Which did better when the S&P 500 fell, CTA or HOLD?

In the 26 weeks the S&P 500 fell, by 1.07% a week on average, CTA averaged −0.06% and HOLD −1.29%, so CTA returned more in those weeks.

Which earned more than cash, CTA or HOLD?

Over the same weeks, CTA finished level with cash and HOLD finished 3.3 percentage points behind cash. Cash here is BIL, a fund of Treasury bills.

Which is cheaper, CTA or HOLD?

CTA charges 0.86% a year and HOLD charges 0.70%, so HOLD is cheaper. Fees come from each fund's prospectus.

Data as of Nov 4, 2026.

Alternative ETFs

CTA vs HOLD: Correlation to the S&P 500

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Over the year to Nov 4, 2026, CTA moved less with the S&P 500 than HOLD: correlation −0.14 against +0.66.

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Net assets: $1.3bn on Nov 3, 2026 for Simplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF, and $3.9m on Nov 4, 2026 for Harbor Alpha Layering ETF.

CTA on its own →HOLD on its own →

At a glance

−0.14

CTA correlation with the S&P 500

+0.66

HOLD correlation with the S&P 500

5.3%

CTA down-week capture

120.5%

HOLD down-week capture

CTA Fell 5% as much as the S&P 500

CTA in the 26 weeks SPY fell, year to Nov 4, 2026: SPY averaged −1.07%, CTA −0.06%.

HOLD Fell more than the S&P 500

HOLD in the 26 weeks SPY fell, year to Nov 4, 2026: SPY averaged −1.07%, HOLD −1.29%.

Pair scorecard

HOLD costs 0.16 points a year less; their one-year returns differ by 3.8 points; CTA is far larger, $1.3bn against $3.9m.

CTA vs HOLD: Correlation to the S&P 500
Measure	CTA	HOLD
Return
Measure	CTA	HOLD
Total return, 1 year	+4.6%	+0.8%
Against its benchmark
Measure	CTA	HOLD
Treasury bills, 52 weeks	+3.7%
Cost and size
Measure	CTA	HOLD
Expense ratio	0.86%	0.70%
Net assets, as of Nov 3, 2026	$1.3bn	$3.9m
Holdings
Measure	CTA	HOLD
Holdings in common	not published
Risk
Measure	CTA	HOLD
Beta to the S&P 500	−0.30: about 0.30% for each 1%	+0.81: about 0.81% for each 1%
Its average week when the S&P 500 fell	fell 0.06%	fell 1.29%

ETFIQ Stock Diversification Score · CTA scores higher How much does it diversify a stock portfolio?

IQ Alternatives Score94.2CTA17.6HOLD

How much it diversifies a stock portfolio, ranked against 17 systematic trend alternatives ETFs with a full year. 100 is best. How it is computed

CTA 94.2

HOLD 17.6

2.9, the lowest in this set 94.2, the highest

One year of weekly moves against the S&P 500, within one strategy; it ignores what the fund returned. All alternatives ETFs ranked by it →

Method

Window by window

Window by window: CTA vs HOLD: Correlation to the S&P 500
	Total return		vs its benchmark
Window	CTA	HOLD	CTA	HOLD
3 months	+6.2%	−3.1%	not measured	−3.0 pts vs VOO
6 months	−10.8%	−7.5%	not measured	−12.5 pts vs VOO
1 year	+4.6%	+0.8%	not measured	−14.0 pts vs VOO
3 years	+22.3%	–	not measured	–
Since launchNot the same days: CTA Mar 2022 · HOLD Aug 2025	+37.8%	+10.3%	not measured	−10.3 pts vs VOO

– means no data for this window. Open this comparison in the app →

Side by side

CTA Simplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF · Managed futures fund: follows price trends in futures on stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities, and can bet on falls as well as rises HOLD Harbor Alpha Layering ETF · Managed futures fund: follows price trends in futures on stocks, bonds, currencies and commodities, and can bet on falls as well as rises

