2026 outlook: Economic upside, stock market downside
Vanguard's December 2025 outlook expects muted US stock returns over five to 10 years and sets its VEMO portfolio at 60% bonds and 40% stocks.
What it says
Figures as stated by Vanguard, Dec 10, 2025- Vanguard's projections over a five to 10 year horizon put high-quality US bonds first on risk and return, followed by US value stocks and non-US developed market stocks.Vanguard
- Vanguard expects returns on US stocks, growth stocks in particular, to be muted, while it sees bonds as attractive.Vanguard
- Vanguard says AI adoption is speeding up and could lift productivity broadly, but sees more opportunity outside the hyperscalers behind massive AI investment, despite their strong earnings outlook.Vanguard
- Vanguard says its positioning is meant to hold up whether AI transforms the economy or disappoints while government deficits come to dominate markets.Vanguard
The ETFIQ take
ETFIQ data to Oct 20, 2026 · the 713 of 4,807 ETFs ETFIQ covers with a daily figure, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026Vanguard reports an outlook portfolio of 60% bonds and 40% stocks, based on five to 10 year projections. From Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, the ETFs ETFIQ can count had a net flow of +$461.8bn, with +$239.1bn for stock ETFs and +$177.3bn for bond ETFs.
+$461.8bnnet flow, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, summed over the 713 of 4,807 ETFs ETFIQ covers with a daily figureOct 20, 2026 · ETFIQ →+$127.9bnnet flow, Sep 21, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, summed over the 746 of 4,807 ETFs ETFIQ covers with a daily figureOct 20, 2026 · ETFIQ →+$239.1bnnet flow into stock ETFs, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, over the 319 of 1,739 with a daily figureOct 20, 2026 · ETFIQ →+$177.3bnnet flow into bond ETFs, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, over the 184 of 833 with a daily figureOct 20, 2026 · ETFIQ →
Paper: US and global asset classes, five to 10 year horizon. ETFIQ: the 713 of 4,807 ETFs ETFIQ covers with a daily figure, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026. Net flow is the change in shares outstanding times the day’s NAV, summed over the days in the window, for the funds with a daily figure. The two sets and windows differ; the figures are stated, not reconciled.MethodData
Related ETFs
The largest ETFs ETFIQ covers, by net assetsVOOVanguard S&P 500 ETF+16.5%IVViShares Core S&P 500 ETF+16.5%SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust+16.4%VTIVanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF+15.9%QQQInvesco QQQ Trust, Series 1+19.2%VUGVanguard Morningstar Growth ETF+11.2%
Figure: total return, 1 year, to Oct 21, 2026, from each fund’s page. All 4,807 ETFs in the screener →
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What does the Vanguard paper conclude?
Vanguard's December 2025 outlook expects muted US stock returns over five to 10 years and sets its VEMO portfolio at 60% bonds and 40% stocks. The paper’s own words are at the link above.
What does ETFIQ’s data show on the same question?
From Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, the ETFs ETFIQ can count had a net flow of +$461.8bn, with +$239.1bn for stock ETFs and +$177.3bn for bond ETFs. ETFIQ states both figures and does not reconcile them.
What do ETF flows show about an outlook?
Where investors actually moved money over the same months: the net flow into stock and bond ETFs, dated, beside the paper’s forecast. More on this →
Where can I read “2026 outlook: Economic upside, stock market downside”?
On Vanguard’s own site. ETFIQ summarizes the paper and does not host it. Vanguard’s page ↗
Cite this pageCitation, APA and Markdown
ETFIQ, 2026 outlook: Economic upside, stock market downside (Vanguard), summary and ETFIQ take, as of Oct 21, 2026. https://etfiq.com/research/library/vanguard-2026-outlook-economic-upside-stock-market-downside/
Summary by ETFIQ. ETFIQ is not affiliated with Vanguard; logos identify the source.