As of Nov 4, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.
TMF daily tracking
Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, TMF missed three times 20+ Year Treasury's daily return by 8.8 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.
All 5
5 of 5 · click a column to sort| # | Window | Read on | Average daily miss, bp | Signed average, bp | Tracking error | Up days, bp | Down days, bp | Up less down, bp | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026: 17 of 22 days, from Oct 7, 2026 | NAV | 10.8 | −4.3 | 2.16% | −5.6 (11 days) | −1.9 (6 days) | −3.8 | Not enough days | |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026, 22 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 6.7 | −3.4 | 1.24% | −5.2 (16 days) | +1.5 (6 days) | −6.7 | Not enough days | |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, 63 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 8.8 | −4.0 | 1.72% | −7.2 (32 days) | −0.7 (31 days) | −6.5 | Significant (t −2.5) | |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026, 124 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 8.9 | −3.9 | 1.69% | −7.3 (62 days) | −0.5 (62 days) | −6.7 | Significant (t −3.7) | |
| 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, 251 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 9.5 | −4.1 | 1.81% | −7.8 (123 days) | −0.6 (128 days) | −7.3 | Significant (t −5.3) |
TMF's largest daily misses
The 5 days TMF strayed furthest from its daily target in the 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, each on its NAV where ETFIQ holds it, else its closing price.
| # | Day | Read on | 20+ Year Treasury moved | Target | TMF returned | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Oct 1, 2026 | closing price | +0.31% | +0.93% | +0.55% | −0.39 pts |
| 2 | Dec 19, 2025 | closing price | −0.37% | −1.11% | −1.47% | −0.35 pts |
| 3 | Apr 17, 2026 | closing price | +0.92% | +2.75% | +2.40% | −0.35 pts |
| 4 | Oct 15, 2026 | NAV | +1.46% | +4.37% | +4.05% | −0.32 pts |
| 5 | Sep 11, 2026 | closing price | +0.11% | +0.33% | +0.03% | −0.30 pts |
The daily miss is TMF's return each day less three times 20+ Year Treasury's return that day. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Each window is read twice where ETFIQ holds both NAVs: on NAVs, and on closing prices. It is stated on the closing price because NAVs for 17 of the 63 sessions. TMF ranks 7 of 31 3x leveraged ETFs on its 90-day average daily miss.
The rest of the method
Up days and down days split the miss by whether 20+ Year Treasury rose or fell; Significant means the gap is at least two standard errors from zero. The average miss carries its sign: a negative one is what the fund kept below its target each day, its fees and financing among it. 20+ Year Treasury is itself an ETF, so its own fee and tracking are inside the miss. Not every fund here has traded for a year, and a number over eight months does not order against one over twelve. This page lists each fund with its window and dates instead of ranking them. It becomes a ranking on the night four of them share a full year. Every window ETFIQ can measure for TMF is listed.
Links are sources, not endorsements. A ranking is not a recommendation or an opinion.
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ETFIQ, TMF daily tracking, listed by window, data as of Nov 4, 2026. https://etfiq.com/funds/tmf/tracking/
ETFIQ. (Nov 4, 2026). TMF daily tracking, listed by window. Retrieved from https://etfiq.com/funds/tmf/tracking/
[TMF daily tracking, listed by window (ETFIQ, Nov 4, 2026)](https://etfiq.com/funds/tmf/tracking/)
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