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What alternatives ETFs did when stocks fell

Of the 57 alternatives ETFs ETFIQ measured over the year to Oct 6, 2026, 12 rose on average in the weeks the S&P 500 fell, and the median fund fell 40% as much as the index. These funds are sold on behaving differently from stocks, and this is that promise measured.

The S&P 500 fell in 24 of the 52 weeks, by 1.13% in its average down week. Down-week capture is a fund's own average in those weeks as a share of that, so below zero means it rose. Holding up is not the same as earning. 45 of the 57 finished ahead of T-bills over the same weeks, and 8 of the 12 that rose also did that. The strategies are not alike. The median hedged equity fund had a correlation of +0.91 with the S&P 500 and the median managed futures fund +0.46, so the table by strategy comes first.

Rose when the S&P 500 fell, by strategy

12 of 57 alternatives ETFs rose on average in the weeks the S&P 500 fell, over the year to Oct 6, 2026.

ETFIQ Narrative

Over the year to October 6, 2026, ETFIQ tracked 57 alternatives ETFs through the 24 weeks in which the S&P 500 fell, an average drop of 1.13% in those weeks. Twelve of the 57 funds rose, on average, during those same weeks, and across all 57 the median fund's down-week capture was 40%, meaning the typical fund moved about two-fifths as much as the index on the way down. These funds are generally sold on the idea that they behave differently from stocks when stocks are falling, and the capture numbers show what that difference looked like in practice over this period.

The behavior varied widely by strategy, which is why the by-strategy table is worth reading before the fund list. Hedged equity, the largest group with 20 funds, had a median correlation of +0.91 with the S&P 500 and a median down-week capture of 59.5%, with only 3 of 20 funds rising in down weeks. Managed futures, the second largest group with 17 funds, had a much lower median correlation of +0.46 and a median capture of 36.0%, with 4 of 17 rising. Long-short equity's 8 funds showed a median correlation of +0.64 and capture of 57.7%. Multi-strategy, event driven, market neutral and global macro each had smaller counts, and their numbers ranged further: market neutral's two funds had a median correlation of −0.38 and a median capture of −83.8%, both funds rising in down weeks, while global macro's single fund had a correlation of +0.85 and a capture of 88.3%, finishing without a down-week gain.

At the individual fund level, the range was wide. BTAL, a market neutral fund, had a correlation of −0.69 and an average return of +1.55% in weeks the S&P 500 fell, for a down-week capture of −136.9%. At the other end, QTR, a hedged equity fund, had a correlation of +0.92 and an average return of −1.62% in those same weeks, a capture of 143.1%. Between these extremes sit funds such as CTA (managed futures, −66.0% capture), FLSP (multi-strategy, −20.0% capture) and MRGR (event driven, −10.4% capture), each reflecting a different relationship to the broader equity market's declines.

Holding up during down weeks is a separate question from whether a fund kept pace with cash over the full year. Of the 57 funds, 45 finished ahead of T-bills over the same 52 weeks, and among the 12 funds that rose during down weeks, 8 also finished ahead of T-bills. Some funds combined a negative down-week capture with a result behind T-bills, such as TAIL, which had a capture of −8.0% but finished 18.9 points behind T-bills, and QBER, with a capture of −15.2% and a result 3.9 points behind T-bills. Others, like KMLM, posted both a negative capture (−52.7%) and a result 19.1 points ahead of T-bills.

Readers working with the live desk can look up any ticker in the full table to check its own correlation, down-week capture and T-bill comparison number directly.

Ahead of T-bills, by strategy

45 of 57 alternatives ETFs finished ahead of T-bills over the year to Oct 6, 2026.

