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Prices to Nov 3, 2026 · paper tracking starts Nov 4, 2026.

Strategy Lab · Balanced & income

60/40 with rebalancing bands

Share
ETFIQ baseline
Balanced & incomeRisk onHypotheticalNext rebalance On drift
Put to the committee
IQ

At the Nov 3, 2026 close 60/40 with rebalancing bands is risk on and holds SPY 61%, AGG 39%. Hypothetical back-test since 2010: +9.5% a year against AOR’s +7.6%, deepest fall −21.2%.

IQ · Nov 3, 2026
Scorecard window, Jan 15, 2010 to Nov 3, 2026
Paper recordNot startedStarts Nov 4, 2026
Back-test, a year+9.5%vs AOR +7.6%
Max drawdown−21.2%vs AOR −22.2%
Sharpe0.80vs AOR 0.62
Turnover4%a year
Funds2held now

Growth of $10,000

Jan 2010 to Nov 3, 2026 · after costs
Nov 3, 2026Back-testStrategy$46,633+366.3%AOR$34,456+244.6%
StrategyAORBack-testPaper record

Drawdown

Fall from the last high
Strategy worst −21.2%AOR worst −22.2%

Rolling 12-month return

+8.2%+8.2%

Rolling 12-month Sharpe

0.840.82

Holdings now

Nov 3, 2026 close
SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust61.5%AGGiShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF38.5%

Signals

Hold 60% US stocks and 40% bonds. Trade back only when a holding drifts 5 points from its target.
2 in · 0 out
Nearest to flipping
FundTargetRankDistance to flipState
SPY60%fixed targetIn
AGG40%fixed targetIn
FundTargetRankDistance to flipState
SPY60%fixed targetIn
AGG40%fixed targetIn
Each bar shows how far a fund is from flipping. Nov 3, 2026 close.

Trade blotter

DateActionFundPriceWeightReasonRecord
InSPYat close60.0%Rule added it. Next close, after costs.Back-test
InAGGat close40.0%Rule added it. Next close, after costs.Back-test
No paper trades yet: the first night is Nov 4, 2026. Back-test changes below, after costs.

Monthly returns

% · Last 12 months, the latest to Nov 3
Dec
2025		Jan
2026		Feb
2026		Mar
2026		Apr
2026		May
2026		Jun
2026		Jul
2026		Aug
2026		Sep
2026		Oct
2026		Nov
2026
−0.11.00.0−3.86.73.3−0.5−0.51.8−1.20.3−0.1
JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYearAOR
2026*1.00.0−3.86.73.3−0.5−0.51.8−1.20.3−0.16.86.5
20251.90.1−3.4−0.33.53.71.31.72.71.70.3−0.113.715.7
20240.92.72.4−3.53.82.51.72.01.8−1.54.1−2.115.511.4
20235.0−2.63.31.2−0.23.72.0−1.2−3.9−1.97.34.217.515.8
2022−4.1−2.31.4−6.80.4−5.46.3−3.6−7.14.04.8−3.7−15.9−15.7
2021−0.91.22.53.50.51.71.91.8−3.34.3−0.42.816.411.2
20200.8−4.1−7.58.33.21.44.23.9−2.3−1.77.02.315.311.2
20195.32.01.92.5−3.44.81.0−0.11.01.52.31.722.219.8
20183.1−2.7−1.50.01.80.42.32.20.2−4.41.3−4.0−1.6−6.3
20171.22.70.11.01.10.41.40.51.01.51.80.914.515.8
2016−2.60.34.40.31.01.02.40.00.0−1.41.31.48.36.7
2015−1.03.0−0.80.50.6−1.71.7−3.9−1.25.10.1−1.11.0−1.9
2014−1.73.00.50.71.91.3−0.92.8−1.11.82.0−0.110.57.6
20133.01.02.51.50.6−1.43.3−2.22.43.21.81.518.416.5
20123.12.61.8−0.1−3.42.51.31.51.7−1.20.50.511.110.4
20111.42.3−0.12.4−0.3−1.2−0.6−2.8−3.86.4−0.41.24.11.1
2010−3.01.93.61.3−4.4−2.34.2−2.15.12.3−0.33.710.09.4

Scorecard

vs AOR · back-test Jan 15, 2010 to Nov 3, 2026 · after costs

+9.5% a year vs AOR +7.6%.Max drawdown −21.2% vs −22.2%.
Return
MeasureStrategyAOREdge
Total return+365%+244%Strategy
Annualised+9.5%+7.6%Strategy
Risk
MeasureStrategyAOREdge
Volatility10.1%10.1%Tie
Max drawdown−21.2%−22.2%Strategy (slight)
Upside capture99.7%100.0%Tie
Downside capture93.7%100.0%Strategy (slight)
Beta0.971.00Lower
Risk-adjusted
MeasureStrategyAOREdge
Sharpe ratio0.800.62Strategy
Sortino ratio1.170.89Strategy
Calmar ratio0.450.34Strategy
Alpha, a year+2.0%n/aSignificant
Costs and taxes
MeasureStrategyAOREdge
Turnover, a year4%n/a
Cost drag, a year0.00%n/a
Tax drag estimaten/an/a

Ratios use the 13-week Treasury bill rate, 1.5% a year, from the Treasury’s daily rates. Tax is not measured. Method

The Skeptic's take

0 daysof paper record. The rest is a back-test.
t = 3.26Alpha of +2.0% a year is significant, on back-test data.
4%turnover a year. Costs take 0.0 points.
MethodSource, rules, funds and limitsOpen ↓
SourceETFIQ baseline (2026). The 60/40 mix with a 5-point rebalancing band. ETFIQ. ↗
VersionRules v1 · sha ba68a516 · data to Nov 3, 2026How we test strategies
Exact rules
  1. Hold 60% US stocks and 40% bonds. Trade back only when a holding drifts 5 points from its target.
  2. A band breach is seen at the close and traded at the next close, one day later than the back-test, which trades at the breach close.
  3. The universe is 2 funds; the benchmark is iShares Core 60/40 Balanced Allocation ETF (AOR).
  4. It trades when a weight drifts 5.0 points from its target.
What we cannot measure
  • Taxes.
Fund list · 2 funds
SPYAGG
Cite this pageCitation, APA and Markdown

ETFIQ Strategy Lab, 60/40 with rebalancing bands, data as of Nov 3, 2026. https://etfiq.com/models/strategies/sixty-forty/

Computed by ETFIQ from Tiingo daily prices. Data sourced by Tiingo.

Open dataFree to use with attribution
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