Issuer Simplify Harbor

Strategy Managed futures Managed futures

Correlation with the S&P 500 −0.14 +0.66

Beta to the S&P 500 −0.30 +0.81

Down-week capture 5.3% 120.5%

Average week when the S&P 500 fell −0.06% −1.29%

The S&P 500 in those weeks −1.07% −1.07%

Total return, same 52 weeks +3.6% +0.3%

Against T-bills, percentage points 0.0 pts −3.3 pts

Expense ratio 0.86% 0.70%

First traded Mar 8, 2022 Aug 14, 2025

Net assets, CTA as of Nov 3, 2026 and HOLD as of Nov 4, 2026 $1.3bn $3.9m

As of Nov 4, 2026. Source: ETFIQ.

One strategy, two funds

CTA and HOLD both run a managed futures strategy. Over the same 52 weeks to Nov 4, 2026, CTA’s weekly returns had a correlation of −0.14 with the S&P 500 and HOLD’s +0.66. In the 26 weeks the index fell, by 1.07% a week on average, CTA averaged −0.06% and HOLD −1.29%. Over the same weeks, CTA finished level with cash and HOLD finished 3.3 points behind cash.

Alert

About each fund

CTA

CTA is a managed futures fund. ETFIQ measures what every alternatives fund is sold on: whether it moves differently from the stock market. Over the year to Nov 4, 2026, its weekly returns had a correlation of −0.14 with the S&P 500’s and a beta of −0.30, so for each 1% the index moved it moved about 0.30% the other way. The S&P 500 fell in 26 of those 52 weeks, by 1.07% on average. In the same weeks CTA fell 0.06% on average, a down-week capture of 5.3%. Over the same 52 weeks CTA returned +3.6% and a Treasury bill fund +3.7%, so it finished level with cash.

HOLD

HOLD is a managed futures fund. Over the year to Nov 4, 2026, its weekly returns had a correlation of +0.66 with the S&P 500’s and a beta of +0.81, so for each 1% the index moved it moved about 0.81% the same way. In the same weeks HOLD fell 1.29% on average, a down-week capture of 120.5%. Over the same 52 weeks HOLD returned +0.3% and a Treasury bill fund +3.7%, so it finished 3.3 percentage points behind cash.

Questions people ask

Which moved less with the S&P 500, CTA or HOLD?: Over the 52 weeks to Nov 4, 2026, CTA’s weekly returns had a correlation of −0.14 with the S&P 500 and HOLD’s +0.66, so CTA moved less with the index.
Which did better when the S&P 500 fell, CTA or HOLD?: In the 26 weeks the S&P 500 fell, by 1.07% a week on average, CTA averaged −0.06% and HOLD −1.29%, so CTA returned more in those weeks.
Which earned more than cash, CTA or HOLD?: Over the same weeks, CTA finished level with cash and HOLD finished 3.3 percentage points behind cash. Cash here is BIL, a fund of Treasury bills.
Which is cheaper, CTA or HOLD?: CTA charges 0.86% a year and HOLD charges 0.70%, so HOLD is cheaper. Fees come from each fund's prospectus.

Other comparisons

CTA vs HFMF CTA vs PRAE CTA vs ISMF CTA vs MFUT HOLD vs KMLM HOLD vs RSST HOLD vs FFUT HOLD vs DBMF

Where to next

BIL, the T-bill fund these are measured against →SPY, the S&P 500 fund these are measured against →CTA on its own →HOLD on its own →CTA dividend history →HOLD dividend history →Method →Standards and sources →

Sources and dates

CTA filings on SEC EDGAR ↗

CTA prospectus with the expense ratio (SEC) ↗

Simplify website ↗

HOLD filings on SEC EDGAR ↗

HOLD prospectus with the expense ratio (SEC) ↗

Harbor page for HOLD ↗

Links are sources, not endorsements. A comparison is not a recommendation.

How this is computed

It is a place in a set, not a rating or a recommendation.

Every number is an ETFIQ calculation with distributions reinvested.

Cite this pageCitation, APA and Markdown

ETFIQ, CTA against HOLD, data as of Nov 4, 2026. https://etfiq.com/compare/alternatives/cta-vs-hold

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