Leveraged and inverse ETFs are built to deliver a stated multiple of their underlying's move, but only for a single day. Hold one past that, and daily results compound rather than add, so the fund's return over a stretch of time is not simply the multiple times the underlying's move over that stretch. The gap that opens up tracks how far the underlying travelled along the way, not just where it ended up. As of Sep 21, 2026, that gap shows up clearly across 532 leveraged and inverse ETFs measured over the three months to that date: 400 of them finished short of their own stated multiple, with the median fund landing 4.3 points short.
The size of the shortfall moves with the underlying's volatility, not with the fund's design alone. Grouped by three-month underlying volatility, funds tracking underlyings with 0% to 30% volatility had a median difference from stated of -1.8%, with 110 of 165 funds short. That widens to -5.5% for the 30% to 50% band, -7.9% for 50% to 80%, and -14.8% for underlyings at 80% volatility and above, where 105 of 123 funds finished short. Across holding periods, the one-month window shows a median difference of -1.5% against 1.9% median distance travelled and 45% median underlying volatility; by six months the median difference reaches -10.5% against 12.6% distance and 44% volatility. The one-year and three-year windows show smaller median differences (-8.3% and -0.8%) alongside markedly higher median distance travelled (14.3% and 39.3%) and lower median volatility (34% and 19%), reflecting a different mix of funds and underlyings in those longer-lived cohorts rather than a reversal of the pattern.
The data also lets the same trade be compared across issuers. 53 underlyings carry an identical stated multiple from more than one issuer, and even with the same mandate and the same days held, results differ. The widest spread appears in ETHA +2x, where four issuers priced against a +59.6% underlying move produced a 5.0% spread between the closest fund to stated (ETHU, -13.4) and the furthest (ETHT, -8.4). CPER +2x shows a 4.0% spread between CPXR (-1.7) and UCOP (-5.7) on a +4.8% underlying move, and XRPR +2x shows a 3.6% spread between XRPT (-12.7) and XXRP (-16.3) on a +32.1% move. Smaller spreads appear further down the table, including XLF +2x, where UYG (-1.8) and XLFX (-3.2) differ by 1.5% on a +4.5% underlying move.
Readers can pull up any individual fund on the live desk, check its stated multiple against its own underlying over the same dates, and see where it sits within these distributions.