# TSMU Tracking Error: Up vs Down Days

> Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, TSMU missed two times TSM's daily return by 24.8 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

Data as of Nov 4, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

As of Nov 4, 2026 . Rebuilt every trading night.

## TSMU daily tracking

Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, TSMU missed two times TSM's daily return by 24.8 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

| Window | Read on | Average daily miss, bp | Signed average, bp | Tracking error | Up days, bp | Down days, bp | Up less down, bp | Confidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026: 11 of 22 days, from Oct 16, 2026 | NAV | 5.8 | −5.8 | 0.54% | −4.7 (6 days) | −7.1 (5 days) | +2.4 | Not enough days |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026, 22 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 29.3 | −8.7 | 5.64% | −8.1 (9 days) | −9.2 (13 days) | +1.1 | Not enough days |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026: 12 of 63 days, from Sep 11, 2026 | NAV | 6.4 | −6.4 | 0.62% | −5.9 (7 days) | −7.1 (5 days) | +1.1 | Not enough days |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, 63 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 24.8 | −7.2 | 4.83% | −10.4 (35 days) | −3.2 (28 days) | −7.3 | Not significant (t −1.0) |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026, 124 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 26.7 | −6.6 | 5.28% | −11.0 (65 days) | −1.8 (59 days) | −9.2 | Not significant (t −1.5) |
| 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, 251 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 26.3 | −6.5 | 5.28% | −9.8 (132 days) | −2.9 (119 days) | −7.0 | Not significant (t −1.7) |

### TSMU's largest daily misses

The 5 days TSMU strayed furthest from its daily target in the 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, each on its NAV where ETFIQ holds it, else its closing price.

| # | Day | Read on | TSM moved | Target | TSMU returned | Miss |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Nov 28, 2025 | closing price | +0.53% | +1.07% | +0.20% | −0.87 pts |
| 2 | Mar 13, 2026 | closing price | +0.48% | +0.95% | +0.09% | −0.86 pts |
| 3 | Apr 8, 2026 | closing price | +5.96% | +11.92% | +11.10% | −0.82 pts |
| 4 | Jul 22, 2026 | closing price | −0.80% | −1.60% | −2.42% | −0.82 pts |
| 5 | Oct 23, 2026 | closing price | +1.49% | +2.99% | +2.18% | −0.81 pts |

### Method

The daily miss is TSMU's return each day less two times TSM's return that day. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Each window is read twice where ETFIQ holds both NAVs: on NAVs, and on closing prices. It is stated on the closing price because NAVs for 12 of the 63 sessions. TSMU ranks 232 of 494 2x leveraged ETFs on its 90-day average daily miss. Up days and down days split the miss by whether TSM rose or fell; Significant means the gap is at least two standard errors from zero. The average miss carries its sign: a negative one is what the fund kept below its target each day, its fees and financing among it. Not every fund here has traded for a year, and a number over eight months does not order against one over twelve. This page lists each fund with its window and dates instead of ranking them. It becomes a ranking on the night four of them share a full year. Every window ETFIQ can measure for TSMU is listed.

### Where to next

### Sources

Links are sources, not endorsements.

A ranking is not a recommendation or an opinion. ETFIQ is an independent publisher, not an adviser. Standards and sources

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Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ, TSMU daily tracking, listed by window, data as of Nov 4, 2026. https://etfiq.com/funds/tsmu/tracking/
Licence: https://etfiq.com/license/ Data ETFIQ computes is free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.
HTML: https://etfiq.com/funds/tsmu/tracking/