By strategy, most funds first

StrategyFundsRose when it fellMedian correlationMedian down-week captureAhead of T-bills
Hedged equity203 of 20+0.9159.5%14 of 20
Managed futures174 of 17+0.4636.0%16 of 17
Long-short equity81 of 8+0.6457.7%7 of 8
Multi-strategy61 of 6+0.4432.5%5 of 6
Event driven31 of 3+0.101.6%1 of 3
Market neutral22 of 2−0.38−83.8%1 of 2
Global macro10 of 1+0.8588.3%1 of 1

Every fund with a full year, held up best first

TickerFundStrategyCorrelationAverage week when SPY fellDown-week captureAgainst T-bills
BTALAGF U.S. Market Neutral Anti-Beta FundMarket neutral−0.69+1.55%−136.9%−25.5 pts
CTASimplify Managed Futures Strategy ETFManaged futures−0.20+0.75%−66.0%+4.5 pts
KMLMKraneShares Mount Lucas Managed Futures IndeManaged futures−0.12+0.60%−52.7%+19.1 pts
MKTNFederated Hermes MDT Market Neutral ETFMarket neutral−0.07+0.35%−30.6%+12.5 pts
FLSPFranklin Systematic Style Premia ETFMulti-strategy0.00+0.23%−20.0%+7.8 pts
FFUTFidelity Managed Futures ETFManaged futures+0.04+0.19%−17.0%+22.3 pts
QBERTrueShares Quarterly Bear Hedge ETFHedged equity−0.69+0.17%−15.2%−3.9 pts
LSEQHarbor Long-Short Equity ETFLong-short equity+0.09+0.13%−11.2%+19.9 pts
MRGRProShares Merger ETFEvent driven+0.04+0.12%−10.4%+3.8 pts
TAILCambria Tail Risk ETFHedged equity−0.67+0.09%−8.0%−18.9 pts
CAOSAlpha Architect Tail Risk ETFHedged equity−0.24+0.06%−5.1%−1.9 pts
FMFFirst Trust Managed Futures Strategy FundManaged futures+0.16+0.01%−0.9%+9.1 pts
MNANYLIM Merger Arbitrage ETFEvent driven+0.10−0.02%1.6%−1.1 pts
IMFInvesco Managed Futures Strategy ETFManaged futures+0.36−0.02%2.0%+17.4 pts
DBMFiMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETFManaged futures+0.27−0.05%4.1%+20.2 pts
LALTFirst Trust Multi-Strategy Alternative ETFMulti-strategy+0.35−0.07%6.0%+9.4 pts
ISMFiShares Managed Futures Active ETFManaged futures+0.48−0.14%12.1%+12.7 pts
CCORCore Alternative ETFHedged equity+0.04−0.16%14.4%−7.4 pts
ASMFVirtus AlphaSimplex Managed Futures ETFManaged futures+0.37−0.16%14.5%+13.2 pts
RSBAReturn Stacked Bonds & Merger Arbitrage ETFEvent driven+0.39−0.29%25.4%−7.5 pts
QALTSEI DBi Multi-Strategy Alternative ETFMulti-strategy+0.53−0.32%28.3%+6.5 pts
QBULTrueShares Quarterly Bull Hedge ETFHedged equity+0.87−0.37%32.3%−3.0 pts
FTLSFirst Trust Long/Short EquityLong-short equity+0.79−0.38%33.2%+8.9 pts
PHEQParametric Hedged Equity ETFHedged equity+0.94−0.38%33.8%+9.1 pts
WTMFWisdomTree Managed Futures Strategy FundManaged futures+0.68−0.41%36.0%+11.1 pts
AHLTAHL Trend ETFManaged futures+0.46−0.41%36.6%+24.0 pts
HDGProShares Hedge Replication ETFMulti-strategy+0.82−0.42%36.8%+4.5 pts
HOLAJPMorgan International Hedged Equity LaddereHedged equity+0.69−0.43%37.6%+6.5 pts
KSPYKraneShares Hedgeye Hedged Equity Index ETFHedged equity+0.89−0.45%39.5%+9.5 pts
RSBTReturn Stacked Bonds & Managed Futures ETFManaged futures+0.48−0.45%39.7%+9.2 pts
