As of Nov 3, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.
TBT daily tracking
Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, TBT missed minus two times 20+ Year Treasury's daily return by 4.3 basis points a day on average, on its NAV.
All 8
8 of 8 · click a column to sort| # | Window | Read on | Average daily miss, bp | Signed average, bp | Tracking error | Up days, bp | Down days, bp | Up less down, bp | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026: 20 of 22 days, from Oct 7, 2026 | NAV (stated) | 5.4 | +3.5 | 1.28% | +3.4 (13 days) | +3.6 (7 days) | −0.1 | Not enough days | |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026, 22 daily returns | closing price | 15.0 | +3.4 | 2.90% | +1.5 (16 days) | +8.6 (6 days) | −7.1 | Not enough days | |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026: 60 of 63 days, from Aug 7, 2026 | NAV (stated) | 4.3 | +3.6 | 0.76% | +3.7 (30 days) | +3.6 (30 days) | +0.1 | Not significant (t 0.1) | |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, 63 daily returns | closing price | 15.7 | +3.0 | 3.56% | +0.4 (32 days) | +5.8 (31 days) | −5.4 | Not significant (t −1.0) | |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026: 119 of 124 days, from May 11, 2026 | NAV (stated) | 4.4 | +3.7 | 0.85% | +3.5 (59 days) | +3.8 (60 days) | −0.3 | Not significant (t −0.3) | |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026, 124 daily returns | closing price | 15.0 | +3.6 | 3.32% | +1.2 (62 days) | +6.0 (62 days) | −4.8 | Not significant (t −1.3) | |
| 1 year to Nov 4, 2026: 244 of 251 days, from Nov 5, 2025 | NAV (stated) | 4.3 | +3.7 | 0.83% | +3.7 (118 days) | +3.7 (126 days) | 0.0 | Not significant (t 0.1) | |
| 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, 251 daily returns | closing price | 13.5 | +3.7 | 2.92% | +2.5 (123 days) | +4.8 (128 days) | −2.4 | Not significant (t −1.0) |
TBT's largest daily misses
The 5 days TBT strayed furthest from its daily target in the 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, each on its NAV where ETFIQ holds it, else its closing price.
| # | Day | Read on | 20+ Year Treasury moved | Target | TBT returned | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan 2, 2026 | NAV | −0.20% | +0.40% | +0.83% | +0.43 pts |
| 2 | May 22, 2026 | NAV | +0.49% | −0.98% | −0.62% | +0.36 pts |
| 3 | Dec 31, 2025 | NAV | −0.73% | +1.45% | +1.13% | −0.32 pts |
| 4 | Oct 12, 2026 | NAV | +0.15% | −0.29% | 0.00% | +0.29 pts |
| 5 | May 26, 2026 | NAV | +0.53% | −1.05% | −1.29% | −0.24 pts |
The daily miss is TBT's return each day less minus two times 20+ Year Treasury's return that day. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Each window is read twice where ETFIQ holds both NAVs: on NAVs, and on closing prices. TBT ranks 26 of 75 2x inverse ETFs on its 90-day average daily miss. Up days and down days split the miss by whether 20+ Year Treasury rose or fell; Significant means the gap is at least two standard errors from zero. The average miss carries its sign: a negative one is what the fund kept below its target each day, its fees and financing among it. 20+ Year Treasury is itself an ETF, so its own fee and tracking are inside the miss. 4 NAV days were held out, where the NAV and the closing price disagreed about the day: Nov 11, 2025, Nov 12, 2025, Jul 2, 2026, Jul 6, 2026.
The rest of the method
Not every fund here has traded for a year, and a number over eight months does not order against one over twelve. This page lists each fund with its window and dates instead of ranking them. It becomes a ranking on the night four of them share a full year. Every window ETFIQ can measure for TBT is listed.
Links are sources, not endorsements. A ranking is not a recommendation or an opinion.
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ETFIQ, TBT daily tracking, listed by window, data as of Nov 3, 2026. https://etfiq.com/funds/tbt/tracking/
ETFIQ. (Nov 3, 2026). TBT daily tracking, listed by window. Retrieved from https://etfiq.com/funds/tbt/tracking/
[TBT daily tracking, listed by window (ETFIQ, Nov 3, 2026)](https://etfiq.com/funds/tbt/tracking/)
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