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Data as of Oct 27, 2026.

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Alternative ETFs

CAOS vs TOAK: Correlation to the S&P 500

Over the year to Oct 27, 2026, CAOS moved less with the S&P 500 than TOAK: correlation −0.22 against +0.17.

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Net assets: $725m on Oct 26, 2026 for Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF, and $90m on May 31, 2026 for Manager Directed Portfolios Twin Oak Short Horizon Absolute Return ETF.

CAOS on its own →TOAK on its own →
At a glance
−0.22
CAOS correlation with the S&P 500
+0.17
TOAK correlation with the S&P 500
−4.3%
CAOS down-week capture
1.9%
TOAK down-week capture
CAOS Rose when the S&P 500 fell
Rose when the S&P 500 fellCAOS in the 25 weeks SPY fell, year to Oct 27, 2026: SPY averaged −1.10%, CAOS +0.05%.SPY−1.10%CAOS+0.05%Average week when SPY fell: 25 of 52, year to Oct 27, 2026Rose when the S&P 500 fellCAOS in the 25 weeks SPY fell, year to Oct 27, 2026: SPY averaged −1.10%, CAOS +0.05%.SPY−1.10%CAOS+0.05%Average week when SPY fell

CAOS in the 25 weeks SPY fell, year to Oct 27, 2026: SPY averaged −1.10%, CAOS +0.05%.

TOAK Fell 2% as much as the S&P 500
Fell 2% as much as the S&P 500TOAK in the 25 weeks SPY fell, year to Oct 27, 2026: SPY averaged −1.10%, TOAK −0.02%.SPY−1.10%TOAK−0.02%Average week when SPY fell: 25 of 52, year to Oct 27, 2026Fell 2% as much as the S&P 500TOAK in the 25 weeks SPY fell, year to Oct 27, 2026: SPY averaged −1.10%, TOAK −0.02%.SPY−1.10%TOAK−0.02%Average week when SPY fell

TOAK in the 25 weeks SPY fell, year to Oct 27, 2026: SPY averaged −1.10%, TOAK −0.02%.

Pair scorecard

TOAK costs 0.37 points a year less; their one-year returns differ by 2.1 points.

CAOS vs TOAK: Correlation to the S&P 500
MeasureCAOSTOAK
Return
Total return, 1 year+1.5%+3.6%
Against its benchmark
Treasury bills, 52 weeks+3.7%
Cost and size
Expense ratio0.63%0.26%
Net assets, CAOS as of Oct 26, 2026 and TOAK as of May 31, 2026$725m$90m
Holdings
Holdings in commonnot published
Risk
Beta to the S&P 500−0.02: about 0.02% for each 1%+0.04: about 0.04% for each 1%
Its average week when the S&P 500 fellrose 0.05%fell 0.02%
ETFIQ Stock Diversification Score · CAOS scores higher How much does it diversify a stock portfolio?
IQ Alternatives Score88.6CAOS79.5TOAK

How much it diversifies a stock portfolio, ranked against 22 equity hedged alternatives ETFs with a full year. 100 is best. How it is computed

8.0, the lowest in this set 97.7, the highest

A percentile among the 22 equity hedged alternatives ETFs with a full year. One year of weekly moves against the S&P 500, within one strategy; it ignores what the fund returned. All alternatives ETFs ranked by it →

Method

Window by window

Window by window: CAOS vs TOAK: Correlation to the S&P 500
Total return
WindowCAOSTOAK
3 months+0.9%+0.9%
6 months+0.8%+1.8%
1 year+1.5%+3.6%
3 years+12.8%–
Since launchNot the same days: CAOS Mar 2023 · TOAK Aug 2024+18.6%+8.9%

Source: ETFIQ. – means no data for this window. Open this comparison in the app →

