, 2026	Out	TSLL	at close	0.0%	Rule dropped it. Next close, after costs.	Back-test
Mar 31, 2026	Out	NVDL	at close	0.0%	Rule dropped it. Next close, after costs.	Back-test
Mar 31, 2026	Out	AVL	at close	0.0%	Rule dropped it. Next close, after costs.	Back-test
Feb 27, 2026	Out	FBL	at close	0.0%	Rule dropped it. Next close, after costs.	Back-test
Feb 27, 2026	Out	AMZU	at close	0.0%	Rule dropped it. Next close, after costs.	Back-test
Jan 30, 2026	Out	MSFU	at close	0.0%	Rule dropped it. Next close, after costs.	Back-test
Jan 30, 2026	In	FBL	at close	12.5%	Rule added it. Next close, after costs.	Back-test
Oct 31, 2025	Out	FBL	at close	0.0%	Rule dropped it. Next close, after costs.	Back-test
Aug 29, 2025	In	TSLL	at close	12.5%	Rule added it. Next close, after costs.	Back-test
Aug 29, 2025	In	AAPU	at close	12.5%	Rule added it. Next close, after costs.	Back-test
Jul 31, 2025	Out	TSLL	at close	0.0%	Rule dropped it. Next close, after costs.	Back-test
May 30, 2025	In	TSLL	at close	12.5%	Rule added it. Next close, after costs.	Back-test

No paper trades yet: the first night is Nov 4, 2026. Back-test changes below, after costs.

Monthly returns

% · Last 12 months, the latest to Nov 3

Dec 2025	Jan 2026	Feb 2026	Mar 2026	Apr 2026	May 2026	Jun 2026	Jul 2026	Aug 2026	Sep 2026	Oct 2026	Nov 2026
−4.7	−3.6	−12.1	−6.8	11.8	6.2	−12.1	−1.1	0.8	−0.3	−11.3	−1.2

	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Year	SPY
2026*	−3.6	−12.1	−6.8	11.8	6.2	−12.1	−1.1	0.8	−0.3	−11.3	−1.2		−28.0	11.5
2025	1.0	−16.4	−16.1	−0.3	7.2	11.6	9.9	−1.6	18.7	10.1	−1.3	−4.7	12.4	15.9
2024	3.9	18.9	5.9	−6.4	12.9	18.2	−7.0	−0.7	10.8	−2.6	13.6	19.0	120.1	26.8
2023	1.3	2.4	12.5	3.8	21.0	12.8	7.6	−1.4	−10.1	−4.2	14.4	10.1	90.7	26.2
2022	−15.0	−4.7	11.0	−22.6	3.2	−3.7	−0.2	−0.3	0.3	0.3	0.3	0.7	−30.0	−18.2
2021	2.2	−2.1	−1.8	11.8	−3.3	14.8	3.8	11.0	−10.0	25.3	10.8	0.2	76.1	28.7
2020	18.1	−5.0	−12.6	28.0	10.6	18.3	19.7	43.1	−15.4	−7.0	22.9	10.3	199.8	18.0
2019	−0.8	3.0	2.7	9.9	−14.3	3.8	0.0	−4.4	0.5	9.8	9.3	11.9	32.5	32.8
2018	17.1	−2.8	−13.8	−1.4	5.7	−3.3	−0.4	12.1	−0.8	−17.2	−1.0	−1.4	−11.5	−5.4
2017	7.8	3.6	8.4	6.6	17.8	−4.1	6.6	6.3	−3.2	15.1	0.0	−3.6	77.2	21.7
2016	−10.8	−4.1	12.7	−2.7	9.8	−5.2	9.6	2.1	4.4	0.0	1.3	5.2	21.5	12.0
2015	−3.8	13.8	−3.2	0.5	6.5	−3.8	4.9	−8.5	−0.5	10.2	5.9	3.6	26.1	−0.2
2014	3.8	19.7	−7.3	−0.3	7.6	5.9	−1.8	15.0	−0.9	−0.9	7.1	−5.4	46.9	15.6
2013				10.1	22.4	0.0	5.2	8.0	14.4	6.7	−1.0	13.8	110.9	19.7

Scorecard

vs SPY · since the funds listed Oct 18, 2024 to Nov 3, 2026 · after costs

+3.1% a year vs SPY +14.4%.Max drawdown −35.0% vs −16.9%.

Return

MeasureStrategySPYEdge

Total return+6.5%+32.0%SPY

Annualised+3.1%+14.4%SPY

Risk

MeasureStrategySPYEdge

Volatility34.7%14.9%SPY

Max drawdown−35.0%−16.9%SPY

Upside capture265.8%100.0%Strategy

Downside capture161.1%100.0%SPY

Beta1.511.00Higher

Risk-adjusted

MeasureStrategySPYEdge

Sharpe ratio0.140.71SPY

Sortino ratio0.221.08SPY

Calmar ratio0.090.86SPY

Alpha, a year−11.1%n/aNot significant

Costs and taxes

MeasureStrategySPYEdge

Turnover, a year173%n/a

Cost drag, a year−0.65%n/a

Tax drag estimaten/an/a

Ratios use the 13-week Treasury bill rate, 4.0% a year, from the Treasury’s daily rates. Tax is not measured. Method

The Skeptic's take

0 daysof paper record. The rest is a back-test.

t = −0.59Alpha of −11.1% a year is not significant, since listing.

173%turnover a year. Costs take 0.7 points.

MethodSource, rules, funds and limitsOpen ↓

SourceGayed, M. A. and Bilello, C. V. (2016). Leverage for the Long Run: A Systematic Approach to Managing Risk and Magnifying Returns in Stocks. SSRN 2741701. ↗

VersionRules v1 · sha ba68a516 · data to Nov 3, 2026How we test strategies

Exact rules

Hold each 2x single-stock fund while its stock trades above its 200-day average, else hold cash.
A rule reads the close of the last trading day of the month and trades at the next close.
The universe is 8 funds; the benchmark is SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY).
It is checked at each month end.

What we cannot measure

The paper applies the filter to a 3x S&P 500 index; this applies it to single-stock 2x funds, which no paper tests.
Simulated days do not charge the financing cost of the borrowed half or swap spreads, so they run high.
Taxes.
The universe is fixed in hindsight: the funds named are those that exist and are large in 2026, so every result flatters a strategy a reader could have run only with this list in 2013.

Fund list · 8 funds

AAPU AMZU GGLL MSFU FBL NVDL TSLL AVL

Cite this pageCitation, APA and Markdown

ETFIQ Strategy Lab, Leverage with a trend filter, data as of Nov 3, 2026. https://etfiq.com/models/strategies/leveraged-trend-filter/

Computed by ETFIQ from Tiingo daily prices. Data sourced by Tiingo.

Open data Free to use with attribution

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