# How a prediction market ETF pays

> An event contract settles at $1.00 or $0.00. What four issuers do with that, and what each states about the venue, the subsidiary and the risk of total loss.

Data as of Sep 25, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

Data as of Sep 25, 2026 .

## How a prediction market ETF pays

An event contract is a derivative that settles at exactly $1.00 if a stated event happens and $0.00 if it does not, so its price between those two sits where the market puts the chance of the event. A fund holding one side of a resolved question is therefore holding something that ends at one of two numbers, and the filings warn that it may lose substantially all of its value. Two things differ between these issuers: whether a fund tracks one event or a portfolio of them, and how much each states about how it holds them.

| Issuer | What the fund holds | Funds filed | Where the contracts trade | Holds them through | States near-total loss |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Bitwise | one event per fund | 12 | CFTC-regulated designated contract market | Cayman Islands | yes |
| Direxion | a portfolio of contracts | 4 | designated contract market | Cayman Islands | not stated |
| GraniteShares | one event per fund | 6 | CFTC-regulated designated contract market | Cayman Islands | yes |
| Roundhill | one event per fund | 6 | CFTC-regulated designated contract market | Cayman Islands | yes |

### Read from these filings

- Bitwise Funds Trust, form 485APOS, filed Feb 17, 2026 accession 0001213900-26-017412

- Bitwise Funds Trust, form 485APOS, filed May 1, 2026 accession 0001213900-26-051014

- Direxion Shares ETF Trust, form 485APOS, filed Sep 21, 2026 accession 0001193125-26-396805

- GraniteShares ETF Trust, form 485APOS, filed Feb 17, 2026 accession 0001493152-26-007125

- Roundhill ETF Trust, form 485APOS, filed Feb 13, 2026 accession 0001398344-26-003166

Every name, date and figure on this page is read from the registration statements above. Where a filing leaves a value blank, this page says so rather than showing a placeholder. None of these funds trades, so there are no prices, fees or returns here.

### Where to next

### Where these figures came from

ETFIQ links to the documents behind every figure. It is not affiliated with any issuer, and a link is not an endorsement.

ETFIQ is an independent publisher and makes no recommendations; every figure is calculated from published data. Standards and sources

Cite this page. ETFIQ, How a prediction market ETF pays, data as of Sep 25, 2026. https://etfiq.com/prediction-markets/how-a-binary-fund-pays/ Free to use with attribution ; the underlying files are at Open data .

Other forms Plain ETFIQ, How a prediction market ETF pays, data as of Sep 25, 2026. https://etfiq.com/prediction-markets/how-a-binary-fund-pays/ APA ETFIQ. (Sep 25, 2026). How a prediction market ETF pays. Retrieved from https://etfiq.com/prediction-markets/how-a-binary-fund-pays/ Markdown [How a prediction market ETF pays (ETFIQ, Sep 25, 2026)](https://etfiq.com/prediction-markets/how-a-binary-fund-pays/)

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Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ, as of Sep 25, 2026. https://etfiq.com/prediction-markets/how-a-binary-fund-pays
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