CLSEConvergence Long/Short Equity ETFLong-short equity+0.73−0.48%42.7%+30.9 pts
ORRMilitia Long/Short Equity ETFLong-short equity+0.48−0.51%45.4%+18.6 pts
HEQTSimplify Hedged Equity ETFHedged equity+0.94−0.52%46.3%+8.9 pts
QAINYLIM Hedge Multi-Strategy Tracker ETFMulti-strategy+0.87−0.53%46.5%+5.6 pts
HELOJPMorgan Hedged Equity Laddered Overlay ETFHedged equity+0.93−0.62%55.0%+4.6 pts
MFUTCambria Chesapeake Pure Trend ETFManaged futures+0.53−0.66%58.4%+24.1 pts
SHDGSoundwatch Hedged Equity ETFHedged equity+0.88−0.72%64.0%+3.8 pts
QISSimplify Multi-QIS Alternative ETFMulti-strategy+0.09−0.73%64.7%−43.2 pts
EHLSEven Herd Long Short ETFLong-short equity+0.51−0.79%69.9%+4.6 pts
HEGDSwan Hedged Equity US Large Cap ETFHedged equity+0.97−0.81%71.7%+5.8 pts
HEQQJPMorgan Nasdaq Hedged Equity Laddered OverlHedged equity+0.87−0.82%72.8%+6.2 pts
HOLDHarbor Alpha Layering ETFManaged futures+0.68−0.83%73.0%+8.4 pts
THEQT. Rowe Price Hedged Equity ETFHedged equity+0.99−0.86%75.8%+6.8 pts
FFLSThe Future Fund Long/Short ETFLong-short equity+0.71−0.86%76.3%−1.6 pts
XCLRGlobal X S&P 500 Collar 95-110 ETFHedged equity+0.95−0.89%78.9%+2.8 pts
ACIOAptus Collared Investment Opportunity ETFHedged equity+0.98−0.90%79.6%+6.3 pts
TFPNBlueprint Chesapeake Multi-Asset Trend ETFManaged futures+0.63−0.94%82.7%+16.8 pts
FHEQFidelity Hedged Equity ETFHedged equity+0.98−0.95%83.7%+8.3 pts
BTRNGlobal X Bitcoin Trend Strategy ETFManaged futures+0.29−0.97%85.3%−16.8 pts
ASGMVirtus AlphaSimplex Global Macro ETFGlobal macro+0.85−1.00%88.3%+24.4 pts
CBLSClough Hedged Equity ETFLong-short equity+0.57−1.09%96.0%+10.0 pts
XTRGlobal X S&P 500 Tail Risk ETFHedged equity+0.99−1.09%96.0%+9.5 pts
QCLRGlobal X NASDAQ 100 Collar 95-110 ETFHedged equity+0.86−1.13%99.5%−2.3 pts
CSMProShares Large Cap Core PlusLong-short equity+0.98−1.13%99.7%+12.6 pts
PRAEPlanRock Equity Plus Alternatives ETFManaged futures+0.82−1.15%101.9%+13.8 pts
RSSTReturn Stacked U.S. Stocks & Managed FuturesManaged futures+0.85−1.42%125.1%+31.6 pts
QTRGlobal X NASDAQ 100 Tail Risk ETFHedged equity+0.92−1.62%143.1%+14.4 pts
Method

ETFIQ calculations from Tiingo end-of-day closes for each fund, for SPY and for BIL, over 52 weekly returns ending on one date. Correlation and beta are computed on those weeks. Down-week capture is a fund’s average return in the weeks SPY fell as a share of SPY’s, on the unrounded averages. Against T-bills is the fund’s total return minus BIL’s over the same weeks. Strategies are read from each fund’s own prospectus. Thinly quoted funds are left out. Medians across funds. Rebuilt every trading night.

Data file: alternatives.json. ETFIQ is an independent publisher and makes no recommendations. Standards →

Cite this page

ETFIQ Research, What alternatives ETFs did when stocks fell, data as of Oct 6, 2026. https://etfiq.com/research/2026-10-07/alternatives-down-weeks

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