# ONTX Tracking Error: Up vs Down Days

> Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, ONTX missed two times ONTO's daily return by 63.6 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

Data as of Nov 4, 2026. Rebuilt every trading night.

As of Nov 4, 2026 . Rebuilt every trading night.

## ONTX daily tracking

Over the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, ONTX missed two times ONTO's daily return by 63.6 basis points a day on average, on its closing price.

| Window | Read on | Average daily miss, bp | Signed average, bp | Tracking error | Up days, bp | Down days, bp | Up less down, bp | Confidence |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026: 20 of 22 days, from Oct 7, 2026 | NAV (stated) | 12.4 | −1.8 | 2.98% | −10.0 (8 days) | +3.6 (12 days) | −13.6 | Not enough days |
| 30 days to Nov 4, 2026, 22 daily returns | closing price | 58.3 | −6.7 | 11.37% | −11.3 (8 days) | −4.0 (14 days) | −7.2 | Not enough days |
| 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, 63 daily returns | closing price (stated) | 63.6 | −10.7 | 14.82% | −29.4 (29 days) | +5.3 (34 days) | −34.7 | Not significant (t −1.4) |

### ONTX's largest daily misses

The 5 days ONTX strayed furthest from its daily target in the 90 days to Nov 4, 2026, each on its NAV where ETFIQ holds it, else its closing price.

| # | Day | Read on | ONTO moved | Target | ONTX returned | Miss |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | Aug 7, 2026 | closing price | +14.74% | +29.48% | +24.94% | −4.54 pts |
| 2 | Sep 21, 2026 | closing price | +4.76% | +9.53% | +7.28% | −2.25 pts |
| 3 | Aug 10, 2026 | closing price | −5.50% | −11.00% | −8.75% | +2.24 pts |
| 4 | Aug 19, 2026 | closing price | −5.05% | −10.09% | −8.85% | +1.24 pts |
| 5 | Aug 11, 2026 | closing price | +9.76% | +19.52% | +18.32% | −1.20 pts |

### Method

The daily miss is ONTX's return each day less two times ONTO's return that day. A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point. Each window is read twice where ETFIQ holds both NAVs: on NAVs, and on closing prices. It is stated on the closing price because NAVs for 20 of the 63 sessions. ONTX ranks 465 of 494 2x leveraged ETFs on its 90-day average daily miss. Up days and down days split the miss by whether ONTO rose or fell; Significant means the gap is at least two standard errors from zero. The average miss carries its sign: a negative one is what the fund kept below its target each day, its fees and financing among it. Not every fund here has traded for a year, and a number over eight months does not order against one over twelve. This page lists each fund with its window and dates instead of ranking them. It becomes a ranking on the night four of them share a full year. Every window ETFIQ can measure for ONTX is listed.

### Where to next

### Sources

Links are sources, not endorsements.

A ranking is not a recommendation or an opinion. ETFIQ is an independent publisher, not an adviser. Standards and sources

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Source: ETFIQ, independent ETF data. Recomputed nightly from public filings and prices.
Cite: ETFIQ, ONTX daily tracking, listed by window, data as of Nov 4, 2026. https://etfiq.com/funds/ontx/tracking/
Licence: https://etfiq.com/license/ Data ETFIQ computes is free to use with attribution: ETFIQ (etfiq.com). Issuer data stays under its owner's terms.
HTML: https://etfiq.com/funds/ontx/tracking/