# SPAX Tracking Error: Up vs Down Days

> Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, SPAX missed two times SPCX's daily return by 16.3 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

Data as of Nov 4, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

As of Nov 4, 2026 . Rebuilt every trading night.

## SPAX daily tracking

Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, SPAX missed two times SPCX's daily return by 16.3 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

| Window | Read on | Average daily miss, bp | Signed average, bp | Tracking error | Up days, bp | Down days, bp | Up less down, bp | Confidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026: 13 of 22 days, from Oct 16, 2026 | NAV | 7.4 | −6.2 | 1.00% | −6.5 (6 days) | −5.9 (7 days) | −0.6 | Not enough days |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026, 22 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 19.7 | −7.2 | 3.96% | −7.9 (9 days) | −6.7 (13 days) | −1.2 | Not enough days |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, 63 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 16.3 | −5.5 | 3.14% | −6.9 (31 days) | −4.1 (32 days) | −2.8 | Not significant (t −0.6) |

### SPAX's largest daily misses

The 5 days SPAX strayed furthest from its daily target in the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, each on its NAV where ETFIQ holds it, else its closing price.

| # | Day | Read on | SPCX moved | Target | SPAX returned | Miss |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Oct 15, 2026 | closing price | −2.33% | −4.65% | −5.19% | −0.54 pts |
| 2 | Sep 16, 2026 | closing price | +5.15% | +10.30% | +9.91% | −0.39 pts |
| 3 | Aug 14, 2026 | closing price | −0.91% | −1.83% | −2.15% | −0.32 pts |
| 4 | Aug 20, 2026 | closing price | −4.05% | −8.09% | −8.38% | −0.29 pts |
| 5 | Sep 15, 2026 | closing price | −3.15% | −6.29% | −6.01% | +0.28 pts |

### Method

The daily miss is SPAX's return each day less two times SPCX's return that day. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Each window is read twice where ETFIQ holds both NAVs: on NAVs, and on closing prices. It is stated on the closing price because NAVs for 13 of the 63 sessions. SPAX ranks 107 of 494 2x leveraged ETFs on its 90-day average daily miss. Up days and down days split the miss by whether SPCX rose or fell; Significant means the gap is at least two standard errors from zero. The average miss carries its sign: a negative one is what the fund kept below its target each day, its fees and financing among it. Not every fund here has traded for a year, and a number over eight months does not order against one over twelve. This page lists each fund with its window and dates instead of ranking them. It becomes a ranking on the night four of them share a full year. Every window ETFIQ can measure for SPAX is listed.

### Where to next

### Sources

Links are sources, not endorsements.

A ranking is not a recommendation or an opinion. ETFIQ is an independent publisher, not an adviser. Standards and sources

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Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ, SPAX daily tracking, listed by window, data as of Nov 4, 2026. https://etfiq.com/funds/spax/tracking/
Licence: https://etfiq.com/license/ Data ETFIQ computes is free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.
HTML: https://etfiq.com/funds/spax/tracking/