# UPSX Tracking Error: Up vs Down Days

> Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, UPSX missed two times UPST's daily return by 34.3 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

Data as of Nov 4, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

As of Nov 4, 2026 . Rebuilt every trading night.

## UPSX daily tracking

Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, UPSX missed two times UPST's daily return by 34.3 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

| Window | Read on | Average daily miss, bp | Signed average, bp | Tracking error | Up days, bp | Down days, bp | Up less down, bp | Confidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026, 22 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 42.7 | −5.1 | 8.31% | −8.6 (12 days) | −0.9 (10 days) | −7.7 | Not significant (t −0.3) |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, 63 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 34.3 | −8.4 | 6.96% | −14.0 (27 days) | −4.1 (36 days) | −9.9 | Not significant (t −0.9) |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026, 124 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 38.0 | −7.5 | 7.45% | −9.8 (57 days) | −5.5 (67 days) | −4.3 | Not significant (t −0.5) |
| 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, 251 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 35.0 | −7.6 | 7.01% | −9.2 (122 days) | −6.2 (129 days) | −3.1 | Not significant (t −0.6) |

### UPSX's largest daily misses

The 5 days UPSX strayed furthest from its daily target in the 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, each on its NAV where ETFIQ holds it, else its closing price.

| # | Day | Read on | UPST moved | Target | UPSX returned | Miss |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Mar 23, 2026 | closing price | +7.43% | +14.86% | +13.56% | −1.30 pts |
| 2 | Aug 7, 2026 | closing price | +4.64% | +9.29% | +8.05% | −1.24 pts |
| 3 | Apr 10, 2026 | closing price | −0.55% | −1.09% | −2.26% | −1.16 pts |
| 4 | Jul 16, 2026 | closing price | −2.25% | −4.50% | −3.38% | +1.11 pts |
| 5 | Aug 12, 2026 | closing price | −2.64% | −5.29% | −4.20% | +1.09 pts |

### Method

The daily miss is UPSX's return each day less two times UPST's return that day. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Each window is read twice where ETFIQ holds both NAVs: on NAVs, and on closing prices. It is stated on the closing price because its NAV or its target's is not struck at the 4:00 p.m. close. UPSX ranks 323 of 494 2x leveraged ETFs on its 90-day average daily miss. Up days and down days split the miss by whether UPST rose or fell; Significant means the gap is at least two standard errors from zero. The average miss carries its sign: a negative one is what the fund kept below its target each day, its fees and financing among it. Not every fund here has traded for a year, and a number over eight months does not order against one over twelve. This page lists each fund with its window and dates instead of ranking them. It becomes a ranking on the night four of them share a full year. Every window ETFIQ can measure for UPSX is listed.

### Where to next

### Sources

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A ranking is not a recommendation or an opinion. ETFIQ is an independent publisher, not an adviser. Standards and sources

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Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ, UPSX daily tracking, listed by window, data as of Nov 4, 2026. https://etfiq.com/funds/upsx/tracking/
Licence: https://etfiq.com/license/ Data ETFIQ computes is free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.
HTML: https://etfiq.com/funds/upsx/tracking/