Leveraged and inverse ETFs promise a multiple of a single day's move, reset daily. Over the three months to Oct 19, 2026, 539 of 659 such funds finished short of that stated multiple. The median fund sat 5.2 percentage points below it, with a median distance travelled by the underlying of 5.7% and median underlying volatility of 48%.
This gap is not a flaw in any one fund. Because the multiple applies to each day separately, the results compound daily rather than adding up over the period. A fund that delivers exactly double its underlying's move on Monday and exactly double on Tuesday does not deliver double the two-day move once both days are combined, unless the underlying moved in a straight line. The first table shows this widening with time held: the median difference from stated is -0.8% at one month, -5.2% at three months, -7.4% at six months, -11.7% at one year, and -26.2% at three years. The number of funds in each window shrinks as the holding period lengthens, reflecting which funds had three years of history to measure.
The third table breaks the three-month numbers down by how much the underlying moved around, rather than by how long it was held. Funds tracking underlyings with volatility of 0% to 30% had a median difference from stated of -1.9%. That gap widens to -5.3% for the 30% to 50% band, -10.5% for 50% to 80%, and -15.6% for underlyings above 80% volatility. In each band, more than two-thirds of funds finished short of their stated multiple. The pattern holds across the volatility bands: the gap tracks how far the underlying travelled during the period, not simply where it ended up.
The second table shows what this means when more than one issuer offers the same stated multiple on the same underlying over the same days. Across 128 underlyings with more than one issuer at the same stated multiple, the spread between the closest and furthest fund varied by trade. On GME at +2x, with the underlying moving +21.5%, GMEC finished -7.6 points from stated while GMEU finished -14.5, a spread of 6.8 percentage points between two funds following the identical mandate over identical days. On XRP at +2x across three issuers, the underlying moved +16.5%, UXRP finished -18.4 and XXRP finished -23.9, a 5.4-point spread. Smaller but still present spreads appear in BMNR, MSTR, ONDS, RGTI, SMCI, SNDK, BE, PLTR, SPCX and IONQ, each at +2x on its own underlying. Because these funds share the same stated multiple, the same underlying, and the same trading days, the spread reflects differences in how each fund is built and run rather than anything about the underlying's move.
Readers can look up any individual leveraged or inverse fund on ETFIQ's fund pages to see its own stated multiple, the underlying it is measured against, and its difference from that multiple over one month, three months, six months, one year and three years.