# Outlook 2026: Promise and Pressure (J.P. Morgan)

> J.P. Morgan's November 2025 outlook says large US tech companies may spend over $500 billion on capex in 2026, versus $150 billion in 2023.

Data as of Oct 21, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

Published Nov 17, 2025 by J.P. Morgan. Summary by ETFIQ as of Oct 21, 2026.

## Outlook 2026: Promise and Pressure

J.P. Morgan's November 2025 outlook says large US tech companies may spend over $500 billion on capex in 2026, versus $150 billion in 2023.

J.P. Morgan · Bank · Read the full paper at J.P. Morgan ↗

### What it says

Figures as stated by J.P. Morgan, Nov 17, 2025

- J.P. Morgan puts AI investment at around 1% of GDP and says past technology build-outs suggest it could still double. (J.P. Morgan, p. 4)

- J.P. Morgan says the Bloomberg US Aggregate Index now yields about 4.3%, versus roughly 1% in 2020, and expects mid-single-digit returns for most bond types. (J.P. Morgan, p. 49)

- J.P. Morgan, citing PitchBook, says the 10 largest private AI companies are worth about $1.5 trillion together, versus $3 trillion for all US listed small caps. (J.P. Morgan, p. 21)

- J.P. Morgan says gold rose over 50% in 2025 so far, and crypto's market value passed $4 trillion, versus $2 trillion as 2024 began. (J.P. Morgan, p. 11)

- J.P. Morgan cites a National Municipal Bond Index yield near 3.6% against 10-year inflation expectations of 2.3%. (J.P. Morgan, p. 49)

### The ETFIQ take

ETFIQ data to Oct 20, 2026 · the 713 of 4,807 ETFs ETFIQ covers with a daily figure, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026

J.P. Morgan reports large US tech firms' annual capex could exceed $500 billion in 2026, versus $150 billion in 2023. From Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, the ETFs ETFIQ can count had a net flow of +$461.8bn, with +$239.1bn for stock ETFs and +$177.3bn for bond ETFs.

+$461.8bn net flow, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, summed over the 713 of 4,807 ETFs ETFIQ covers with a daily figure , Oct 20, 2026. ETFIQ

+$127.9bn net flow, Sep 21, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, summed over the 746 of 4,807 ETFs ETFIQ covers with a daily figure , Oct 20, 2026. ETFIQ

+$239.1bn net flow into stock ETFs, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, over the 319 of 1,739 with a daily figure , Oct 20, 2026. ETFIQ

+$177.3bn net flow into bond ETFs, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, over the 184 of 833 with a daily figure , Oct 20, 2026. ETFIQ

Paper: Global economy and markets, outlook for 2026. ETFIQ: the 713 of 4,807 ETFs ETFIQ covers with a daily figure, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026. Net flow is the change in shares outstanding times the day’s NAV, summed over the days in the window, for the funds with a daily figure. The two sets and windows differ; the figures are stated, not reconciled. Method Data

### Related ETFs

The largest ETFs ETFIQ covers, by net assets

- VOO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF: +16.5%

- IVV iShares Core S&P 500 ETF: +16.5%

- SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust: +16.4%

- VTI Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF: +15.9%

- QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1: +19.2%

- VUG Vanguard Morningstar Growth ETF: +11.2%

Figure: total return, 1 year, to Oct 21, 2026, from each fund’s page. All 4,807 ETFs in the screener →

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Outlooks Bonds Read the paper ↗

First Trust · Issuer · Jan 7, 2026 · ETFIQ take

#### Forecasts as of January 2026.

In its January 2026 forecast, First Trust sets a year-end S&P 500 target of 6,000 and expects real GDP growth of 2% for 2026.

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UBS · Bank · Jan 6, 2026 · ETFIQ take

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All 9 papers on outlooks →

### Questions people ask

What does the J.P. Morgan paper conclude? J.P. Morgan's November 2025 outlook says large US tech companies may spend over $500 billion on capex in 2026, versus $150 billion in 2023. The paper’s own words are at the link above. What does ETFIQ’s data show on the same question? From Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, the ETFs ETFIQ can count had a net flow of +$461.8bn, with +$239.1bn for stock ETFs and +$177.3bn for bond ETFs. ETFIQ states both figures and does not reconcile them. What do ETF flows show about an outlook? Where investors actually moved money over the same months: the net flow into stock and bond ETFs, dated, beside the paper’s forecast. Where can I read “Outlook 2026: Promise and Pressure”? On J.P. Morgan’s own site. ETFIQ summarizes the paper and does not host it.

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Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ, Outlook 2026: Promise and Pressure (J.P. Morgan), summary and ETFIQ take, as of Oct 21, 2026. https://etfiq.com/research/library/j-p-morgan-outlook-2026-promise-and-pressure/
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