# UPRO Tracking Error: Up vs Down Days

> Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, UPRO missed three times S&P500's daily return by 4.1 basis points a day on average, on its NAV. No fund is recommended.

Data as of Nov 3, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

As of Nov 3, 2026 . Rebuilt every trading night.

## UPRO daily tracking

Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, UPRO missed three times S&P500's daily return by 4.1 basis points a day on average, on its NAV.

| Window | Read on | Average daily miss, bp | Signed average, bp | Tracking error | Up days, bp | Down days, bp | Up less down, bp | Confidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026: 20 of 22 days, from Oct 7, 2026 | NAV (stated) | 4.0 | −4.0 | 0.43% | −3.9 (9 days) | −4.2 (11 days) | +0.3 | Not enough days |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026, 22 daily returns | closing price | 5.2 | −4.0 | 0.85% | −3.1 (11 days) | −4.9 (11 days) | +1.8 | Not significant (t 0.8) |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026: 60 of 63 days, from Aug 7, 2026 | NAV (stated) | 4.1 | −4.1 | 0.39% | −4.4 (25 days) | −3.8 (35 days) | −0.6 | Not significant (t −0.9) |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, 63 daily returns | closing price | 5.1 | −4.0 | 0.84% | −4.7 (29 days) | −3.4 (34 days) | −1.3 | Not significant (t −0.9) |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026: 121 of 124 days, from May 11, 2026 | NAV (stated) | 4.0 | −4.0 | 0.40% | −4.3 (59 days) | −3.8 (62 days) | −0.6 | Not significant (t −1.2) |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026, 124 daily returns | closing price | 6.3 | −4.0 | 1.20% | −5.5 (62 days) | −2.4 (62 days) | −3.1 | Significant (t −2.3) |
| 1 year to Nov 4, 2026: 248 of 251 days, from Nov 5, 2025 | NAV (stated) | 4.1 | −4.1 | 0.39% | −4.2 (129 days) | −4.0 (119 days) | −0.3 | Not significant (t −0.9) |
| 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, 251 daily returns | closing price | 5.7 | −4.1 | 1.02% | −5.4 (131 days) | −2.8 (120 days) | −2.5 | Significant (t −3.2) |

### UPRO's largest daily misses

The 5 days UPRO strayed furthest from its daily target in the 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, each on its NAV where ETFIQ holds it, else its closing price.

| # | Day | Read on | S&P500 moved | Target | UPRO returned | Miss |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Jul 2, 2026 | NAV | 0.00% | +0.01% | −0.11% | −0.12 pts |
| 2 | Feb 13, 2026 | NAV | +0.06% | +0.19% | +0.08% | −0.11 pts |
| 3 | Apr 2, 2026 | NAV | +0.12% | +0.35% | +0.25% | −0.11 pts |
| 4 | Jun 26, 2026 | NAV | −0.05% | −0.14% | −0.24% | −0.11 pts |
| 5 | Sep 4, 2026 | NAV | −0.36% | −1.08% | −1.19% | −0.11 pts |

### Method

The daily miss is UPRO's return each day less three times S&P500's return that day. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Each window is read twice where ETFIQ holds both NAVs: on NAVs, and on closing prices. UPRO ranks 3 of 31 3x leveraged ETFs on its 90-day average daily miss. Up days and down days split the miss by whether S&P500 rose or fell; Significant means the gap is at least two standard errors from zero. The average miss carries its sign: a negative one is what the fund kept below its target each day, its fees and financing among it. S&P500 is itself an ETF, so its own fee and tracking are inside the miss. Not every fund here has traded for a year, and a number over eight months does not order against one over twelve. This page lists each fund with its window and dates instead of ranking them. It becomes a ranking on the night four of them share a full year. Every window ETFIQ can measure for UPRO is listed.

### Where to next

### Sources

Links are sources, not endorsements.

A ranking is not a recommendation or an opinion. ETFIQ is an independent publisher, not an adviser. Standards and sources

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Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ, UPRO daily tracking, listed by window, data as of Nov 3, 2026. https://etfiq.com/funds/upro/tracking/
Licence: https://etfiq.com/license/ Data ETFIQ computes is free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.
HTML: https://etfiq.com/funds/upro/tracking/