# SMST Tracking Error: Up vs Down Days

> Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, SMST missed minus two times MSTR's daily return by 25.7 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

Data as of Nov 4, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

As of Nov 4, 2026 . Rebuilt every trading night.

## SMST daily tracking

Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, SMST missed minus two times MSTR's daily return by 25.7 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

| Window | Read on | Average daily miss, bp | Signed average, bp | Tracking error | Up days, bp | Down days, bp | Up less down, bp | Confidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026: 20 of 22 days, from Oct 7, 2026 | NAV (stated) | 10.1 | −10.1 | 1.17% | −10.8 (9 days) | −9.6 (11 days) | −1.2 | Not enough days |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026, 22 daily returns | closing price | 33.9 | −8.9 | 6.84% | −18.4 (11 days) | +0.7 (11 days) | −19.1 | Not significant (t −1.0) |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, 63 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 25.7 | −7.3 | 5.20% | −6.6 (29 days) | −7.9 (34 days) | +1.3 | Not significant (t 0.2) |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026, 124 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 27.3 | −7.3 | 5.42% | −7.1 (53 days) | −7.6 (70 days) | +0.6 | Not significant (t 0.1) |
| 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, 251 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 24.0 | −6.8 | 4.85% | −7.6 (111 days) | −6.2 (139 days) | −1.4 | Not significant (t −0.4) |

### SMST's largest daily misses

The 5 days SMST strayed furthest from its daily target in the 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, each on its NAV where ETFIQ holds it, else its closing price.

| # | Day | Read on | MSTR moved | Target | SMST returned | Miss |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Feb 5, 2026 | closing price | −17.12% | +34.24% | +35.19% | +0.95 pts |
| 2 | Jun 29, 2026 | closing price | +12.60% | −25.20% | −26.15% | −0.95 pts |
| 3 | Jun 1, 2026 | closing price | −5.85% | +11.70% | +12.53% | +0.83 pts |
| 4 | Feb 27, 2026 | closing price | −2.92% | +5.85% | +5.04% | −0.80 pts |
| 5 | Jul 31, 2026 | closing price | −4.56% | +9.13% | +8.37% | −0.76 pts |

### Method

The daily miss is SMST's return each day less minus two times MSTR's return that day. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Each window is read twice where ETFIQ holds both NAVs: on NAVs, and on closing prices. It is stated on the closing price because NAVs for 20 of the 63 sessions. SMST ranks 56 of 75 2x inverse ETFs on its 90-day average daily miss. Up days and down days split the miss by whether MSTR rose or fell; Significant means the gap is at least two standard errors from zero. The average miss carries its sign: a negative one is what the fund kept below its target each day, its fees and financing among it. Not every fund here has traded for a year, and a number over eight months does not order against one over twelve. This page lists each fund with its window and dates instead of ranking them. It becomes a ranking on the night four of them share a full year. Every window ETFIQ can measure for SMST is listed.

### Where to next

### Sources

Links are sources, not endorsements.

A ranking is not a recommendation or an opinion. ETFIQ is an independent publisher, not an adviser. Standards and sources

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Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ, SMST daily tracking, listed by window, data as of Nov 4, 2026. https://etfiq.com/funds/smst/tracking/
Licence: https://etfiq.com/license/ Data ETFIQ computes is free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.
HTML: https://etfiq.com/funds/smst/tracking/