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Global Market Outlook 2026: Forward with focus

State Street Investment Management's December 2025 outlook cites consensus estimates that Magnificent 7 capital spending will reach about $520 billion in 2026, over 30% higher.

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OutlooksThemes· 21 pages · PDF

What it says

Figures as stated by State Street Investment Management, Dec 3, 2025
  • State Street Investment Management says the Fed has room for up to three rate cuts in 2026, while the ECB likely pauses and the Bank of Japan keeps hiking.State Street, p. 1
  • State Street Investment Management notes the S&P 500 trades at 23.1x expected earnings for the next twelve months, a level it describes as rich.State Street, p. 10
  • State Street Investment Management cites consensus expectations of 18% Industrials earnings growth in 2026, third among sectors, helped by defense and power spending.State Street, p. 10
  • State Street Investment Management expects Germany's €500 billion fiscal package to start lifting European economic data in early 2026.State Street, p. 5
  • State Street Investment Management, citing the Bank for International Settlements, puts private credit at $2.8 trillion, filling a gap left by banks.State Street, p. 17

The ETFIQ take

ETFIQ data to Oct 20, 2026 · the 713 of 4,807 ETFs ETFIQ covers with a daily figure, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026

State Street Investment Management reports consensus estimates of about $520 billion of Magnificent 7 capital spending in 2026, over 30% higher year on year. From Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, the ETFs ETFIQ can count had a net flow of +$461.8bn, with +$239.1bn for stock ETFs and +$177.3bn for bond ETFs.

+$461.8bnnet flow, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, summed over the 713 of 4,807 ETFs ETFIQ covers with a daily figureOct 20, 2026 · ETFIQ →+$127.9bnnet flow, Sep 21, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, summed over the 746 of 4,807 ETFs ETFIQ covers with a daily figureOct 20, 2026 · ETFIQ →+$239.1bnnet flow into stock ETFs, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, over the 319 of 1,739 with a daily figureOct 20, 2026 · ETFIQ →+$177.3bnnet flow into bond ETFs, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, over the 184 of 833 with a daily figureOct 20, 2026 · ETFIQ →
Paper: Global economy and markets, outlook for 2026. ETFIQ: the 713 of 4,807 ETFs ETFIQ covers with a daily figure, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026. Net flow is the change in shares outstanding times the day’s NAV, summed over the days in the window, for the funds with a daily figure. The two sets and windows differ; the figures are stated, not reconciled.MethodData

Related ETFs

The largest ETFs ETFIQ covers, by net assets
VOOVanguard S&P 500 ETF+16.5%IVViShares Core S&P 500 ETF+16.5%SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust+16.4%VTIVanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF+15.9%QQQInvesco QQQ Trust, Series 1+19.2%VUGVanguard Morningstar Growth ETF+11.2%

Figure: total return, 1 year, to Oct 21, 2026, from each fund’s page. All 4,807 ETFs in the screener →

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Questions people ask

What does the State Street Investment Management paper conclude?

State Street Investment Management's December 2025 outlook cites consensus estimates that Magnificent 7 capital spending will reach about $520 billion in 2026, over 30% higher. The paper’s own words are at the link above.

What does ETFIQ’s data show on the same question?

From Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, the ETFs ETFIQ can count had a net flow of +$461.8bn, with +$239.1bn for stock ETFs and +$177.3bn for bond ETFs. ETFIQ states both figures and does not reconcile them.

What do ETF flows show about an outlook?

Where investors actually moved money over the same months: the net flow into stock and bond ETFs, dated, beside the paper’s forecast. More on this →

Where can I read “Global Market Outlook 2026: Forward with focus”?

On State Street Investment Management’s own site. ETFIQ summarizes the paper and does not host it. State Street Investment Management’s page ↗
Cite this pageCitation, APA and Markdown

ETFIQ, Global Market Outlook 2026: Forward with focus (State Street Investment Management), summary and ETFIQ take, as of Oct 21, 2026. https://etfiq.com/research/library/state-street-global-market-outlook-2026-forward-with-focus/

Open data →

Summary by ETFIQ. ETFIQ is not affiliated with State Street Investment Management; logos identify the source.