# UPAL Tracking Error: Up vs Down Days

> Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, UPAL missed two times Palladium K-1 Free's daily return by 27.1 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

Data as of Nov 4, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

As of Nov 4, 2026 . Rebuilt every trading night.

## UPAL daily tracking

Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, UPAL missed two times Palladium K-1 Free's daily return by 27.1 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

| Window | Read on | Average daily miss, bp | Signed average, bp | Tracking error | Up days, bp | Down days, bp | Up less down, bp | Confidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026, 22 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 23.3 | −14.3 | 3.96% | −20.6 (5 days) | −13.9 (16 days) | −6.8 | Not enough days |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, 63 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 27.1 | −10.2 | 5.08% | −17.9 (27 days) | −4.9 (35 days) | −12.9 | Not significant (t −1.5) |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026, 124 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 30.1 | −9.6 | 5.71% | −17.5 (58 days) | −2.8 (65 days) | −14.7 | Significant (t −2.3) |

### UPAL's largest daily misses

The 5 days UPAL strayed furthest from its daily target in the 180 days to Nov 4, 2026, each on its NAV where ETFIQ holds it, else its closing price.

| # | Day | Read on | Palladium K-1 Free moved | Target | UPAL returned | Miss |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Aug 17, 2026 | closing price | +1.09% | +2.17% | +0.95% | −1.22 pts |
| 2 | May 26, 2026 | closing price | +2.53% | +5.06% | +4.08% | −0.98 pts |
| 3 | Jul 14, 2026 | closing price | +4.27% | +8.53% | +7.65% | −0.89 pts |
| 4 | May 11, 2026 | closing price | +2.01% | +4.02% | +3.19% | −0.83 pts |
| 5 | Jun 8, 2026 | closing price | −1.34% | −2.68% | −3.50% | −0.81 pts |

### Method

The daily miss is UPAL's return each day less two times Palladium K-1 Free's return that day. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Each window is read twice where ETFIQ holds both NAVs: on NAVs, and on closing prices. It is stated on the closing price because its NAV or its target's is not struck at the 4:00 p.m. close. UPAL ranks 258 of 494 2x leveraged ETFs on its 90-day average daily miss. Up days and down days split the miss by whether Palladium K-1 Free rose or fell; Significant means the gap is at least two standard errors from zero. The average miss carries its sign: a negative one is what the fund kept below its target each day, its fees and financing among it. Palladium K-1 Free is itself an ETF, so its own fee and tracking are inside the miss. Not every fund here has traded for a year, and a number over eight months does not order against one over twelve. This page lists each fund with its window and dates instead of ranking them. It becomes a ranking on the night four of them share a full year. Every window ETFIQ can measure for UPAL is listed.

### Where to next

### Sources

Links are sources, not endorsements.

A ranking is not a recommendation or an opinion. ETFIQ is an independent publisher, not an adviser. Standards and sources

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Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ, UPAL daily tracking, listed by window, data as of Nov 4, 2026. https://etfiq.com/funds/upal/tracking/
Licence: https://etfiq.com/license/ Data ETFIQ computes is free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.
HTML: https://etfiq.com/funds/upal/tracking/