Three months to Oct 9, 2026: XPAV returned −14.1% where its own daily promise gave −11.8%, 2.3 points short.
−5.7%
What PAVE did
−11.8%
What 2 times a day gives
−14.1%
What the fund returned
−2.3 pts
The fund itself cost
What it aimed at, and what it did
Over the 1 month to Oct 9, 2026, XPAV returned −3.9%, where 2 times that move implies −2.7%. The difference is −1.1 pts. Of that, daily compounding is −0.2 pts and the fund itself −0.9 pts against its own daily promise.
Over the 3 months to Oct 9, 2026, XPAV returned −14.1%, where 2 times that move implies −11.4%. The difference is −2.7 pts. Of that, daily compounding is −0.4 pts and the fund itself −2.3 pts against its own daily promise.
From launch to Oct 9, 2026, XPAV returned −17.1%, where 2 times that move implies −13.1%. The difference is −4.0 pts. Of that, daily compounding is −0.8 pts and the fund itself −3.2 pts against its own daily promise.
ETFIQ Decay Resistance Score
64.5joint 183rd of 517
XPAV finished 2.3 points short of what +2 times PAVE’s daily move would have given, compounded through the same days.
points against its own daily promise, compounded−2.3 pts · 64th pct
That 2.7 is two pieces: daily compounding, −0.4 points, which happens to any 2 times fund over the same path, and the fund itself, −2.3 points against its own daily promise.
Summary
Read the multiple against the whole window instead and 2 times PAVE's −5.7% implies −11.4%, which makes XPAV look 2.7 points short.XPAV aims to return +2 times PAVE's move each day, then resets.Over one day it does that.Over longer, the daily results compound, so the total is not +2 times the period's move: in a market that falls and comes back it is reliably less, and in a steady run it can be more.PAVE moved at 17% annualized over that window.That is what decides how far the two figures separate: the same fund on a calm underlying and a violent one is a different product.
Sets out to return+2 times the daily move of PAVE, reset daily
Multiple a holder actually got over the window (ETFIQ)+2.47 times, against +2 stated
UnderlyingPAVE
Segmentsector or country, theme
Net assets (the issuer’s own daily fund list, as of Oct 9, 2026)$315,914
Expense ratio (485BPOS XBRL, May 28, 2026)0.45%
First tradedJun 3, 2026
Underlying volatility over the window (ETFIQ)17% annualized
How this is computed
Returns are ETFIQ calculations from Tiingo end-of-day prices, distributions reinvested, measured against the underlying over exactly the same days. How these figures are computed
Questions people ask about XPAV
Did XPAV return +2 times PAVE?
Over the three months to Oct 9, 2026, PAVE moved −5.7% and XPAV returned −14.1%. 2 times that move is −11.4%, so the fund came out 2.7 points short of it. Against its own daily promise, 2 times each day's move compounded, it was 2.3 points short.
Why does XPAV not return +2 times over a year?
Because it resets daily. XPAV aims at +2 times each day's move, and daily results compound. Over a run where the underlying falls and comes back, compounding a levered daily return leaves a holder behind what +2 times the period move would suggest; over a steady run in one direction it can leave them ahead. The longer the holding, and the more the underlying moves about, the further apart the two figures get.
What the fund sets out to return against its underlying, each day. A fund at 2x aims to return twice the underlying’s daily move, and an inverse fund at -2x aims to return twice it in the opposite direction.
Daily reset
The fund starts each day aiming at the multiple again, from wherever it now stands. It is the mechanism that makes these funds behave as they do, and the reason the stated multiple applies to a day rather than to a holding period.
Compounding
Daily results multiply together rather than adding up. Two days of the multiple is not twice the multiple, and over a run of days the difference between the two grows with how far the underlying moves about.
Decay
What compounding costs a holder when the underlying falls and rises back to where it started. The underlying is level and the fund is down; the more violently it moved, the further down.
Difference against the stated multiple
The fund’s return minus the stated multiple times the underlying’s return, in percentage points. The one figure that says whether a holder got what the fund’s own multiple describes.
XPAV, Leveraged ETFs, ETFIQ, data as of Oct 9, 2026. Every figure is calculated from a named public source; the method is at etfiq.com/methodology. ETFIQ is an independent publisher, is not a fund issuer, broker-dealer or investment adviser, and makes no recommendations.