As of Nov 3, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.
TBF daily tracking
Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, TBF missed minus one times 20+ Year Treasury's daily return by 2.7 basis points a day on average, on its NAV.
All 8
8 of 8 · click a column to sort| # | Window | Read on | Average daily miss, bp | Signed average, bp | Tracking error | Up days, bp | Down days, bp | Up less down, bp | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026: 20 of 22 days, from Oct 7, 2026 | NAV (stated) | 3.3 | +2.4 | 0.64% | +2.4 (13 days) | +2.5 (7 days) | −0.1 | Not enough days | |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026, 22 daily returns | closing price | 9.5 | +2.0 | 1.87% | +1.8 (16 days) | +2.5 (6 days) | −0.8 | Not enough days | |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026: 60 of 63 days, from Aug 7, 2026 | NAV (stated) | 2.7 | +2.4 | 0.40% | +2.4 (30 days) | +2.3 (30 days) | +0.1 | Not significant (t 0.1) | |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, 63 daily returns | closing price | 9.3 | +2.4 | 1.80% | +0.1 (32 days) | +4.7 (31 days) | −4.5 | Not significant (t −1.6) | |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026: 120 of 124 days, from May 11, 2026 | NAV (stated) | 2.9 | +2.2 | 0.58% | +2.4 (59 days) | +2.0 (61 days) | +0.4 | Not significant (t 0.6) | |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026, 124 daily returns | closing price | 7.8 | +2.4 | 1.53% | +0.7 (62 days) | +4.1 (62 days) | −3.4 | Not significant (t −2.0) | |
| 1 year to Nov 4, 2026: 245 of 251 days, from Nov 5, 2025 | NAV (stated) | 2.8 | +2.3 | 0.50% | +2.4 (118 days) | +2.2 (127 days) | +0.2 | Not significant (t 0.5) | |
| 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, 251 daily returns | closing price | 7.9 | +2.4 | 1.54% | +2.8 (123 days) | +2.0 (128 days) | +0.8 | Not significant (t 0.6) |
TBF's largest daily misses
The 5 days TBF strayed furthest from its daily target in the 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, each on its NAV where ETFIQ holds it, else its closing price.
| # | Day | Read on | 20+ Year Treasury moved | Target | TBF returned | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jul 6, 2026 | NAV | −0.12% | +0.12% | −0.11% | −0.23 pts |
| 2 | Jan 2, 2026 | NAV | −0.20% | +0.20% | +0.42% | +0.22 pts |
| 3 | May 22, 2026 | NAV | +0.49% | −0.49% | −0.30% | +0.19 pts |
| 4 | Dec 31, 2025 | NAV | −0.73% | +0.73% | +0.58% | −0.15 pts |
| 5 | Oct 12, 2026 | NAV | +0.15% | −0.15% | 0.00% | +0.15 pts |
The daily miss is TBF's return each day less minus one times 20+ Year Treasury's return that day. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Each window is read twice where ETFIQ holds both NAVs: on NAVs, and on closing prices. TBF ranks 23 of 34 1x inverse ETFs on its 90-day average daily miss. Up days and down days split the miss by whether 20+ Year Treasury rose or fell; Significant means the gap is at least two standard errors from zero. The average miss carries its sign: a negative one is what the fund kept below its target each day, its fees and financing among it. 20+ Year Treasury is itself an ETF, so its own fee and tracking are inside the miss. 3 NAV days were held out, where the NAV and the closing price disagreed about the day: Nov 11, 2025, Nov 12, 2025, Jul 2, 2026.
The rest of the method
Not every fund here has traded for a year, and a number over eight months does not order against one over twelve. This page lists each fund with its window and dates instead of ranking them. It becomes a ranking on the night four of them share a full year. Every window ETFIQ can measure for TBF is listed.
Links are sources, not endorsements. A ranking is not a recommendation or an opinion.
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ETFIQ, TBF daily tracking, listed by window, data as of Nov 3, 2026. https://etfiq.com/funds/tbf/tracking/
ETFIQ. (Nov 3, 2026). TBF daily tracking, listed by window. Retrieved from https://etfiq.com/funds/tbf/tracking/
[TBF daily tracking, listed by window (ETFIQ, Nov 3, 2026)](https://etfiq.com/funds/tbf/tracking/)
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