{"url":"https://etfiq.com/research/library/vanguard-2026-outlook-economic-upside-stock-market-downside/","section":"research","title":"2026 outlook: Economic upside, stock market downside | ETFIQ","description":"Vanguard's December 2025 outlook expects muted US stock returns over five to 10 years and sets its VEMO portfolio at 60% bonds and 40% stocks.","as_of":"Oct 21, 2026","structured_data":[{"@type":"Report","name":"Summary: 2026 outlook: Economic upside, stock market downside","headline":"2026 outlook: Economic upside, stock market downside","url":"https://etfiq.com/research/library/vanguard-2026-outlook-economic-upside-stock-market-downside/","datePublished":"2026-10-21","dateModified":"2026-10-21","author":{"@id":"https://etfiq.com/#org"},"publisher":{"@id":"https://etfiq.com/#org"},"about":"Market outlooks","abstract":"Vanguard's December 2025 outlook expects muted US stock returns over five to 10 years and sets its VEMO portfolio at 60% bonds and 40% stocks.","isBasedOn":"https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/vemo/2026-outlook-economic-upside-stock-market-downside.html","citation":{"@type":"Report","name":"2026 outlook: Economic upside, stock market downside","url":"https://corporate.vanguard.com/content/corporatesite/us/en/corp/vemo/2026-outlook-economic-upside-stock-market-downside.html","datePublished":"2025-12-10","publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Vanguard","url":"https://corporate.vanguard.com/"},"author":{"@type":"Organization","name":"Vanguard"}},"inLanguage":"en"},{"@type":"FAQPage","mainEntity":[{"@type":"Question","name":"What does the Vanguard paper conclude?","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"Vanguard's December 2025 outlook expects muted US stock returns over five to 10 years and sets its VEMO portfolio at 60% bonds and 40% stocks. The paper\u2019s own words are at the link above."}},{"@type":"Question","name":"What does ETFIQ\u2019s data show on the same question?","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"From Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, the ETFs ETFIQ can count had a net flow of +$461.8bn, with +$239.1bn for stock ETFs and +$177.3bn for bond ETFs. ETFIQ states both figures and does not reconcile them."}},{"@type":"Question","name":"What do ETF flows show about an outlook?","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"Where investors actually moved money over the same months: the net flow into stock and bond ETFs, dated, beside the paper\u2019s forecast."}},{"@type":"Question","name":"Where can I read \u201c2026 outlook: Economic upside, stock market downside\u201d?","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"On Vanguard\u2019s own site. ETFIQ summarizes the paper and does not host it."}}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"ETFIQ","item":"https://etfiq.com/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Research","item":"https://etfiq.com/research/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"name":"Library","item":"https://etfiq.com/research/library/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":4,"name":"Vanguard","item":"https://etfiq.com/research/library/vanguard/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":5,"name":"2026 outlook: Economic upside, stock m...","item":"https://etfiq.com/research/library/vanguard-2026-outlook-economic-upside-stock-market-downside/"}]},{"@type":"WebPage","name":"2026 outlook: Economic upside, stock market downside","description":"Vanguard's December 2025 outlook expects muted US stock returns over five to 10 years and sets its VEMO portfolio at 60% bonds and 40% stocks.","url":"https://etfiq.com/research/library/vanguard-2026-outlook-economic-upside-stock-market-downside/","dateModified":"2026-10-21","isPartOf":{"@type":"WebSite","name":"ETFIQ","url":"https://etfiq.com"},"speakable":{"@type":"SpeakableSpecification","cssSelector":[".lede",".faq"]},"publisher":{"@id":"https://etfiq.com/#org"}}],"characters":4890,"truncated":false,"content":"ETFIQ / Research / Library / Vanguard / 2026 outlook: Economic upside, stock m... \n \n Published Dec 10, 2025 by Vanguard. Summary by ETFIQ as of Oct 21, 2026.\n 2026 outlook: Economic upside, stock market downside\n Vanguard's December 2025 outlook expects muted US stock returns over five to 10 years and sets its VEMO portfolio at 60% bonds and 40% stocks. \n Vanguard \u00b7 Issuer \u00b7 Read the full paper at Vanguard \u2197 \n What it says\n Figures as stated by Vanguard, Dec 10, 2025\n Vanguard's projections over a five to 10 year horizon put high-quality US bonds first on risk and return, followed by US value stocks and non-US developed market stocks. (Vanguard)\n Vanguard expects returns on US stocks, growth stocks in particular, to be muted, while it sees bonds as attractive. (Vanguard)\n Vanguard says AI adoption is speeding up and could lift productivity broadly, but sees more opportunity outside the hyperscalers behind massive AI investment, despite their strong earnings outlook. (Vanguard)\n Vanguard says its positioning is meant to hold up whether AI transforms the economy or disappoints while government deficits come to dominate markets. (Vanguard)\n The ETFIQ take\n ETFIQ data to Oct 20, 2026 \u00b7 the 713 of 4,807 ETFs ETFIQ covers with a daily figure, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026\n Vanguard reports an outlook portfolio of 60% bonds and 40% stocks, based on five to 10 year projections. From Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, the ETFs ETFIQ can count had a net flow of +$461.8bn, with +$239.1bn for stock ETFs and +$177.3bn for bond ETFs.