# UMAL Tracking Error: Up vs Down Days

> Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, UMAL missed two times UMAC's daily return by 69.1 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

Data as of Nov 4, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

As of Nov 4, 2026 . Rebuilt every trading night.

## UMAL daily tracking

Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, UMAL missed two times UMAC's daily return by 69.1 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

| Window | Read on | Average daily miss, bp | Signed average, bp | Tracking error | Up days, bp | Down days, bp | Up less down, bp | Confidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026: 20 of 22 days, from Oct 7, 2026 | NAV (stated) | 19.1 | −17.8 | 2.50% | −15.2 (6 days) | −18.9 (14 days) | +3.8 | Not enough days |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026, 22 daily returns | closing price | 60.8 | −23.2 | 12.34% | −25.6 (7 days) | −22.1 (15 days) | −3.4 | Not enough days |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, 63 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 69.1 | −16.4 | 14.05% | +3.6 (25 days) | −29.6 (38 days) | +33.2 | Not significant (t 1.4) |

### UMAL's largest daily misses

The 5 days UMAL strayed furthest from its daily target in the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, each on its NAV where ETFIQ holds it, else its closing price.

| # | Day | Read on | UMAC moved | Target | UMAL returned | Miss |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Sep 23, 2026 | closing price | −5.58% | −11.15% | −13.56% | −2.40 pts |
| 2 | Sep 22, 2026 | closing price | −0.91% | −1.81% | +0.17% | +1.98 pts |
| 3 | Aug 10, 2026 | closing price | +3.94% | +7.89% | +6.22% | −1.67 pts |
| 4 | Aug 17, 2026 | closing price | −11.48% | −22.96% | −24.50% | −1.54 pts |
| 5 | Aug 18, 2026 | closing price | +1.43% | +2.85% | +4.35% | +1.50 pts |

### Method

The daily miss is UMAL's return each day less two times UMAC's return that day. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Each window is read twice where ETFIQ holds both NAVs: on NAVs, and on closing prices. It is stated on the closing price because NAVs for 20 of the 63 sessions. UMAL ranks 475 of 494 2x leveraged ETFs on its 90-day average daily miss. Up days and down days split the miss by whether UMAC rose or fell; Significant means the gap is at least two standard errors from zero. The average miss carries its sign: a negative one is what the fund kept below its target each day, its fees and financing among it. Not every fund here has traded for a year, and a number over eight months does not order against one over twelve. This page lists each fund with its window and dates instead of ranking them. It becomes a ranking on the night four of them share a full year. Every window ETFIQ can measure for UMAL is listed.

### Where to next

### Sources

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A ranking is not a recommendation or an opinion. ETFIQ is an independent publisher, not an adviser. Standards and sources

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Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ, UMAL daily tracking, listed by window, data as of Nov 4, 2026. https://etfiq.com/funds/umal/tracking/
Licence: https://etfiq.com/license/ Data ETFIQ computes is free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.
HTML: https://etfiq.com/funds/umal/tracking/