# SMCL Tracking Error: Up vs Down Days

> Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, SMCL missed two times SMCI's daily return by 18.1 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

Data as of Nov 4, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

As of Nov 4, 2026 . Rebuilt every trading night.

## SMCL daily tracking

Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, SMCL missed two times SMCI's daily return by 18.1 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

| Window | Read on | Average daily miss, bp | Signed average, bp | Tracking error | Up days, bp | Down days, bp | Up less down, bp | Confidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026: 11 of 22 days, from Oct 16, 2026 | NAV | 7.3 | −7.3 | 0.71% | −5.7 (6 days) | −9.3 (5 days) | +3.6 | Not enough days |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026, 22 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 16.1 | −5.8 | 3.17% | −2.4 (8 days) | −7.8 (14 days) | +5.4 | Not enough days |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026: 12 of 63 days, from Sep 11, 2026 | NAV | 8.4 | −8.4 | 0.90% | −7.7 (7 days) | −9.3 (5 days) | +1.6 | Not enough days |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, 63 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 18.1 | −8.2 | 4.04% | −12.4 (32 days) | −3.8 (31 days) | −8.7 | Not significant (t −1.4) |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026, 124 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 17.9 | −8.6 | 3.68% | −10.1 (57 days) | −6.8 (66 days) | −3.3 | Not significant (t −0.8) |
| 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, 251 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 22.8 | −10.3 | 4.54% | −14.6 (113 days) | −6.4 (136 days) | −8.2 | Significant (t −2.2) |

### SMCL's largest daily misses

The 5 days SMCL strayed furthest from its daily target in the 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, each on its NAV where ETFIQ holds it, else its closing price.

| # | Day | Read on | SMCI moved | Target | SMCL returned | Miss |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Aug 12, 2026 | closing price | +19.02% | +38.04% | +36.86% | −1.18 pts |
| 2 | Feb 4, 2026 | closing price | +13.78% | +27.57% | +26.52% | −1.05 pts |
| 3 | Mar 23, 2026 | closing price | +5.11% | +10.23% | +11.19% | +0.96 pts |
| 4 | Apr 9, 2026 | closing price | −0.64% | −1.28% | −2.23% | −0.95 pts |
| 5 | Mar 27, 2026 | closing price | −1.08% | −2.16% | −3.03% | −0.87 pts |

### Method

The daily miss is SMCL's return each day less two times SMCI's return that day. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Each window is read twice where ETFIQ holds both NAVs: on NAVs, and on closing prices. It is stated on the closing price because NAVs for 12 of the 63 sessions. SMCL ranks 137 of 494 2x leveraged ETFs on its 90-day average daily miss. Up days and down days split the miss by whether SMCI rose or fell; Significant means the gap is at least two standard errors from zero. The average miss carries its sign: a negative one is what the fund kept below its target each day, its fees and financing among it. Not every fund here has traded for a year, and a number over eight months does not order against one over twelve. This page lists each fund with its window and dates instead of ranking them. It becomes a ranking on the night four of them share a full year. Every window ETFIQ can measure for SMCL is listed.

### Where to next

### Sources

Links are sources, not endorsements.

A ranking is not a recommendation or an opinion. ETFIQ is an independent publisher, not an adviser. Standards and sources

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Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ, SMCL daily tracking, listed by window, data as of Nov 4, 2026. https://etfiq.com/funds/smcl/tracking/
Licence: https://etfiq.com/license/ Data ETFIQ computes is free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.
HTML: https://etfiq.com/funds/smcl/tracking/