\n +$461.8bn net flow, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, summed over the 713 of 4,807 ETFs ETFIQ covers with a daily figure , Oct 20, 2026. ETFIQ \n +$127.9bn net flow, Sep 21, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, summed over the 746 of 4,807 ETFs ETFIQ covers with a daily figure , Oct 20, 2026. ETFIQ \n +$239.1bn net flow into stock ETFs, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, over the 319 of 1,739 with a daily figure , Oct 20, 2026. ETFIQ \n +$177.3bn net flow into bond ETFs, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, over the 184 of 833 with a daily figure , Oct 20, 2026. ETFIQ \n\n Paper: US and global asset classes, five to 10 year horizon. ETFIQ: the 713 of 4,807 ETFs ETFIQ covers with a daily figure, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026. Net flow is the change in shares outstanding times the day\u2019s NAV, summed over the days in the window, for the funds with a daily figure. The two sets and windows differ; the figures are stated, not reconciled. Method Data \n\n Related ETFs\n The largest ETFs ETFIQ covers, by net assets\n VOO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF: +16.5%\n IVV iShares Core S&P 500 ETF: +16.5%\n SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust: +16.4%\n VTI Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF: +15.9%\n QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1: +19.2%\n VUG Vanguard Morningstar Growth ETF: +11.2%\n Figure: total return, 1 year, to Oct 21, 2026, from each fund\u2019s page. All 4,807 ETFs in the screener \u2192 \n Related papers\n State Street Investment Management \u00b7 Issuer \u00b7 Apr 22, 2026 \u00b7 ETFIQ take\n Market Forecasts: Q2 2026 \n In its April 2026 forecasts, State Street Investment Management expects US economic growth of 2.3% in 2026, a slight cut tied to recent geopolitical events.\n Outlooks Bonds Read the paper \u2197 \n First Trust \u00b7 Issuer \u00b7 Jan 7, 2026 \u00b7 ETFIQ take\n Forecasts as of January 2026. \n In its January 2026 forecast, First Trust sets a year-end S&P 500 target of 6,000 and expects real GDP growth of 2% for 2026.\n Outlooks Read the paper \u2197 \n UBS \u00b7 Bank \u00b7 Jan 6, 2026 \u00b7 ETFIQ take\n CIO maintains a positive investment outlook for global equities \n UBS's January 2026 note keeps a positive view on global equities and sees around 10% upside by year-end for MSCI's All Country World index.\n Outlooks Themes Read the paper \u2197 \n All 9 papers on outlooks \u2192 \n Questions people ask\n What does the Vanguard paper conclude? Vanguard's December 2025 outlook expects muted US stock returns over five to 10 years and sets its VEMO portfolio at 60% bonds and 40% stocks. The paper\u2019s own words are at the link above. What does ETFIQ\u2019s data show on the same question? From Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, the ETFs ETFIQ can count had a net flow of +$461.8bn, with +$239.1bn for stock ETFs and +$177.3bn for bond ETFs. ETFIQ states both figures and does not reconcile them. What do ETF flows show about an outlook? Where investors actually moved money over the same months: the net flow into stock and bond ETFs, dated, beside the paper\u2019s forecast. Where can I read \u201c2026 outlook: Economic upside, stock market downside\u201d? On Vanguard\u2019s own site. ETFIQ summarizes the paper and does not host it. ETFIQ, 2026 outlook: Economic upside, stock market downside (Vanguard), summary and ETFIQ take, as of Oct 21, 2026. https://etfiq.com/research/library/vanguard-2026-outlook-economic-upside-stock-market-downside/ Free to use with attribution . Open data \n Summary by ETFIQ. ETFIQ is not affiliated with Vanguard; logos identify the source.","source":"ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.","publisher":{"@id":"https://etfiq.com/#org","name":"ETFIQ","url":"https://etfiq.com"},"license":"https://etfiq.com/license/","license_text":"Figures ETFIQ computes are free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.","citation":"ETFIQ, 2026 outlook: Economic upside, stock market downside (Vanguard), summary and ETFIQ take, as of Oct 21, 2026. https://etfiq.com/research/library/vanguard-2026-outlook-economic-upside-stock-market-downside/"}