# TTT Tracking Error: Up vs Down Days

> Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, TTT missed minus three times 20+ Year Treasury's daily return by 5.2 basis points a day on average, on its NAV.

Data as of Nov 3, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

As of Nov 3, 2026 . Rebuilt every trading night.

## TTT daily tracking

Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, TTT missed minus three times 20+ Year Treasury's daily return by 5.2 basis points a day on average, on its NAV.

| Window | Read on | Average daily miss, bp | Signed average, bp | Tracking error | Up days, bp | Down days, bp | Up less down, bp | Confidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026: 19 of 22 days, from Oct 7, 2026 | NAV (stated) | 5.8 | +2.7 | 1.32% | +1.8 (12 days) | +4.3 (7 days) | −2.5 | Not enough days |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026, 22 daily returns | closing price | 20.3 | +4.3 | 3.95% | −2.1 (16 days) | +21.1 (6 days) | −23.2 | Not enough days |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026: 59 of 63 days, from Aug 7, 2026 | NAV (stated) | 5.2 | +4.2 | 0.82% | +3.7 (29 days) | +4.6 (30 days) | −0.9 | Not significant (t −0.7) |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, 63 daily returns | closing price | 19.7 | +4.9 | 3.86% | +3.7 (32 days) | +6.2 (31 days) | −2.6 | Not significant (t −0.4) |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026: 118 of 124 days, from May 11, 2026 | NAV (stated) | 5.7 | +3.5 | 1.33% | +3.3 (57 days) | +3.7 (61 days) | −0.4 | Not significant (t −0.3) |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026, 124 daily returns | closing price | 20.7 | +4.8 | 4.07% | +3.1 (62 days) | +6.4 (62 days) | −3.3 | Not significant (t −0.7) |
| 1 year to Nov 4, 2026: 243 of 251 days, from Nov 5, 2025 | NAV (stated) | 5.8 | +4.3 | 1.28% | +4.4 (116 days) | +4.2 (127 days) | +0.2 | Not significant (t 0.2) |
| 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, 251 daily returns | closing price | 19.8 | +5.0 | 4.03% | +6.2 (123 days) | +3.7 (128 days) | +2.5 | Not significant (t 0.8) |

### TTT's largest daily misses

The 5 days TTT strayed furthest from its daily target in the 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, each on its NAV where ETFIQ holds it, else its closing price.

| # | Day | Read on | 20+ Year Treasury moved | Target | TTT returned | Miss |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Jul 6, 2026 | NAV | −0.12% | +0.37% | −0.28% | −0.65 pts |
| 2 | Jan 2, 2026 | NAV | −0.20% | +0.61% | +1.23% | +0.62 pts |
| 3 | Dec 31, 2025 | NAV | −0.73% | +2.18% | +1.69% | −0.49 pts |
| 4 | May 26, 2026 | NAV | +0.53% | −1.58% | −1.93% | −0.35 pts |
| 5 | Oct 13, 2026 | NAV | +0.39% | −1.17% | −1.46% | −0.29 pts |

### Method

The daily miss is TTT's return each day less minus three times 20+ Year Treasury's return that day. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Each window is read twice where ETFIQ holds both NAVs: on NAVs, and on closing prices. TTT ranks 18 of 19 3x inverse ETFs on its 90-day average daily miss. Up days and down days split the miss by whether 20+ Year Treasury rose or fell; Significant means the gap is at least two standard errors from zero. The average miss carries its sign: a negative one is what the fund kept below its target each day, its fees and financing among it. 20+ Year Treasury is itself an ETF, so its own fee and tracking are inside the miss. 5 NAV days were held out, where the NAV and the closing price disagreed about the day: Nov 11, 2025, Nov 12, 2025, May 22, 2026, Jul 2, 2026, Oct 12, 2026. Not every fund here has traded for a year, and a number over eight months does not order against one over twelve. This page lists each fund with its window and dates instead of ranking them. It becomes a ranking on the night four of them share a full year. Every window ETFIQ can measure for TTT is listed.

### Where to next

### Sources

Links are sources, not endorsements.

A ranking is not a recommendation or an opinion. ETFIQ is an independent publisher, not an adviser. Standards and sources

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Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ, TTT daily tracking, listed by window, data as of Nov 3, 2026. https://etfiq.com/funds/ttt/tracking/
Licence: https://etfiq.com/license/ Data ETFIQ computes is free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.
HTML: https://etfiq.com/funds/ttt/tracking/