Outlook 2026: Promise and Pressure
J.P. Morgan's November 2025 outlook says large US tech companies may spend over $500 billion on capex in 2026, versus $150 billion in 2023.
What it says
Figures as stated by J.P. Morgan, Nov 17, 2025- J.P. Morgan puts AI investment at around 1% of GDP and says past technology build-outs suggest it could still double.J.P. Morgan, p. 4
- J.P. Morgan says the Bloomberg US Aggregate Index now yields about 4.3%, versus roughly 1% in 2020, and expects mid-single-digit returns for most bond types.J.P. Morgan, p. 49
- J.P. Morgan, citing PitchBook, says the 10 largest private AI companies are worth about $1.5 trillion together, versus $3 trillion for all US listed small caps.J.P. Morgan, p. 21
- J.P. Morgan says gold rose over 50% in 2025 so far, and crypto's market value passed $4 trillion, versus $2 trillion as 2024 began.J.P. Morgan, p. 11
- J.P. Morgan cites a National Municipal Bond Index yield near 3.6% against 10-year inflation expectations of 2.3%.J.P. Morgan, p. 49
The ETFIQ take
ETFIQ data to Oct 20, 2026 · the 713 of 4,807 ETFs ETFIQ covers with a daily figure, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026J.P. Morgan reports large US tech firms' annual capex could exceed $500 billion in 2026, versus $150 billion in 2023. From Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, the ETFs ETFIQ can count had a net flow of +$461.8bn, with +$239.1bn for stock ETFs and +$177.3bn for bond ETFs.
+$461.8bnnet flow, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, summed over the 713 of 4,807 ETFs ETFIQ covers with a daily figureOct 20, 2026 · ETFIQ →+$127.9bnnet flow, Sep 21, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, summed over the 746 of 4,807 ETFs ETFIQ covers with a daily figureOct 20, 2026 · ETFIQ →+$239.1bnnet flow into stock ETFs, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, over the 319 of 1,739 with a daily figureOct 20, 2026 · ETFIQ →+$177.3bnnet flow into bond ETFs, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, over the 184 of 833 with a daily figureOct 20, 2026 · ETFIQ →
Paper: Global economy and markets, outlook for 2026. ETFIQ: the 713 of 4,807 ETFs ETFIQ covers with a daily figure, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026. Net flow is the change in shares outstanding times the day’s NAV, summed over the days in the window, for the funds with a daily figure. The two sets and windows differ; the figures are stated, not reconciled.MethodData
Related ETFs
The largest ETFs ETFIQ covers, by net assetsVOOVanguard S&P 500 ETF+16.5%IVViShares Core S&P 500 ETF+16.5%SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust+16.4%VTIVanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF+15.9%QQQInvesco QQQ Trust, Series 1+19.2%VUGVanguard Morningstar Growth ETF+11.2%
Figure: total return, 1 year, to Oct 21, 2026, from each fund’s page. All 4,807 ETFs in the screener →
Related papers
Same topic, other sources
State Street Investment ManagementIssuerftFirst TrustIssuer
Forecasts as of January 2026.Jan 7, 2026 · ETFIQ takeuUBSBank
CIO maintains a positive investment outlook for global equitiesJan 6, 2026 · ETFIQ takeQuestions people ask
What does the J.P. Morgan paper conclude?
J.P. Morgan's November 2025 outlook says large US tech companies may spend over $500 billion on capex in 2026, versus $150 billion in 2023. The paper’s own words are at the link above.
What does ETFIQ’s data show on the same question?
From Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, the ETFs ETFIQ can count had a net flow of +$461.8bn, with +$239.1bn for stock ETFs and +$177.3bn for bond ETFs. ETFIQ states both figures and does not reconcile them.
What do ETF flows show about an outlook?
Where investors actually moved money over the same months: the net flow into stock and bond ETFs, dated, beside the paper’s forecast. More on this →
Where can I read “Outlook 2026: Promise and Pressure”?
On J.P. Morgan’s own site. ETFIQ summarizes the paper and does not host it. J.P. Morgan’s page ↗
Cite this pageCitation, APA and Markdown
ETFIQ, Outlook 2026: Promise and Pressure (J.P. Morgan), summary and ETFIQ take, as of Oct 21, 2026. https://etfiq.com/research/library/j-p-morgan-outlook-2026-promise-and-pressure/
Summary by ETFIQ. ETFIQ is not affiliated with J.P. Morgan; logos identify the source.