# SMDD Tracking Error: Up vs Down Days

> Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, SMDD missed minus three times MidCap400's daily return by 5.9 basis points a day on average, on its NAV.

Data as of Nov 4, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

As of Nov 4, 2026 . Rebuilt every trading night.

## SMDD daily tracking

Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, SMDD missed minus three times MidCap400's daily return by 5.9 basis points a day on average, on its NAV.

| Window | Read on | Average daily miss, bp | Signed average, bp | Tracking error | Up days, bp | Down days, bp | Up less down, bp | Confidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026: 21 of 22 days, from Oct 7, 2026 | NAV (stated) | 5.9 | +5.1 | 0.83% | +4.0 (14 days) | +7.4 (7 days) | −3.4 | Not enough days |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026, 22 daily returns | closing price | 13.3 | +5.7 | 2.91% | +3.3 (15 days) | +10.9 (7 days) | −7.7 | Not enough days |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026: 61 of 63 days, from Aug 7, 2026 | NAV (stated) | 5.9 | +5.6 | 0.63% | +4.9 (32 days) | +6.3 (29 days) | −1.3 | Not significant (t −1.3) |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, 63 daily returns | closing price | 16.6 | +6.2 | 3.55% | +3.6 (34 days) | +9.1 (29 days) | −5.5 | Not significant (t −0.9) |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026: 122 of 124 days, from May 11, 2026 | NAV (stated) | 5.6 | +5.4 | 0.59% | +4.3 (64 days) | +6.6 (58 days) | −2.3 | Significant (t −3.6) |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026, 124 daily returns | closing price | 18.5 | +5.5 | 3.92% | +7.1 (66 days) | +3.6 (58 days) | +3.5 | Not significant (t 0.8) |
| 1 year to Nov 4, 2026: 249 of 251 days, from Nov 5, 2025 | NAV (stated) | 5.5 | +5.4 | 0.57% | +4.1 (138 days) | +6.9 (111 days) | −2.8 | Significant (t −6.5) |
| 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, 251 daily returns | closing price | 18.4 | +5.5 | 3.78% | +5.8 (137 days) | +5.2 (114 days) | +0.6 | Not significant (t 0.2) |

### SMDD's largest daily misses

The 5 days SMDD strayed furthest from its daily target in the 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, each on its NAV where ETFIQ holds it, else its closing price.

| # | Day | Read on | MidCap400 moved | Target | SMDD returned | Miss |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Mar 20, 2026 | NAV | −2.22% | +6.67% | +6.83% | +0.16 pts |
| 2 | Mar 6, 2026 | NAV | −2.36% | +7.08% | +7.22% | +0.14 pts |
| 3 | Jun 5, 2026 | NAV | −1.90% | +5.70% | +5.84% | +0.14 pts |
| 4 | Jul 2, 2026 | NAV | −0.43% | +1.30% | +1.44% | +0.14 pts |
| 5 | Oct 5, 2026 | closing price | +0.39% | −1.17% | −1.03% | +0.14 pts |

### Method

The daily miss is SMDD's return each day less minus three times MidCap400's return that day. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Each window is read twice where ETFIQ holds both NAVs: on NAVs, and on closing prices. SMDD ranks 16 of 19 3x inverse ETFs on its 90-day average daily miss. Up days and down days split the miss by whether MidCap400 rose or fell; Significant means the gap is at least two standard errors from zero. The average miss carries its sign: a negative one is what the fund kept below its target each day, its fees and financing among it. MidCap400 is itself an ETF, so its own fee and tracking are inside the miss. Not every fund here has traded for a year, and a number over eight months does not order against one over twelve. This page lists each fund with its window and dates instead of ranking them. It becomes a ranking on the night four of them share a full year. Every window ETFIQ can measure for SMDD is listed.

### Where to next

### Sources

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A ranking is not a recommendation or an opinion. ETFIQ is an independent publisher, not an adviser. Standards and sources

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Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ, SMDD daily tracking, listed by window, data as of Nov 4, 2026. https://etfiq.com/funds/smdd/tracking/
Licence: https://etfiq.com/license/ Data ETFIQ computes is free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.
HTML: https://etfiq.com/funds/smdd/tracking/