# Trend following: Rules, Holdings and Paper Record

> Trend following: the rule, what it holds at the Nov 3, 2026 close, its signal and its paper record. A hypothetical ETF strategy. Based on Faber, 2007.

Data as of Nov 3, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

Data as of Nov 3, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

## Trend following

Hold each of five asset classes while it trades above its 10-month average, else hold cash.

At the Nov 3, 2026 close Trend following is partly in and holds SPY 20%, GSG 20%, VNQ 20% and 1 more, with 20% in cash. Hypothetical back-test since 2010: +4.2% a year against AOR’s +7.6%, deepest fall −13.7%.

Hypothetical. No money is invested.

| Fund | Name | Weight |
| --- | --- | --- |
| SPY | SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust | 20.1% |
| GSG | iShares GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust Fund | 20.1% |
| Cash | | 20.0% |
| VNQ | Vanguard Real Estate ETF | 20.0% |
| EFA | iShares MSCI EAFE ETF | 19.9% |

### The rule

- Hold each of five asset classes while it trades above its 10-month average, else hold cash.

- A rule reads the close of the last trading day of the month and trades at the next close.

- The universe is 5 funds; the benchmark is iShares Core 60/40 Balanced Allocation ETF (AOR).

- It is checked at each month end.

Source: Faber, M. (2007). A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation. Journal of Wealth Management 9(4), 69-79.

Computed by ETFIQ from Tiingo daily prices. Data sourced by Tiingo .

### Where to next

---

Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ Strategy Lab, Trend following, data as of Nov 3, 2026. https://etfiq.com/models/strategies/trend-following/
Licence: https://etfiq.com/license/ Data ETFIQ computes is free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.
HTML: https://etfiq.com/models/strategies/trend-following/