Side by side

CAOS Alpha Architect Tail Risk ETF · Hedged equity fund: owns stocks and pays for protection against a fall, most often with put options TOAK Manager Directed Portfolios Twin Oak Short Horizon Absolute Return ETF · Hedged equity fund: owns stocks and pays for protection against a fall, most often with put options
Issuer Alpha Architect Manager Directed Portfolios
Strategy Hedged equity Hedged equity
Correlation with the S&P 500 −0.22 +0.17
Beta to the S&P 500 −0.02 +0.04
Down-week capture −4.3% 1.9%
Average week when the S&P 500 fell +0.05% −0.02%
The S&P 500 in those weeks −1.10% −1.10%
Total return, same 52 weeks +1.5% +3.6%
Against T-bills, percentage points −2.2 pts −0.1 pts
Expense ratio 0.63% 0.26%
First traded Mar 6, 2023 Aug 20, 2024
Net assets, CAOS as of Oct 26, 2026 and TOAK as of May 31, 2026 $725m $90m

As of Oct 27, 2026. Source: ETFIQ.

One strategy, two funds

CAOS and TOAK both run a hedged equity strategy. Over the same 52 weeks to Oct 27, 2026, CAOS’s weekly returns had a correlation of −0.22 with the S&P 500 and TOAK’s +0.17. In the 25 weeks the index fell, by 1.10% a week on average, CAOS averaged +0.05% and TOAK −0.02%. Over the same weeks, CAOS finished 2.2 percentage points behind cash and TOAK finished 0.1 points behind cash.

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About each fund
CAOS

CAOS is a hedged equity fund. ETFIQ measures what every alternatives fund is sold on: whether it moves differently from the stock market. Over the year to Oct 27, 2026, its weekly returns had a correlation of −0.22 with the S&P 500’s and a beta of −0.02, so for each 1% the index moved it moved about 0.02% the other way. The S&P 500 fell in 25 of those 52 weeks, by 1.10% on average. In the same weeks CAOS rose 0.05% on average, a down-week capture of −4.3%. Over the same 52 weeks CAOS returned +1.5% and a Treasury bill fund +3.7%, so it finished 2.2 percentage points behind cash.

TOAK

TOAK is a hedged equity fund. Over the year to Oct 27, 2026, its weekly returns had a correlation of +0.17 with the S&P 500’s and a beta of +0.04, so for each 1% the index moved it moved about 0.04% the same way. In the same weeks TOAK fell 0.02% on average, a down-week capture of 1.9%. Over the same 52 weeks TOAK returned +3.6% and a Treasury bill fund +3.7%, so it finished 0.1 percentage points behind cash.

Questions people ask

Which moved less with the S&P 500, CAOS or TOAK?
Over the 52 weeks to Oct 27, 2026, CAOS’s weekly returns had a correlation of −0.22 with the S&P 500 and TOAK’s +0.17, so CAOS moved less with the index.
Which did better when the S&P 500 fell, CAOS or TOAK?
In the 25 weeks the S&P 500 fell, by 1.10% a week on average, CAOS averaged +0.05% and TOAK −0.02%, so CAOS returned more in those weeks.
Which earned more than cash, CAOS or TOAK?
Over the same weeks, CAOS finished 2.2 percentage points behind cash and TOAK finished 0.1 percentage points behind cash. Cash here is BIL, a fund of Treasury bills.
Which is cheaper, CAOS or TOAK?
CAOS charges 0.63% a year and TOAK charges 0.26%, so TOAK is cheaper. Fees come from each fund's prospectus.
Other comparisons
CAOS vs ATTRCAOS vs QBERCAOS vs KSPYCAOS vs PHEQTOAK vs HEGDTOAK vs FHEQTOAK vs HEDGTOAK vs HEQT
Where to next
BIL, the T-bill fund these are measured against →SPY, the S&P 500 fund these are measured against →CAOS on its own →TOAK on its own →Method →Standards and sources →
Sources and dates
CAOS filings on SEC EDGAR ↗
CAOS prospectus with the expense ratio (SEC) ↗
Alpha Architect page for CAOS ↗
TOAK filings on SEC EDGAR ↗
TOAK prospectus with the expense ratio (SEC) ↗

Links are sources, not endorsements. A comparison is not a recommendation.

How this is computed

It is a place in a set, not a rating or a recommendation.

Every number is an ETFIQ calculation with distributions reinvested.

Cite this pageCitation, APA and Markdown

ETFIQ, CAOS against TOAK, data as of Oct 27, 2026. https://etfiq.com/compare/alternatives/caos-vs-toak

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