Data as of .
TBT vs TMF: which held to its multiple?
Over three months against its own daily promise, TBT finished 2.7 points over and TMF 2.0 points short.
ETFIQ Decay Resistance Score: TBT scores higher
Did it keep up with its own daily multiple, compounded day by day?
A percentile among the 121 inverse ETFs over three months. It is a position in a set, not a rating, and neither end of it is a recommendation. All leveraged ETFs ranked by it · How it is computed
Performance, window by window
| Window | Total return | Multiple would give | Difference | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBT | TMF | TBT | TMF | TBT | TMF | |
| 1 month | +2.9% | −4.6% | +2.3% | −3.4% | +0.6 pts | −1.2 pts |
| 3 months | +11.9% | −15.8% | +9.2% | −13.9% | +2.6 pts | −1.9 pts |
| 6 months | +13.1% | −18.1% | +8.7% | −13.1% | +4.3 pts | −5.1 pts |
| 1 year | +22.4% | −27.8% | +12.7% | −19.1% | +9.6 pts | −8.6 pts |
| 3 years | +27.4% | −44.9% | +5.1% | −7.7% | +22.2 pts | −37.2 pts |
| Since launch | −76.4% | −52.0% | −94.3% | +141.5% | +17.9 pts | −193.5 pts |
| TBT ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury Aims to return twice the opposite of the daily move of 20-year Treasuries (TLT) | TMF Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF Aims to return three times the daily move of 20-year Treasuries (TLT) | |
|---|---|---|
| Issuer | ProShares | Direxion |
| Sets out to return | -2x | +3x |
| On | TLT | TLT |
| Segment | bond | bond |
| Fund returned, 3 months | +11.9% | −15.8% |
| Underlying returned, 3 months | −4.6% | −4.6% |
| What the stated multiple implies, 3 months | +9.2% | −13.9% |
| Difference from stated, 3 months | +2.6 pts | −1.9 pts |
| Fund returned, 1 year or since launch | +22.4% | −27.8% |
| Difference from stated, over that window | +9.6 pts | −8.6 pts |
| Underlying volatility | 9% | 9% |
| Expense ratio | 0.93% | 0.90% |
| Launched | Jan 4, 2010 | Jan 4, 2010 |
TBT in plain words
Three months to Sep 11, 2026: TBT returned +11.9% where its own daily promise gave +9.2%, 2.7 points over. Read the multiple against the whole window instead and −2 times TLT's −4.6% implies +9.2%, which makes TBT look 2.6 points over. 0.1 of that is daily compounding, which happens to any −2 times fund over the same path, and the rest is the fund. TBT aims to return -2 times TLT's move each day, then resets. Over one day it does that. Over longer, the daily results compound, so the total is not -2 times the period's move: in a market that falls and comes back it is reliably less, and in a steady run it can be more. TLT moved at 9% annualized over that window. That is what decides how far the two figures separate: the same fund on a calm underlying and a violent one is a different product.
TMF in plain words
Three months to Sep 11, 2026: TMF returned −15.8% where its own daily promise gave −13.8%, 2.0 points short. Read the multiple against the whole window instead and +3 times TLT's −4.6% implies −13.9%, which makes TMF look 1.9 points short. 0.1 of that is daily compounding, which happens to any +3 times fund over the same path, and the rest is the fund. TMF aims to return +3 times TLT's move each day, then resets. Over longer, the daily results compound, so the total is not +3 times the period's move: in a market that falls and comes back it is reliably less, and in a steady run it can be more.
Questions people ask
- Which came closer to its stated multiple, TBT or TMF?
- Over the window to Sep 11, 2026, TBT finished 2.6 points from what its multiple implies and TMF finished 1.9 points from its own, so TMF came closer. Neither figure predicts the next window: it depends on how much the underlying moves about.
- Are TBT and TMF levered on the same thing?
- Yes. Both are levered on 20-year Treasuries, TBT at -2 times and TMF at +3 times the daily move.
- Which one decays faster, TBT or TMF?
- Decay follows how much the underlying moves about. Over this window TBT’s moved at 9% annualized and TMF’s at 9%, so TBT has the rougher ride and, at the same multiple, loses more to compounding.
- Can I hold TBT or TMF for a year?
- Both reset every day, so the multiple in the name applies to a single day and the daily results compound. Over a year the total is not the multiple times the year’s move, and in a market that falls and comes back it is reliably less. ETFIQ makes no recommendation either way.
- Which is cheaper, TBT or TMF?
- TBT charges 0.93% a year and TMF charges 0.90%, so TMF is cheaper. Fees come from each fund's prospectus.
Other comparisons
Where these figures came from
ETFIQ links to the documents behind every figure. It is not affiliated with any issuer, and a link is not an endorsement.
Cite this page. ETFIQ, TBT against TMF, data as of Sep 11, 2026. https://etfiq.com/compare/leverage/TBT-TMF Free to use with attribution; the underlying files are at Open data.