# TSMG Tracking Error: Up vs Down Days

> Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, TSMG missed two times TSM's daily return by 23.5 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

Data as of Nov 4, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

As of Nov 4, 2026 . Rebuilt every trading night.

## TSMG daily tracking

Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, TSMG missed two times TSM's daily return by 23.5 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

| Window | Read on | Average daily miss, bp | Signed average, bp | Tracking error | Up days, bp | Down days, bp | Up less down, bp | Confidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026, 22 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 32.7 | −7.1 | 6.10% | −16.7 (9 days) | −0.4 (13 days) | −16.4 | Not enough days |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, 63 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 23.5 | −5.6 | 4.78% | −9.6 (35 days) | −0.7 (28 days) | −8.9 | Not significant (t −1.2) |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026, 124 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 25.8 | −5.0 | 5.23% | −6.9 (65 days) | −2.8 (59 days) | −4.2 | Not significant (t −0.7) |
| 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, 251 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 26.9 | −4.5 | 5.35% | −3.7 (132 days) | −5.5 (119 days) | +1.7 | Not significant (t 0.4) |

### TSMG's largest daily misses

The 5 days TSMG strayed furthest from its daily target in the 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, each on its NAV where ETFIQ holds it, else its closing price.

| # | Day | Read on | TSM moved | Target | TSMG returned | Miss |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Jun 26, 2026 | closing price | −0.61% | −1.21% | −2.06% | −0.84 pts |
| 2 | Apr 2, 2026 | closing price | −0.72% | −1.43% | −2.27% | −0.83 pts |
| 3 | Nov 28, 2025 | closing price | +0.53% | +1.07% | +0.29% | −0.78 pts |
| 4 | Dec 22, 2025 | closing price | +1.50% | +3.00% | +2.22% | −0.78 pts |
| 5 | Oct 23, 2026 | closing price | +1.49% | +2.99% | +2.21% | −0.78 pts |

### Method

The daily miss is TSMG's return each day less two times TSM's return that day. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Each window is read twice where ETFIQ holds both NAVs: on NAVs, and on closing prices. It is stated on the closing price because its NAV or its target's is not struck at the 4:00 p.m. close. TSMG ranks 213 of 494 2x leveraged ETFs on its 90-day average daily miss. Up days and down days split the miss by whether TSM rose or fell; Significant means the gap is at least two standard errors from zero. The average miss carries its sign: a negative one is what the fund kept below its target each day, its fees and financing among it. Not every fund here has traded for a year, and a number over eight months does not order against one over twelve. This page lists each fund with its window and dates instead of ranking them. It becomes a ranking on the night four of them share a full year. Every window ETFIQ can measure for TSMG is listed.

### Where to next

### Sources

Links are sources, not endorsements.

A ranking is not a recommendation or an opinion. ETFIQ is an independent publisher, not an adviser. Standards and sources

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Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ, TSMG daily tracking, listed by window, data as of Nov 4, 2026. https://etfiq.com/funds/tsmg/tracking/
Licence: https://etfiq.com/license/ Data ETFIQ computes is free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.
HTML: https://etfiq.com/funds/tsmg/tracking/