{"url":"https://etfiq.com/research/library/j-p-morgan-eye-on-the-market-outlook-2026-smothering-heights/","section":"research","title":"Eye on the Market, Outlook 2026: Smothering Heights | ETFIQ","description":"J.P. Morgan's January 2026 outlook says 42 AI-related firms produced 65%-75% of S&P 500 profits, earnings and capex since late 2022. Summary by ETFIQ.","as_of":"Oct 21, 2026","structured_data":[{"@type":"Report","name":"Summary: Eye on the Market, Outlook 2026: Smothering Heights","headline":"Eye on the Market, Outlook 2026: Smothering Heights","url":"https://etfiq.com/research/library/j-p-morgan-eye-on-the-market-outlook-2026-smothering-heights/","datePublished":"2026-10-21","dateModified":"2026-10-21","author":{"@id":"https://etfiq.com/#org"},"publisher":{"@id":"https://etfiq.com/#org"},"about":"Market outlooks","abstract":"J.P. Morgan's January 2026 outlook says 42 AI-related firms produced 65%-75% of S&P 500 profits, earnings and capex since late 2022.","isBasedOn":"https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/smothering-heights-amv.pdf","citation":{"@type":"Report","name":"Eye on the Market, Outlook 2026: Smothering Heights","url":"https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/global/en/insights/eye-on-the-market/smothering-heights-amv.pdf","datePublished":"2026-01-03","publisher":{"@type":"Organization","name":"J.P. Morgan","url":"https://www.jpmorgan.com/"},"author":{"@type":"Organization","name":"J.P. Morgan"}},"inLanguage":"en"},{"@type":"FAQPage","mainEntity":[{"@type":"Question","name":"What does the J.P. Morgan paper conclude?","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"J.P. Morgan's January 2026 outlook says 42 AI-related firms produced 65%-75% of S&P 500 profits, earnings and capex since late 2022. The paper\u2019s own words are at the link above."}},{"@type":"Question","name":"What does ETFIQ\u2019s data show on the same question?","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"From Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, the ETFs ETFIQ can count had a net flow of +$461.8bn, with +$239.1bn for stock ETFs and +$177.3bn for bond ETFs. ETFIQ states both figures and does not reconcile them."}},{"@type":"Question","name":"What do ETF flows show about an outlook?","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"Where investors actually moved money over the same months: the net flow into stock and bond ETFs, dated, beside the paper\u2019s forecast."}},{"@type":"Question","name":"Where can I read \u201cEye on the Market, Outlook 2026: Smothering Heights\u201d?","acceptedAnswer":{"@type":"Answer","text":"On J.P. Morgan\u2019s own site. ETFIQ summarizes the paper and does not host it."}}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"ETFIQ","item":"https://etfiq.com/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Research","item":"https://etfiq.com/research/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"name":"Library","item":"https://etfiq.com/research/library/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":4,"name":"J.P. Morgan","item":"https://etfiq.com/research/library/j-p-morgan/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":5,"name":"Eye on the Market, Outlook 2026: Smoth...","item":"https://etfiq.com/research/library/j-p-morgan-eye-on-the-market-outlook-2026-smothering-heights/"}]},{"@type":"WebPage","name":"Eye on the Market, Outlook 2026: Smothering Heights","description":"J.P. Morgan's January 2026 outlook says 42 AI-related firms produced 65%-75% of S&P 500 profits, earnings and capex since late 2022. Summary by ETFIQ.","url":"https://etfiq.com/research/library/j-p-morgan-eye-on-the-market-outlook-2026-smothering-heights/","dateModified":"2026-10-21","isPartOf":{"@type":"WebSite","name":"ETFIQ","url":"https://etfiq.com"},"speakable":{"@type":"SpeakableSpecification","cssSelector":[".lede",".faq"]},"publisher":{"@id":"https://etfiq.com/#org"}}],"characters":5110,"truncated":false,"content":"ETFIQ / Research / Library / J.P. Morgan / Eye on the Market, Outlook 2026: Smoth... \n \n Published Jan 3, 2026 by J.P. Morgan. Summary by ETFIQ as of Oct 21, 2026.\n Eye on the Market, Outlook 2026: Smothering Heights\n J.P. Morgan's January 2026 outlook says 42 AI-related firms produced 65%-75% of S&P 500 profits, earnings and capex since late 2022. \n J.P. Morgan \u00b7 Bank \u00b7 Read the full paper at J.P. Morgan \u2197 \n What it says\n Figures as stated by J.P. Morgan, Jan 3, 2026\n J.P. Morgan finds its 42 AI stocks gained 190% in price since November 2022, against 26% for the rest of the S&P 500, which trailed Europe, Japan and China. (J.P. Morgan, p. 3)\n J.P. Morgan says the market value of four hyperscalers and the chip makers they rely on grew from $3 trillion to $18 trillion in a few years. (J.P. Morgan, p. 1)\n J.P. Morgan estimates tech capital spending accounted for 40%-45% of the past three quarters' US GDP growth, versus less than 5% in 2023's first three quarters. (J.P. Morgan, p. 3)\n J.P. Morgan names four medium-term risks: US