# ORAC Tracking Error: Up vs Down Days

> Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, ORAC missed two times ORCL's daily return by 50.8 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

Data as of Nov 4, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

As of Nov 4, 2026 . Rebuilt every trading night.

## ORAC daily tracking

Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, ORAC missed two times ORCL's daily return by 50.8 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

| Window | Read on | Average daily miss, bp | Signed average, bp | Tracking error | Up days, bp | Down days, bp | Up less down, bp | Confidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026: 20 of 22 days, from Oct 7, 2026 | NAV (stated) | 11.4 | −1.4 | 2.67% | −3.4 (9 days) | +0.1 (11 days) | −3.5 | Not enough days |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026, 22 daily returns | closing price | 43.9 | +6.2 | 9.18% | +31.2 (10 days) | −14.7 (12 days) | +46.0 | Not significant (t 1.9) |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, 63 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 50.8 | −1.4 | 9.83% | +7.6 (31 days) | −10.2 (32 days) | +17.8 | Not significant (t 1.1) |

### ORAC's largest daily misses

The 5 days ORAC strayed furthest from its daily target in the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, each on its NAV where ETFIQ holds it, else its closing price.

| # | Day | Read on | ORCL moved | Target | ORAC returned | Miss |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Sep 14, 2026 | closing price | −3.65% | −7.31% | −8.91% | −1.61 pts |
| 2 | Sep 4, 2026 | closing price | +3.08% | +6.15% | +5.05% | −1.11 pts |
| 3 | Sep 10, 2026 | closing price | −5.38% | −10.75% | −9.72% | +1.03 pts |
| 4 | Sep 15, 2026 | closing price | −3.07% | −6.13% | −5.13% | +1.00 pts |
| 5 | Aug 21, 2026 | closing price | +3.10% | +6.19% | +7.19% | +0.99 pts |

### Method

The daily miss is ORAC's return each day less two times ORCL's return that day. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Each window is read twice where ETFIQ holds both NAVs: on NAVs, and on closing prices. It is stated on the closing price because NAVs for 20 of the 63 sessions. ORAC ranks 434 of 494 2x leveraged ETFs on its 90-day average daily miss. Up days and down days split the miss by whether ORCL rose or fell; Significant means the gap is at least two standard errors from zero. The average miss carries its sign: a negative one is what the fund kept below its target each day, its fees and financing among it. Not every fund here has traded for a year, and a number over eight months does not order against one over twelve. This page lists each fund with its window and dates instead of ranking them. It becomes a ranking on the night four of them share a full year. Every window ETFIQ can measure for ORAC is listed.

### Where to next

### Sources

Links are sources, not endorsements.

A ranking is not a recommendation or an opinion. ETFIQ is an independent publisher, not an adviser. Standards and sources

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Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ, ORAC daily tracking, listed by window, data as of Nov 4, 2026. https://etfiq.com/funds/orac/tracking/
Licence: https://etfiq.com/license/ Data ETFIQ computes is free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.
HTML: https://etfiq.com/funds/orac/tracking/