The stated multiple and what the holder got

Leveraged and inverse ETFs promise a stated multiple of their underlying's daily move. Over the three months to Sep 10, 2026, 223 of 273 such funds finished short of that stated multiple, with the median fund landing 4.9 points from where the multiple alone would have put it. The median distance travelled by the underlying over the same window was 5.5%, and the median underlying volatility was 50%.

This gap is not a flaw in any one fund. These products reset daily: each day's gain or loss is calculated fresh against that day's starting value, then compounded into the next. Over a single day the stated multiple holds. Over many days, compounding a string of ups and downs does not equal the multiple applied once to the overall move, and the size of the shortfall tracks how much the underlying moved around along the way, not simply where it ended up. The data bears this out across time frames: at one month, 196 of 289 funds sat short of stated, with a median difference of -1.7% against median volatility of 45%. By three years, 61 of 87 funds were short, with the median difference widening to -28.9% against a median distance travelled of 41.7%, though volatility in that window was lower at 20%. The pattern linking volatility to the gap is also direct: underlyings with 0% to 30% volatility produced a median difference of -1.9% across 84 funds, while those with volatility of 80% and above produced a median difference of -18.0% across 76 funds.

A second question the data addresses is whether two funds chasing the same stated multiple on the same underlying, over the same days, land in the same place. They do not always. Across 48 underlyings tracked by more than one issuer at the same stated multiple, the spread between the closest and furthest fund ranged from 5.2 percentage points down to 1.4 percentage points among the pairs and trios listed. ETHA at +2x, tracked by three issuers as the underlying moved +46.1%, showed the widest spread: ETHU finished closest to stated at -4.7 and ETHT furthest at -0.5, a 5.2 point gap between funds with the same mandate held over the same period. At the other end, PLTR at +2x, also tracked by three issuers as the underlying moved +26.5%, showed PLTU at -15.2 and PLTG at -16.6, a 1.4 point spread.

Readers working from the live desk can pull up any individual fund's stated multiple alongside its own underlying and check the measured difference and distance for the window they choose, rather than relying on the multiple printed in the fund's name.