Data as of Nov 4, 2026.
HOLD vs TFPN: Correlation to the S&P 500
Over the year to Nov 4, 2026, HOLD moved less with the S&P 500 than TFPN: correlation +0.66 against +0.75.
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Net assets: $3.9m on Nov 4, 2026 for Harbor Alpha Layering ETF, and $170m on Jun 30, 2026 for Blueprint Chesapeake Multi-Asset Trend ETF.
HOLD in the 26 weeks SPY fell, year to Nov 4, 2026: SPY averaged −1.07%, HOLD −1.29%.
TFPN in the 26 weeks SPY fell, year to Nov 4, 2026: SPY averaged −1.07%, TFPN −1.32%.
Pair scorecard
HOLD costs 0.43 points a year less; their one-year returns differ by 13.4 points.
| Measure | HOLD | TFPN |
|---|---|---|
| Return | ||
| Total return, 1 year | +0.8% | +14.2% |
| Against its benchmark | ||
| Treasury bills, 52 weeks | +3.7% | |
| Cost and size | ||
| Expense ratio | 0.70% | 1.13% |
| Net assets, HOLD as of Nov 4, 2026 and TFPN as of Jun 30, 2026 | $3.9m | $170m |
| Holdings | ||
| Holdings in common | not published | |
| Risk | ||
| Beta to the S&P 500 | +0.81: about 0.81% for each 1% | +1.00: about 1.00% for each 1% |
| Its average week when the S&P 500 fell | fell 1.29% | fell 1.32% |
How much it diversifies a stock portfolio, ranked against 17 systematic trend alternatives ETFs with a full year. 100 is best. How it is computed
One year of weekly moves against the S&P 500, within one strategy; it ignores what the fund returned. All alternatives ETFs ranked by it →
Risk and return
Aug 22, 2025 to Oct 30, 2026 · 62 weekly returns · each against VOOFrom Aug 2025 to Oct 2026, TFPN returned more: +25.2% to +11.8%. TFPN swung slightly less: 12.6% to 13.1%. HOLD fell slightly less at its worst: −8.6% to −8.9%.
Full scorecard
19 measures, with how each is measured Open ↓
| Measure | HOLD | TFPN | VOO | Edge | How it is measured |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Return | |||||
| Total return | +11.8% | +25.2% | TFPN | Price change plus distributions, reinvested. | |
| Annualized | +9.8% | +20.7% | TFPN | Total return as a yearly rate. | |
| Price return | +4.2% | +25.2% | TFPN | Price change alone, distributions left out. | |
| Risk | |||||
| Volatility | 13.1% | 12.6% | TFPN (slight) | Spread of weekly returns, annualized. Lower is steadier. | |
| Downside deviation | 9.3% | 8.6% | TFPN (slight) | Like volatility, counting only weeks below the Treasury bill rate. | |
| Max drawdown | −8.6% | −8.9% | HOLD (slight) | Deepest fall from a high to the low after it. | |
| Upside capture | 51.1% | 60.5% | 100.0% | TFPN | Share of its benchmark's rise caught in the weeks it rose. |
| Downside capture | 64.1% | 40.3% | 100.0% | TFPN | Share of its benchmark's fall taken in the weeks it fell. Lower is better. |
| Beta | 0.65 | 0.52 | 1.00 | TFPN lower | How far it moves for each 1% its benchmark moves. |
| R squared | 0.33 | 0.23 | 1.00 | Not an edge | Share of its weekly moves its benchmark explains. |
| Risk-adjusted | |||||
| Sharpe | 0.49 | 1.26 | TFPN | Return above Treasury bills per unit of volatility. | |
| Sortino | 0.68 | 1.84 | TFPN | Return above Treasury bills per unit of downside deviation. | |
| Treynor | 0.097 | 0.307 | 0.113 | TFPN | Return above Treasury bills per unit of beta. |
| Calmar | 1.13 | 2.32 | TFPN | Annualized return divided by the max drawdown. | |
| Against the benchmark | |||||
| Benchmark | VOO | VOO | VOO | The ETF each fund is measured against. | |
| Alpha | −1.0% a year | +10.0% a year | 0.0% | Not significant | Yearly return beyond what its beta to the benchmark predicts. |
| Alpha t-stat | −0.10 | 0.97 | Not an edge | How sure the alpha is. Below 2, it could be chance. | |
| Alpha range | −21.0% to +18.9% | −10.6% to +30.6% | Both include zero | The 95% range for the yearly alpha. | |
| Information ratio | −0.43 | 0.36 | TFPN | Return against its benchmark per unit of tracking error. | |
| Tracking error | 11.4% | 12.4% | 0.0% | Not an edge | How far weekly returns stray from the benchmark, annualized. |
Computed by ETFIQ from Tiingo daily prices and ETFIQ's distribution records, 62 weekly returns. Cash rate: the 13-week Treasury bill.
