# SDS Tracking Error: Up vs Down Days

> Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, SDS missed minus two times S&P500's daily return by 4.3 basis points a day on average, on its NAV.

Data as of Nov 3, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

As of Nov 3, 2026 . Rebuilt every trading night.

## SDS daily tracking

Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, SDS missed minus two times S&P500's daily return by 4.3 basis points a day on average, on its NAV.

| Window | Read on | Average daily miss, bp | Signed average, bp | Tracking error | Up days, bp | Down days, bp | Up less down, bp | Confidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026: 20 of 22 days, from Oct 7, 2026 | NAV (stated) | 4.4 | +4.4 | 0.49% | +4.0 (9 days) | +4.8 (11 days) | −0.8 | Not enough days |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026, 22 daily returns | closing price | 4.5 | +4.3 | 0.74% | +3.9 (11 days) | +4.7 (11 days) | −0.8 | Not significant (t −0.4) |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026: 60 of 63 days, from Aug 7, 2026 | NAV (stated) | 4.3 | +4.3 | 0.50% | +4.6 (25 days) | +4.0 (35 days) | +0.5 | Not significant (t 0.7) |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, 63 daily returns | closing price | 4.7 | +4.2 | 0.75% | +5.1 (29 days) | +3.3 (34 days) | +1.8 | Not significant (t 1.5) |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026: 121 of 124 days, from May 11, 2026 | NAV (stated) | 4.3 | +4.2 | 0.52% | +4.4 (59 days) | +4.1 (62 days) | +0.3 | Not significant (t 0.4) |
| 180 days to Nov 4, 2026, 124 daily returns | closing price | 6.1 | +4.2 | 1.42% | +6.2 (62 days) | +2.1 (62 days) | +4.0 | Significant (t 2.6) |
| 1 year to Nov 4, 2026: 246 of 251 days, from Nov 5, 2025 | NAV (stated) | 4.3 | +4.2 | 0.47% | +4.3 (128 days) | +4.1 (118 days) | +0.2 | Not significant (t 0.5) |
| 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, 251 daily returns | closing price | 5.3 | +4.2 | 1.09% | +5.5 (131 days) | +2.7 (120 days) | +2.8 | Significant (t 3.2) |

### SDS's largest daily misses

The 5 days SDS strayed furthest from its daily target in the 1 year to Nov 4, 2026, each on its NAV where ETFIQ holds it, else its closing price.

| # | Day | Read on | S&P500 moved | Target | SDS returned | Miss |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Jul 2, 2026 | NAV | 0.00% | −0.01% | +0.15% | +0.15 pts |
| 2 | Sep 4, 2026 | NAV | −0.36% | +0.72% | +0.85% | +0.13 pts |
| 3 | May 22, 2026 | NAV | +0.38% | −0.75% | −0.64% | +0.12 pts |
| 4 | Jun 26, 2026 | NAV | −0.05% | +0.09% | +0.21% | +0.12 pts |
| 5 | Jan 16, 2026 | NAV | −0.06% | +0.12% | +0.23% | +0.11 pts |

### Method

The daily miss is SDS's return each day less minus two times S&P500's return that day. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Each window is read twice where ETFIQ holds both NAVs: on NAVs, and on closing prices. SDS ranks 1 of 75 2x inverse ETFs on its 90-day average daily miss. Up days and down days split the miss by whether S&P500 rose or fell; Significant means the gap is at least two standard errors from zero. The average miss carries its sign: a negative one is what the fund kept below its target each day, its fees and financing among it. S&P500 is itself an ETF, so its own fee and tracking are inside the miss. Not every fund here has traded for a year, and a number over eight months does not order against one over twelve. This page lists each fund with its window and dates instead of ranking them. It becomes a ranking on the night four of them share a full year. Every window ETFIQ can measure for SDS is listed.

### Where to next

### Sources

Links are sources, not endorsements.

A ranking is not a recommendation or an opinion. ETFIQ is an independent publisher, not an adviser. Standards and sources

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Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ, SDS daily tracking, listed by window, data as of Nov 3, 2026. https://etfiq.com/funds/sds/tracking/
Licence: https://etfiq.com/license/ Data ETFIQ computes is free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.
HTML: https://etfiq.com/funds/sds/tracking/