power limits, China building its own chip technology, Taiwan, and returns on $1.3 trillion of hyperscaler capex and R&D. (J.P. Morgan, p. 1)\n J.P. Morgan expects 2026 to echo 2025, with a 10%-15% pullback at some stage on a growth scare and profit-taking, followed by a higher year-end finish. (J.P. Morgan, p. 3)\n The ETFIQ take\n ETFIQ data to Oct 20, 2026 \u00b7 the 713 of 4,807 ETFs ETFIQ covers with a daily figure, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026\n J.P. Morgan reports 42 AI-related firms produced 65%-75% of S&P 500 profits, earnings and capex since November 2022. From Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, the ETFs ETFIQ can count had a net flow of +$461.8bn, with +$239.1bn for stock ETFs and +$177.3bn for bond ETFs.\n +$461.8bn net flow, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, summed over the 713 of 4,807 ETFs ETFIQ covers with a daily figure , Oct 20, 2026. ETFIQ \n +$127.9bn net flow, Sep 21, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, summed over the 746 of 4,807 ETFs ETFIQ covers with a daily figure , Oct 20, 2026. ETFIQ \n +$239.1bn net flow into stock ETFs, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, over the 319 of 1,739 with a daily figure , Oct 20, 2026. ETFIQ \n +$177.3bn net flow into bond ETFs, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, over the 184 of 833 with a daily figure , Oct 20, 2026. ETFIQ \n\n Paper: S&P 500 and global equities, November 2022 to December 2025. ETFIQ: the 713 of 4,807 ETFs ETFIQ covers with a daily figure, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026. Net flow is the change in shares outstanding times the day\u2019s NAV, summed over the days in the window, for the funds with a daily figure. The two sets and windows differ; the figures are stated, not reconciled. Method Data \n\n Related ETFs\n The largest ETFs ETFIQ covers, by net assets\n VOO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF: +16.5%\n IVV iShares Core S&P 500 ETF: +16.5%\n SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust: +16.4%\n VTI Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF: +15.9%\n QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1: +19.2%\n VUG Vanguard Morningstar Growth ETF: +11.2%\n Figure: total return, 1 year, to Oct 21, 2026, from each fund\u2019s page. All 4,807 ETFs in the screener \u2192 \n Related papers\n State Street Investment Management \u00b7 Issuer \u00b7 Apr 22, 2026 \u00b7 ETFIQ take\n Market Forecasts: Q2 2026 \n In its April 2026 forecasts, State Street Investment Management expects US economic growth of 2.3% in 2026, a slight cut tied to recent geopolitical events.\n Outlooks Bonds Read the paper \u2197 \n First Trust \u00b7 Issuer \u00b7 Jan 7, 2026 \u00b7 ETFIQ take\n Forecasts as of January 2026. \n In its January 2026 forecast, First Trust sets a year-end S&P 500 target of 6,000 and expects real GDP growth of 2% for 2026.\n Outlooks Read the paper \u2197 \n UBS \u00b7 Bank \u00b7 Jan 6, 2026 \u00b7 ETFIQ take\n CIO maintains a positive investment outlook for global equities \n UBS's January 2026 note keeps a positive view on global equities and sees around 10% upside by year-end for MSCI's All Country World index.\n Outlooks Themes Read the paper \u2197 \n All 9 papers on outlooks \u2192 \n Questions people ask\n What does the J.P. Morgan paper conclude? J.P. Morgan's January 2026 outlook says 42 AI-related firms produced 65%-75% of S&P 500 profits, earnings and capex since late 2022. The paper\u2019s own words are at the link above. What does ETFIQ\u2019s data show on the same question? From Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, the ETFs ETFIQ can count had a net flow of +$461.8bn, with +$239.1bn for stock ETFs and +$177.3bn for bond ETFs. ETFIQ states both figures and does not reconcile them. What do ETF flows show about an outlook? Where investors actually moved money over the same months: the net flow into stock and bond ETFs, dated, beside the paper\u2019s forecast. Where can I read \u201cEye on the Market, Outlook 2026: Smothering Heights\u201d? On J.P. Morgan\u2019s own site. ETFIQ summarizes the paper and does not host it. ETFIQ, Eye on the Market, Outlook 2026: Smothering Heights (J.P. Morgan), summary and ETFIQ take, as of Oct 21, 2026. https://etfiq.com/research/library/j-p-morgan-eye-on-the-market-outlook-2026-smothering-heights/ Free to use with attribution . Open data \n Summary by ETFIQ. ETFIQ is not affiliated with J.P. Morgan; logos identify the source.","source":"ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.","publisher":{"@id":"https://etfiq.com/#org","name":"ETFIQ","url":"https://etfiq.com"},"license":"https://etfiq.com/license/","license_text":"Figures ETFIQ computes are free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.","citation":"ETFIQ, Eye on the Market, Outlook 2026: Smothering Heights (J.P. Morgan), summary and ETFIQ take, as of Oct 21, 2026. https://etfiq.com/research/library/j-p-morgan-eye-on-the-market-outlook-2026-smothering-heights/"}