# Forecasts as of January 2026. (First Trust)

> In its January 2026 forecast, First Trust sets a year-end S&P 500 target of 6,000 and expects real GDP growth of 2% for 2026. Summary by ETFIQ.

Data as of Oct 21, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

Published Jan 7, 2026 by First Trust. Summary by ETFIQ as of Oct 21, 2026.

## Forecasts as of January 2026.

In its January 2026 forecast, First Trust sets a year-end S&P 500 target of 6,000 and expects real GDP growth of 2% for 2026.

First Trust · Issuer · Read the full paper at First Trust ↗

### What it says

Figures as stated by First Trust, Jan 7, 2026

- First Trust puts the S&P 500 at 6,000 by the end of 2026, after the index rose 16.4% last year despite the firm's call for a decline. (First Trust)

- First Trust forecasts unemployment of 4.6%, inflation of 2-2.5% and a 10-year Treasury yield of 3.5-4% for 2026. (First Trust)

- First Trust's base case calls for the Fed to lower rates by 25 basis points two or three more times in 2026, possibly more under a new Fed chair. (First Trust)

- First Trust notes the M2 money supply rose only 4.3% over the past year, which with 2.5% inflation leaves 1.8% for real growth. (First Trust)

- First Trust flags a slowdown in Europe, with UK output up 0.1% in Q3 and Germany's economy shrinking between April and September. (First Trust)

### The ETFIQ take

ETFIQ data to Oct 20, 2026 · the 713 of 4,807 ETFs ETFIQ covers with a daily figure, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026

First Trust reports a 2026 year-end target of 6,000 for the S&P 500, with real GDP growth of 2%. From Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, the ETFs ETFIQ can count had a net flow of +$461.8bn, with +$239.1bn for stock ETFs and +$177.3bn for bond ETFs.

+$461.8bn net flow, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, summed over the 713 of 4,807 ETFs ETFIQ covers with a daily figure , Oct 20, 2026. ETFIQ

+$127.9bn net flow, Sep 21, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, summed over the 746 of 4,807 ETFs ETFIQ covers with a daily figure , Oct 20, 2026. ETFIQ

+$239.1bn net flow into stock ETFs, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, over the 319 of 1,739 with a daily figure , Oct 20, 2026. ETFIQ

+$177.3bn net flow into bond ETFs, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, over the 184 of 833 with a daily figure , Oct 20, 2026. ETFIQ

Paper: US economy and markets, forecasts for 2026. ETFIQ: the 713 of 4,807 ETFs ETFIQ covers with a daily figure, Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026. Net flow is the change in shares outstanding times the day’s NAV, summed over the days in the window, for the funds with a daily figure. The two sets and windows differ; the figures are stated, not reconciled. Method Data

### Related ETFs

The largest ETFs ETFIQ covers, by net assets

- VOO Vanguard S&P 500 ETF: +16.5%

- IVV iShares Core S&P 500 ETF: +16.5%

- SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust: +16.4%

- VTI Vanguard Morningstar Total Stock Market ETF: +15.9%

- QQQ Invesco QQQ Trust, Series 1: +19.2%

- VUG Vanguard Morningstar Growth ETF: +11.2%

Figure: total return, 1 year, to Oct 21, 2026, from each fund’s page. All 4,807 ETFs in the screener →

### Related papers

State Street Investment Management · Issuer · Apr 22, 2026 · ETFIQ take

#### Market Forecasts: Q2 2026

In its April 2026 forecasts, State Street Investment Management expects US economic growth of 2.3% in 2026, a slight cut tied to recent geopolitical events.

Outlooks Bonds Read the paper ↗

UBS · Bank · Jan 6, 2026 · ETFIQ take

#### CIO maintains a positive investment outlook for global equities

UBS's January 2026 note keeps a positive view on global equities and sees around 10% upside by year-end for MSCI's All Country World index.

Outlooks Themes Read the paper ↗

J.P. Morgan · Bank · Jan 3, 2026 · ETFIQ take

#### Eye on the Market, Outlook 2026: Smothering Heights

J.P. Morgan's January 2026 outlook says 42 AI-related firms produced 65%-75% of S&P 500 profits, earnings and capex since late 2022.

Outlooks Themes Read the paper ↗

All 9 papers on outlooks →

### Questions people ask

What does the First Trust paper conclude? In its January 2026 forecast, First Trust sets a year-end S&P 500 target of 6,000 and expects real GDP growth of 2% for 2026. The paper’s own words are at the link above. What does ETFIQ’s data show on the same question? From Jan 2, 2026 to Oct 20, 2026, the ETFs ETFIQ can count had a net flow of +$461.8bn, with +$239.1bn for stock ETFs and +$177.3bn for bond ETFs. ETFIQ states both figures and does not reconcile them. What do ETF flows show about an outlook? Where investors actually moved money over the same months: the net flow into stock and bond ETFs, dated, beside the paper’s forecast. Where can I read “Forecasts as of January 2026.”? On First Trust’s own site. ETFIQ summarizes the paper and does not host it.

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Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ, Forecasts as of January 2026. (First Trust), summary and ETFIQ take, as of Oct 21, 2026. https://etfiq.com/research/library/first-trust-forecasts-as-of-january-2026/
Licence: https://etfiq.com/license/ Figures ETFIQ computes are free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.
HTML: https://etfiq.com/research/library/first-trust-forecasts-as-of-january-2026/