Which came closer to its stated multiple, TBT or TMF?

Over the window to Sep 30, 2026, TBT finished 4.2 points from what its multiple implies and TMF finished 0.3 points from its own, so TMF came closer. Neither figure predicts the next window: it depends on how much the underlying moves about.

Are TBT and TMF levered on the same thing?

Yes. Both are levered on 20-year Treasuries, TBT at -2 times and TMF at +3 times the daily move.

Which one decays faster, TBT or TMF?

Decay follows how much the underlying moves about. Over this window TBT’s moved at 10% annualized and TMF’s at 10%, so TBT has the rougher ride and, at the same multiple, loses more to compounding.

Can I hold TBT or TMF for a year?

Both reset every day, so the multiple in the name applies to a single day and the daily results compound. Over a year the total is not the multiple times the year’s move, and in a market that falls and comes back it is reliably less. ETFIQ makes no recommendation either way.

Which is cheaper, TBT or TMF?

TBT charges 0.93% a year and TMF charges 0.90%, so TMF is cheaper. Fees come from each fund's prospectus.

Share on X Download as PDF Open live

TBT vs TMF: which held to its multiple?

Over three months against its own daily promise, TBT finished 2.7 points over and TMF 1.8 points short. ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury and Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF.

+20.8%

TBT returned, 3 months

−25.3%

TMF returned, 3 months

+4.2 pts

TBT from its stated multiple

−0.3 pts

TMF from its stated multiple

TBT · 3 months to Sep 30, 20264.2 pts ahead of its stated multiple

TBT returned +20.8% while −2 times TLT's move would have been +16.7%

TMF · 3 months to Sep 30, 2026On its stated multiple

TMF returned −25.3% while 3 times TLT's move would have been −25.0%

ETFIQ Decay Resistance Score · TBT scores higherDid it keep up with its own daily multiple, compounded day by day?

TBT among the 125 inverse ETFs over three months

TBT 78

0.4, the lowest in this set99.6, the highest

TMF among the 470 leveraged ETFs, long, over three months

TMF 77.2

0.1, the lowest in this set99.9, the highest

A percentile among the 125 inverse ETFs over three months. TMF is a percentile among the 470 leveraged ETFs, long, over three months, a different set, so the two marks are not on one scale. It is a position in a set, not a rating, and neither end of it is a recommendation. All leveraged ETFs ranked by it → How it is computed →

Performance, window by window

	Total return		Multiple would give		Difference
Window	TBT	TMF	TBT	TMF	TBT	TMF
1 month	+12.0%	−16.0%	+10.8%	−16.1%	+1.3 pts	+0.1 pts
3 months	+20.8%	−25.3%	+16.7%	−25.0%	+4.2 pts	−0.3 pts
6 months	+22.3%	−27.0%	+16.2%	−24.3%	+6.2 pts	−2.7 pts
1 year	+29.1%	−33.5%	+17.9%	−26.9%	+11.1 pts	−6.6 pts
3 years	+21.8%	−40.6%	+0.9%	−1.3%	+20.9 pts	−39.3 pts
Since launch TBT Jan 2010 · TMF Jan 2010	−74.5%	−57.5%	−83.1%	+124.7%	+8.6 pts	−182.1 pts

TBT and TMF over each window. Every figure is an ETFIQ calculation with distributions reinvested. Source: ETFIQ. Open the live comparison on ETFIQ →

On the same fields

TBT

ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury · Aims to return twice the opposite of the daily move of 20-year Treasuries (TLT)

TMF

Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF · Aims to return three times the daily move of 20-year Treasuries (TLT)

Issuer ProShares Direxion

Sets out to return -2x +3x

Underlying asset TLT TLT

Segment bond bond

Fund returned, 3 months or since launch +20.8% −25.3%

Underlying returned, over that window −8.3% −8.3%

What the stated multiple implies, over that window +16.7% −25.0%

Difference from stated, over that window +4.2 pts −0.3 pts

Fund returned, 1 year or since launch +29.1% −33.5%

Difference from stated, over that window +11.1 pts −6.6 pts

Underlying volatility 10% 10%

Expense ratio 0.93% 0.90%

Launched Jan 4, 2010 Jan 4, 2010

Net assets $359m $2.0bn

TBT and TMF on the same fields, as of Sep 30, 2026. Source: ETFIQ.

TBT in plain words

Three months to Sep 30, 2026: TBT returned +20.8% where its own daily promise gave +18.1%, 2.7 points over. Read the multiple against the whole window instead and −2 times TLT's −8.3% implies +16.7%, which makes TBT look 4.2 points over. 1.5 of that is daily compounding, which happens to any −2 times fund over the same path, and the rest is the fund. TBT aims to return -2 times TLT's move each day, then resets. Over one day it does that. Over longer, the daily results compound, so the total is not -2 times the period's move: in a market that falls and comes back it is reliably less, and in a steady run it can be more. TLT moved at 10% annualized over that window. That is what decides how far the two figures separate: the same fund on a calm underlying and a violent one is a different product.

TMF in plain words

Three months to Sep 30, 2026: TMF returned −25.3% where its own daily promise gave −23.6%, 1.8 points short. Read the multiple against the whole window instead and 3 times TLT's −8.3% implies −25.0%, which makes TMF look 0.3 points short. 1.4 of that is daily compounding, which happens to any 3 times fund over the same path, and the rest is the fund. TMF aims to return +3 times TLT's move each day, then resets. Over longer, the daily results compound, so the total is not +3 times the period's move: in a market that falls and comes back it is reliably less, and in a steady run it can be more.

Questions people ask

Which came closer to its stated multiple, TBT or TMF?: Over the window to Sep 30, 2026, TBT finished 4.2 points from what its multiple implies and TMF finished 0.3 points from its own, so TMF came closer. Neither figure predicts the next window: it depends on how much the underlying moves about.
Are TBT and TMF levered on the same thing?: Yes. Both are levered on 20-year Treasuries, TBT at -2 times and TMF at +3 times the daily move.
Which one decays faster, TBT or TMF?: Decay follows how much the underlying moves about. Over this window TBT’s moved at 10% annualized and TMF’s at 10%, so TBT has the rougher ride and, at the same multiple, loses more to compounding.
Can I hold TBT or TMF for a year?: Both reset every day, so the multiple in the name applies to a single day and the daily results compound. Over a year the total is not the multiple times the year’s move, and in a market that falls and comes back it is reliably less. ETFIQ makes no recommendation either way.
Which is cheaper, TBT or TMF?: TBT charges 0.93% a year and TMF charges 0.90%, so TMF is cheaper. Fees come from each fund's prospectus.

Other comparisons

TBT vs TMV TBT vs TTT TBT vs UBT TBT vs TBF TMF vs TMV TMF vs TTT TMF vs UBT TMF vs TBF

TLT →TBT on its own →TMF on its own →How every figure is computed →Standards and sources →

Where these figures came from

TBT filings on SEC EDGAR ↗TBT prospectus with the expense ratio (SEC) ↗ProShares page for TBT ↗TMF filings on SEC EDGAR ↗TMF prospectus with the expense ratio (SEC) ↗Direxion website ↗

ETFIQ links to the documents behind every figure. It is not affiliated with any issuer, and a link is not an endorsement. A comparison is not a recommendation.

Cite this page

ETFIQ, TBT against TMF, data as of Sep 30, 2026. https://etfiq.com/compare/leverage/tbt-vs-tmf

Open data

Free to use with attribution. Every figure is calculated from a named public source; the method is at etfiq.com/methodology.