# SPAL Tracking Error: Up vs Down Days

> Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, SPAL missed two times SpaceX's daily return by 15.2 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

Data as of Nov 4, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

As of Nov 4, 2026 . Rebuilt every trading night.

## SPAL daily tracking

Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, SPAL missed two times SpaceX's daily return by 15.2 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

| Window | Read on | Average daily miss, bp | Signed average, bp | Tracking error | Up days, bp | Down days, bp | Up less down, bp | Confidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026, 22 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 14.4 | −2.3 | 3.06% | +6.1 (9 days) | −8.1 (13 days) | +14.2 | Not enough days |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, 63 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 15.2 | −3.8 | 3.06% | −1.9 (31 days) | −5.6 (32 days) | +3.7 | Not significant (t 0.8) |

### SPAL's largest daily misses

The 5 days SPAL strayed furthest from its daily target in the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, each on its NAV where ETFIQ holds it, else its closing price.

| # | Day | Read on | SpaceX moved | Target | SPAL returned | Miss |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Aug 14, 2026 | closing price | −0.91% | −1.83% | −2.38% | −0.55 pts |
| 2 | Aug 17, 2026 | closing price | +4.45% | +8.90% | +9.36% | +0.46 pts |
| 3 | Oct 21, 2026 | closing price | +7.79% | +15.59% | +16.03% | +0.44 pts |
| 4 | Nov 4, 2026 | closing price | −3.81% | −7.63% | −8.01% | −0.38 pts |
| 5 | Aug 10, 2026 | closing price | +4.23% | +8.46% | +8.09% | −0.37 pts |

### Method

The daily miss is SPAL's return each day less two times SpaceX's return that day. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Each window is read twice where ETFIQ holds both NAVs: on NAVs, and on closing prices. It is stated on the closing price because 4 days with a NAV for the fund and its target. SPAL ranks 88 of 494 2x leveraged ETFs on its 90-day average daily miss. Up days and down days split the miss by whether SpaceX rose or fell; Significant means the gap is at least two standard errors from zero. The average miss carries its sign: a negative one is what the fund kept below its target each day, its fees and financing among it. Not every fund here has traded for a year, and a number over eight months does not order against one over twelve. This page lists each fund with its window and dates instead of ranking them. It becomes a ranking on the night four of them share a full year. Every window ETFIQ can measure for SPAL is listed.

### Where to next

### Sources

Links are sources, not endorsements.

A ranking is not a recommendation or an opinion. ETFIQ is an independent publisher, not an adviser. Standards and sources

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Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ, SPAL daily tracking, listed by window, data as of Nov 4, 2026. https://etfiq.com/funds/spal/tracking/
Licence: https://etfiq.com/license/ Data ETFIQ computes is free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.
HTML: https://etfiq.com/funds/spal/tracking/