Window by window
| Total return | vs its benchmark | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Window | HOLD | TFPN | HOLD | TFPN |
| 3 months | −3.1% | −3.4% | −3.0 pts vs VOO | −3.3 pts vs VOO |
| 6 months | −7.5% | −8.5% | −12.5 pts vs VOO | −13.5 pts vs VOO |
| 1 year | +0.8% | +14.2% | −14.0 pts vs VOO | −0.6 pts vs VOO |
| 3 years | – | +18.6% | – | −64.7 pts vs VOO |
| Since launchNot the same days: HOLD Aug 2025 · TFPN Jul 2023 | +10.3% | +17.8% | −10.3 pts vs VOO | −61.6 pts vs VOO |
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Side by side
As of Nov 4, 2026. Source: ETFIQ.
One strategy, two funds
HOLD and TFPN both run a managed futures strategy. Over the same 52 weeks to Nov 4, 2026, HOLD’s weekly returns had a correlation of +0.66 with the S&P 500 and TFPN’s +0.75. In the 26 weeks the index fell, by 1.07% a week on average, HOLD averaged −1.29% and TFPN −1.32%. Over the same weeks, HOLD finished 3.3 percentage points behind cash and TFPN finished 10.8 points ahead of cash.
Client brief:
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HOLD
HOLD is a managed futures fund. ETFIQ measures what every alternatives fund is sold on: whether it moves differently from the stock market. Over the year to Nov 4, 2026, its weekly returns had a correlation of +0.66 with the S&P 500’s and a beta of +0.81, so for each 1% the index moved it moved about 0.81% the same way. The S&P 500 fell in 26 of those 52 weeks, by 1.07% on average. In the same weeks HOLD fell 1.29% on average, a down-week capture of 120.5%. Over the same 52 weeks HOLD returned +0.3% and a Treasury bill fund +3.7%, so it finished 3.3 percentage points behind cash.
TFPN
TFPN is a managed futures fund. Over the year to Nov 4, 2026, its weekly returns had a correlation of +0.75 with the S&P 500’s and a beta of +1.00, so for each 1% the index moved it moved about 1.00% the same way. In the same weeks TFPN fell 1.32% on average, a down-week capture of 123.6%. Over the same 52 weeks TFPN returned +14.4% and a Treasury bill fund +3.7%, so it finished 10.8 percentage points ahead of cash.
Questions people ask
- Which moved less with the S&P 500, HOLD or TFPN?
- Over the 52 weeks to Nov 4, 2026, HOLD’s weekly returns had a correlation of +0.66 with the S&P 500 and TFPN’s +0.75, so HOLD moved less with the index.
- Which did better when the S&P 500 fell, HOLD or TFPN?
- In the 26 weeks the S&P 500 fell, by 1.07% a week on average, HOLD averaged −1.29% and TFPN −1.32%, so HOLD returned more in those weeks.
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How this is computed
It is a place in a set, not a rating or a recommendation.
Every number is an ETFIQ calculation with distributions reinvested.
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ETFIQ, HOLD against TFPN, data as of Nov 4, 2026. https://etfiq.com/compare/alternatives/hold-vs-tfpn
ETFIQ. (Nov 4, 2026). HOLD against TFPN. Retrieved from https://etfiq.com/compare/alternatives/hold-vs-tfpn
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