Forecasts as of January 2026.
In its January 2026 forecast, First Trust sets a year-end S&P 500 target of 6,000 and expects real GDP growth of 2% for 2026.
Outlooks· Web page
What it says
Figures as stated by First Trust, Jan 7, 2026- First Trust puts the S&P 500 at 6,000 by the end of 2026, after the index rose 16.4% last year despite the firm's call for a decline.First Trust
- First Trust forecasts unemployment of 4.6%, inflation of 2-2.5% and a 10-year Treasury yield of 3.5-4% for 2026.First Trust
- First Trust's base case calls for the Fed to lower rates by 25 basis points two or three more times in 2026, possibly more under a new Fed chair.First Trust
- First Trust notes the M2 money supply rose only 4.3% over the past year, which with 2.5% inflation leaves 1.8% for real growth.First Trust
- First Trust flags a slowdown in Europe, with UK output up 0.1% in Q3 and Germany's economy shrinking between April and September.First Trust
The ETFIQ take
ETFIQ data to Oct 20, 2026 · the 713 of 4,807 ETFs ETFIQ covers with a daily figure, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026First Trust reports a 2026 year-end target of 6,000 for the S&P 500, with real GDP growth of 2%. From Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, the ETFs ETFIQ can count had a net flow of +$461.8bn, with +$239.1bn for stock ETFs and +$177.3bn for bond ETFs.
+$461.8bnnet flow, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, summed over the 713 of 4,807 ETFs ETFIQ covers with a daily figureOct 20, 2026 · ETFIQ →+$127.9bnnet flow, Sep 21, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, summed over the 746 of 4,807 ETFs ETFIQ covers with a daily figureOct 20, 2026 · ETFIQ →+$239.1bnnet flow into stock ETFs, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, over the 319 of 1,739 with a daily figureOct 20, 2026 · ETFIQ →+$177.3bnnet flow into bond ETFs, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, over the 184 of 833 with a daily figureOct 20, 2026 · ETFIQ →
Paper: US economy and markets, forecasts for 2026. ETFIQ: the 713 of 4,807 ETFs ETFIQ covers with a daily figure, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026. Net flow is the change in shares outstanding times the day’s NAV, summed over the days in the window, for the funds with a daily figure. The two sets and windows differ; the figures are stated, not reconciled.MethodData
Related ETFs
The largest ETFs ETFIQ covers, by net assetsVOOVanguard S&P 500 ETF+16.5%IVViShares Core S&P 500 ETF+16.5%SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust+16.4%VTIVanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF+15.9%QQQInvesco QQQ Trust, Series 1+19.2%VUGVanguard Morningstar Growth ETF+11.2%
Figure: total return, 1 year, to Oct 21, 2026, from each fund’s page. All 4,807 ETFs in the screener →
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What does the First Trust paper conclude?
In its January 2026 forecast, First Trust sets a year-end S&P 500 target of 6,000 and expects real GDP growth of 2% for 2026. The paper’s own words are at the link above.
What does ETFIQ’s data show on the same question?
From Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, the ETFs ETFIQ can count had a net flow of +$461.8bn, with +$239.1bn for stock ETFs and +$177.3bn for bond ETFs. ETFIQ states both figures and does not reconcile them.
What do ETF flows show about an outlook?
Where investors actually moved money over the same months: the net flow into stock and bond ETFs, dated, beside the paper’s forecast. More on this →
Where can I read “Forecasts as of January 2026.”?
On First Trust’s own site. ETFIQ summarizes the paper and does not host it. First Trust’s page ↗
Cite this pageCitation, APA and Markdown
ETFIQ, Forecasts as of January 2026. (First Trust), summary and ETFIQ take, as of Oct 21, 2026. https://etfiq.com/research/library/first-trust-forecasts-as-of-january-2026/
Summary by ETFIQ. ETFIQ is not affiliated with First Trust; logos identify the source.