# TYD Tracking Error: Up vs Down Days

> Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, TYD missed three times 7-10 Year Treasury's daily return by 10.1 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

Data as of Nov 4, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

As of Nov 4, 2026 . Rebuilt every trading night.

## TYD daily tracking

Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, TYD missed three times 7-10 Year Treasury's daily return by 10.1 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

| Window | Read on | Average daily miss, bp | Signed average, bp | Tracking error | Up days, bp | Down days, bp | Up less down, bp | Confidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026: 19 of 22 days, from Oct 7, 2026 | NAV (stated) | 5.9 | −4.1 | 0.97% | −5.2 (13 days) | −1.9 (6 days) | −3.3 | Not enough days |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026, 22 daily returns | closing price | 10.9 | −4.4 | 2.01% | −3.0 (14 days) | −6.7 (8 days) | +3.7 | Not enough days |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, 63 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 10.1 | −4.1 | 1.87% | −4.1 (29 days) | −4.1 (34 days) | 0.0 | Not significant (t 0.0) |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026, 124 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 10.6 | −3.9 | 1.96% | −5.9 (61 days) | −1.8 (62 days) | −4.1 | Not significant (t −1.9) |
| 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, 251 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 10.2 | −4.0 | 1.90% | −6.7 (122 days) | −1.5 (126 days) | −5.2 | Significant (t −3.5) |

### TYD's largest daily misses

The 5 days TYD strayed furthest from its daily target in the 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, each on its NAV where ETFIQ holds it, else its closing price.

| # | Day | Read on | 7-10 Year Treasury moved | Target | TYD returned | Miss |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | May 20, 2026 | closing price | +0.68% | +2.03% | +1.65% | −0.38 pts |
| 2 | May 8, 2026 | closing price | +0.26% | +0.79% | +0.45% | −0.34 pts |
| 3 | Sep 17, 2026 | closing price | +0.57% | +1.72% | +1.40% | −0.32 pts |
| 4 | Nov 21, 2025 | closing price | +0.33% | +0.99% | +0.70% | −0.29 pts |
| 5 | Jul 14, 2026 | closing price | +0.28% | +0.84% | +0.55% | −0.29 pts |

### Method

The daily miss is TYD's return each day less three times 7-10 Year Treasury's return that day. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Each window is read twice where ETFIQ holds both NAVs: on NAVs, and on closing prices. It is stated on the closing price because NAVs for 19 of the 63 sessions. TYD ranks 8 of 31 3x leveraged ETFs on its 90-day average daily miss. Up days and down days split the miss by whether 7-10 Year Treasury rose or fell; Significant means the gap is at least two standard errors from zero. The average miss carries its sign: a negative one is what the fund kept below its target each day, its fees and financing among it. 7-10 Year Treasury is itself an ETF, so its own fee and tracking are inside the miss. 1 NAV day was held out, where the NAV and the closing price disagreed about the day: Nov 3, 2026. Not every fund here has traded for a year, and a number over eight months does not order against one over twelve. This page lists each fund with its window and dates instead of ranking them. It becomes a ranking on the night four of them share a full year. Every window ETFIQ can measure for TYD is listed.

### Where to next

### Sources

Links are sources, not endorsements.

A ranking is not a recommendation or an opinion. ETFIQ is an independent publisher, not an adviser. Standards and sources

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Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ, TYD daily tracking, listed by window, data as of Nov 4, 2026. https://etfiq.com/funds/tyd/tracking/
Licence: https://etfiq.com/license/ Data ETFIQ computes is free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.
HTML: https://etfiq.com/funds/tyd/tracking/