# TSMX Tracking Error: Up vs Down Days

> Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, TSMX missed two times TSM's daily return by 16.0 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

Data as of Nov 4, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

As of Nov 4, 2026 . Rebuilt every trading night.

## TSMX daily tracking

Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, TSMX missed two times TSM's daily return by 16.0 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

| Window | Read on | Average daily miss, bp | Signed average, bp | Tracking error | Up days, bp | Down days, bp | Up less down, bp | Confidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026: 17 of 22 days, from Oct 7, 2026 | NAV (stated) | 4.4 | −4.4 | 0.42% | −4.3 (6 days) | −4.5 (11 days) | +0.2 | Not enough days |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026, 22 daily returns | closing price | 19.5 | −5.4 | 3.74% | −10.1 (9 days) | −2.2 (13 days) | −7.9 | Not enough days |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, 63 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 16.0 | −4.5 | 3.20% | −5.2 (35 days) | −3.6 (28 days) | −1.6 | Not significant (t −0.3) |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026, 124 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 16.5 | −4.7 | 3.19% | −7.3 (65 days) | −1.8 (59 days) | −5.5 | Not significant (t −1.5) |
| 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, 251 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 16.2 | −4.7 | 3.19% | −6.2 (132 days) | −3.1 (119 days) | −3.0 | Not significant (t −1.2) |

### TSMX's largest daily misses

The 5 days TSMX strayed furthest from its daily target in the 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, each on its NAV where ETFIQ holds it, else its closing price.

| # | Day | Read on | TSM moved | Target | TSMX returned | Miss |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Apr 2, 2026 | closing price | −0.72% | −1.43% | −2.07% | −0.64 pts |
| 2 | Jan 22, 2026 | closing price | +0.38% | +0.77% | +0.16% | −0.61 pts |
| 3 | Jan 21, 2026 | closing price | −0.32% | −0.64% | −0.04% | +0.60 pts |
| 4 | Jun 30, 2026 | closing price | +4.94% | +9.87% | +9.33% | −0.55 pts |
| 5 | Jul 1, 2026 | closing price | −6.98% | −13.96% | −13.46% | +0.50 pts |

### Method

The daily miss is TSMX's return each day less two times TSM's return that day. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Each window is read twice where ETFIQ holds both NAVs: on NAVs, and on closing prices. It is stated on the closing price because NAVs for 17 of the 63 sessions. TSMX ranks 104 of 494 2x leveraged ETFs on its 90-day average daily miss. Up days and down days split the miss by whether TSM rose or fell; Significant means the gap is at least two standard errors from zero. The average miss carries its sign: a negative one is what the fund kept below its target each day, its fees and financing among it. 1 NAV day was held out, where the NAV and the closing price disagreed about the day: Nov 3, 2026. Not every fund here has traded for a year, and a number over eight months does not order against one over twelve. This page lists each fund with its window and dates instead of ranking them. It becomes a ranking on the night four of them share a full year. Every window ETFIQ can measure for TSMX is listed.

### Where to next

### Sources

Links are sources, not endorsements.

A ranking is not a recommendation or an opinion. ETFIQ is an independent publisher, not an adviser. Standards and sources

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Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ, TSMX daily tracking, listed by window, data as of Nov 4, 2026. https://etfiq.com/funds/tsmx/tracking/
Licence: https://etfiq.com/license/ Data ETFIQ computes is free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.
HTML: https://etfiq.com/funds/tsmx/tracking/