Leveraged and inverse ETFs promise a fixed multiple of their underlying's daily move, reset each day. Over the three months to October 16, 2026, 525 of 644 such funds finished short of that stated multiple, with the median fund landing 5.2 points below it. This is not a flaw in any single fund. Because the multiple is delivered daily and then compounds, a string of days rarely adds up to the multiple times the period's overall move. The gap tends to widen with how far the underlying travels during the stretch, not simply with where the underlying ends up.
That pattern shows across different holding periods. Over one month, 472 of 677 funds fell short of their stated multiple, with a median difference of −1.4%. The shortfall grows as the window lengthens: six months shows a median difference of −7.4%, one year −11.8%, and three years −27.2%. Median underlying volatility also moves through these windows, from 42% at one month down to 20% at three years, reflecting the different mix of funds and underlyings captured at each horizon rather than a single trend in volatility itself.
The three-month data broken out by underlying volatility shows the same relationship in another form. Funds tracking underlyings with volatility of 30% or below had a median difference from stated of −1.9%, with 119 of 175 funds short. That gap widens step by step as volatility rises: −5.2% for the 30% to 50% band, −10.6% for 50% to 80%, and −15.2% for underlyings with volatility of 80% or above, where 113 of 130 funds finished short. In each band, more than half the funds landed short of their stated multiple.
A separate comparison looks at cases where more than one issuer runs a fund on the same underlying with the same stated multiple, 127 such underlyings in total. Even with identical mandates and identical trading days, the outcomes diverge. The widest spread appears in TSEM +2x, where the underlying moved −16.5% and the gap between the closest fund (TSEU, +1.2) and the furthest (TSEG, −12.0) came to 13.2 percentage points. Other pairs and groups show smaller but still material spreads: SMCI +2x funds ranged from SMCL (−26.4) to SMCC (−32.8), a 6.5-point spread, while BMNR +2x funds spread 6.2 points between BNMC (−18.5) and BMNG (−24.8). Further down the list, GME +2x, MSTR +2x, CPER +2x, RGTI +2x, ONDS +2x, CRCL +2x, PLTR +2x, SPCX +2x, and IONQ +2x each show spreads ranging from about 3.7 to 5.3 points between their closest and furthest funds, despite tracking the same underlying at the same stated multiple over the same days.
Readers can look up any individual fund's stated multiple, its underlying, and its measured difference over each of these windows on ETFIQ's fund pages.