Eye on the Market, Outlook 2026: Smothering Heights
J.P. Morgan's January 2026 outlook says 42 AI-related firms produced 65%-75% of S&P 500 profits, earnings and capex since late 2022.
What it says
Figures as stated by J.P. Morgan, Jan 3, 2026- J.P. Morgan finds its 42 AI stocks gained 190% in price since November 2022, against 26% for the rest of the S&P 500, which trailed Europe, Japan and China.J.P. Morgan, p. 3
- J.P. Morgan says the market value of four hyperscalers and the chip makers they rely on grew from $3 trillion to $18 trillion in a few years.J.P. Morgan, p. 1
- J.P. Morgan estimates tech capital spending accounted for 40%-45% of the past three quarters' US GDP growth, versus less than 5% in 2023's first three quarters.J.P. Morgan, p. 3
- J.P. Morgan names four medium-term risks: US power limits, China building its own chip technology, Taiwan, and returns on $1.3 trillion of hyperscaler capex and R&D.J.P. Morgan, p. 1
- J.P. Morgan expects 2026 to echo 2025, with a 10%-15% pullback at some stage on a growth scare and profit-taking, followed by a higher year-end finish.J.P. Morgan, p. 3
The ETFIQ take
ETFIQ data to Oct 20, 2026 · the 713 of 4,807 ETFs ETFIQ covers with a daily figure, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026J.P. Morgan reports 42 AI-related firms produced 65%-75% of S&P 500 profits, earnings and capex since November 2022. From Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, the ETFs ETFIQ can count had a net flow of +$461.8bn, with +$239.1bn for stock ETFs and +$177.3bn for bond ETFs.
+$461.8bnnet flow, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, summed over the 713 of 4,807 ETFs ETFIQ covers with a daily figureOct 20, 2026 · ETFIQ →+$127.9bnnet flow, Sep 21, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, summed over the 746 of 4,807 ETFs ETFIQ covers with a daily figureOct 20, 2026 · ETFIQ →+$239.1bnnet flow into stock ETFs, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, over the 319 of 1,739 with a daily figureOct 20, 2026 · ETFIQ →+$177.3bnnet flow into bond ETFs, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, over the 184 of 833 with a daily figureOct 20, 2026 · ETFIQ →
Paper: S&P 500 and global equities, November 2022 to December 2025. ETFIQ: the 713 of 4,807 ETFs ETFIQ covers with a daily figure, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026. Net flow is the change in shares outstanding times the day’s NAV, summed over the days in the window, for the funds with a daily figure. The two sets and windows differ; the figures are stated, not reconciled.MethodData
Related ETFs
The largest ETFs ETFIQ covers, by net assetsVOOVanguard S&P 500 ETF+16.5%IVViShares Core S&P 500 ETF+16.5%SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust+16.4%VTIVanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF+15.9%QQQInvesco QQQ Trust, Series 1+19.2%VUGVanguard Morningstar Growth ETF+11.2%
Figure: total return, 1 year, to Oct 21, 2026, from each fund’s page. All 4,807 ETFs in the screener →
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What does the J.P. Morgan paper conclude?
J.P. Morgan's January 2026 outlook says 42 AI-related firms produced 65%-75% of S&P 500 profits, earnings and capex since late 2022. The paper’s own words are at the link above.
What does ETFIQ’s data show on the same question?
From Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, the ETFs ETFIQ can count had a net flow of +$461.8bn, with +$239.1bn for stock ETFs and +$177.3bn for bond ETFs. ETFIQ states both figures and does not reconcile them.
What do ETF flows show about an outlook?
Where investors actually moved money over the same months: the net flow into stock and bond ETFs, dated, beside the paper’s forecast. More on this →
Where can I read “Eye on the Market, Outlook 2026: Smothering Heights”?
On J.P. Morgan’s own site. ETFIQ summarizes the paper and does not host it. J.P. Morgan’s page ↗
Cite this pageCitation, APA and Markdown
ETFIQ, Eye on the Market, Outlook 2026: Smothering Heights (J.P. Morgan), summary and ETFIQ take, as of Oct 21, 2026. https://etfiq.com/research/library/j-p-morgan-eye-on-the-market-outlook-2026-smothering-heights/
Summary by ETFIQ. ETFIQ is not affiliated with J.P. Morgan; logos identify the source.