TMF vs UBT: which held to its multiple?
Over three months against its own daily promise, TMF finished 1.8 points short and UBT 0.4 points short. Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF and ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury.
TMF returned −25.3% while 3 times TLT's move would have been −25.0%
UBT returned −16.6% while 2 times TLT's move would have been −16.7%
A percentile among the 470 leveraged ETFs, long, over three months. It is a position in a set, not a rating, and neither end of it is a recommendation. All leveraged ETFs ranked by it → How it is computed →
Performance, window by window
| Total return | Multiple would give | Difference | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Window | TMF | UBT | TMF | UBT | TMF | UBT |
| 1 month | −16.0% | −10.3% | −16.1% | −10.8% | +0.1 pts | +0.4 pts |
| 3 months | −25.3% | −16.6% | −25.0% | −16.7% | −0.3 pts | +0.1 pts |
| 6 months | −27.0% | −17.5% | −24.3% | −16.2% | −2.7 pts | −1.3 pts |
| 1 year | −33.5% | −20.8% | −26.9% | −17.9% | −6.6 pts | −2.9 pts |
| 3 years | −40.6% | −18.9% | −1.3% | −0.9% | −39.3 pts | −18.1 pts |
| Since launch TMF Jan 2010 · UBT Jan 2010 | −57.5% | −7.3% | +124.7% | +75.9% | −182.1 pts | −83.2 pts |
TMF and UBT over each window. Every figure is an ETFIQ calculation with distributions reinvested. Source: ETFIQ. Open the live comparison on ETFIQ →
On the same fields
TMF and UBT on the same fields, as of Sep 30, 2026. Source: ETFIQ.
TMF in plain words
Three months to Sep 30, 2026: TMF returned −25.3% where its own daily promise gave −23.6%, 1.8 points short. Read the multiple against the whole window instead and 3 times TLT's −8.3% implies −25.0%, which makes TMF look 0.3 points short. 1.4 of that is daily compounding, which happens to any 3 times fund over the same path, and the rest is the fund. TMF aims to return +3 times TLT's move each day, then resets. Over one day it does that. Over longer, the daily results compound, so the total is not +3 times the period's move: in a market that falls and comes back it is reliably less, and in a steady run it can be more. TLT moved at 10% annualized over that window. That is what decides how far the two figures separate: the same fund on a calm underlying and a violent one is a different product.
UBT in plain words
Three months to Sep 30, 2026: UBT returned −16.6% where its own daily promise gave −16.2%, 0.4 points short. Read the multiple against the whole window instead and 2 times TLT's −8.3% implies −16.7%, which makes UBT look 0.1 points over. 0.5 of that is daily compounding, which happens to any 2 times fund over the same path, and the rest is the fund. UBT aims to return +2 times TLT's move each day, then resets. Over longer, the daily results compound, so the total is not +2 times the period's move: in a market that falls and comes back it is reliably less, and in a steady run it can be more.
Questions people ask
- Which came closer to its stated multiple, TMF or UBT?
- Over the window to Sep 30, 2026, TMF finished 0.3 points from what its multiple implies and UBT finished 0.1 points from its own, so UBT came closer. Neither figure predicts the next window: it depends on how much the underlying moves about.
- Are TMF and UBT levered on the same thing?
- Yes. Both are levered on 20-year Treasuries, TMF at +3 times and UBT at +2 times the daily move.
- Which one decays faster, TMF or UBT?
- Decay follows how much the underlying moves about. Over this window TMF’s moved at 10% annualized and UBT’s at 10%, so TMF has the rougher ride and, at the same multiple, loses more to compounding.
- Can I hold TMF or UBT for a year?
- Both reset every day, so the multiple in the name applies to a single day and the daily results compound. Over a year the total is not the multiple times the year’s move, and in a market that falls and comes back it is reliably less. ETFIQ makes no recommendation either way.
ETFIQ links to the documents behind every figure. It is not affiliated with any issuer, and a link is not an endorsement. A comparison is not a recommendation.
ETFIQ, TMF against UBT, data as of Sep 30, 2026. https://etfiq.com/compare/leverage/tmf-vs-ubt
Free to use with attribution. Every figure is calculated from a named public source; the method is at etfiq.com/methodology.
Cite this page. ETFIQ, TMF against UBT, data as of Sep 30, 2026. https://etfiq.com/compare/leverage/tmf-vs-ubt Free to use with attribution; the underlying files are at Open data.
Other forms
- Plain
- ETFIQ, TMF against UBT, data as of Sep 30, 2026. https://etfiq.com/compare/leverage/tmf-vs-ubt
- APA
- ETFIQ. (Sep 30, 2026). TMF against UBT. Retrieved from https://etfiq.com/compare/leverage/tmf-vs-ubt
- Markdown
- [TMF against UBT (ETFIQ, Sep 30, 2026)](https://etfiq.com/compare/leverage/tmf-vs-ubt)