# SMCZ Tracking Error: Up vs Down Days

> Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, SMCZ missed minus two times SMCI's daily return by 38.4 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

Data as of Nov 4, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

As of Nov 4, 2026 . Rebuilt every trading night.

## SMCZ daily tracking

Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, SMCZ missed minus two times SMCI's daily return by 38.4 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

| Window | Read on | Average daily miss, bp | Signed average, bp | Tracking error | Up days, bp | Down days, bp | Up less down, bp | Confidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026: 20 of 22 days, from Oct 7, 2026 | NAV (stated) | 22.3 | −19.8 | 4.80% | −5.2 (7 days) | −27.7 (13 days) | +22.5 | Not enough days |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026, 22 daily returns | closing price | 45.7 | −17.9 | 9.33% | −17.7 (8 days) | −18.1 (14 days) | +0.3 | Not enough days |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, 63 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 38.4 | −11.9 | 7.99% | −6.7 (32 days) | −17.2 (31 days) | +10.4 | Not significant (t 0.8) |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026, 124 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 39.8 | −11.8 | 8.73% | −10.3 (57 days) | −12.7 (66 days) | +2.4 | Not significant (t 0.2) |
| 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, 251 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 37.2 | −11.8 | 8.12% | −8.9 (113 days) | −13.9 (136 days) | +5.0 | Not significant (t 0.8) |

### SMCZ's largest daily misses

The 5 days SMCZ strayed furthest from its daily target in the 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, each on its NAV where ETFIQ holds it, else its closing price.

| # | Day | Read on | SMCI moved | Target | SMCZ returned | Miss |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Jun 29, 2026 | closing price | −8.10% | +16.19% | +18.22% | +2.03 pts |
| 2 | Apr 6, 2026 | closing price | −5.04% | +10.08% | +8.10% | −1.97 pts |
| 3 | Jun 12, 2026 | closing price | −4.72% | +9.45% | +7.56% | −1.89 pts |
| 4 | Apr 29, 2026 | closing price | −3.41% | +6.83% | +5.22% | −1.61 pts |
| 5 | Mar 20, 2026 | closing price | −33.32% | +66.65% | +65.05% | −1.59 pts |

### Method

The daily miss is SMCZ's return each day less minus two times SMCI's return that day. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Each window is read twice where ETFIQ holds both NAVs: on NAVs, and on closing prices. It is stated on the closing price because NAVs for 20 of the 63 sessions. SMCZ ranks 67 of 75 2x inverse ETFs on its 90-day average daily miss. Up days and down days split the miss by whether SMCI rose or fell; Significant means the gap is at least two standard errors from zero. The average miss carries its sign: a negative one is what the fund kept below its target each day, its fees and financing among it. Not every fund here has traded for a year, and a number over eight months does not order against one over twelve. This page lists each fund with its window and dates instead of ranking them. It becomes a ranking on the night four of them share a full year. Every window ETFIQ can measure for SMCZ is listed.

### Where to next

### Sources

Links are sources, not endorsements.

A ranking is not a recommendation or an opinion. ETFIQ is an independent publisher, not an adviser. Standards and sources

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Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ, SMCZ daily tracking, listed by window, data as of Nov 4, 2026. https://etfiq.com/funds/smcz/tracking/
Licence: https://etfiq.com/license/ Data ETFIQ computes is free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.
HTML: https://etfiq.com/funds/smcz/tracking/